AGENDA PARA LA TRANSICION LEADERS COMPLAIN ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000773

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2013
TAGS: PHUM EAID PGOV CU
SUBJECT: AGENDA PARA LA TRANSICION LEADERS COMPLAIN ABOUT
LACK OF RESOURCES

REF: A. HAVANA 760

B. FARRAR E-MAIL 09-18-08

Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Agenda para la Transicion leaders argued
forcefully that lack of resources and the added demands
brought about by the recent hurricanes threaten the viability
of the opposition in Cuba. They urged quick action to get
resources to them. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Agenda para la Transicion leaders Martha Beatriz
Roque (MBR) and Vladimiro Roca complained strongly to P/E
Counselor about the lack of U.S. assistance to Cuba following
hurricanes Gustav and Ike. Though they acknowledged that the
GOC's obstinacy and obstructionism make the situation much
worse, they thought that there should be some way that the
USG could get more funds to the island, though they had no
suggestions as to what means might be available. They again
complained that they had not yet gotten a response to the
letters they had written to the President and to Cuban
President Raul Castro with suggestions for ways to get help
to the Cuban people.


3. (C) The two also expressed concern that money being
collected in the Cuban community in Miami would not be able
to reach people in need. MBR said she had heard on the
radio from Miami than CANF had already sent $250k to Cuba,
and wondered how it had been sent and to whom it had been
delivered. They lamented that their phone calls to CANF had
gone unanswered.


4. (C) The Agenda para la Transicion has been collecting
names of individuals who suffered some serious loss in the
storms, and who would be unlikely to receive any assistance
from the GOC. The list now contains about 400 names and
addresses. The two lamented that, aside from compiling the
list, they have no resources to assist those who have
suffered losses as a result of hurricanes Gustav and Ike.
They requested that assistance from the U.S. be channeled
directly to these individuals as it is certain they will
receive no help from the government of Cuba. Per refs A and
B, USINT has forwarded this list to USAID to work with
grantees to provide assistance.


5. (C) Both argued that the GOC was in the process of
carrying out the recovery from the hurricanes on the backs of
the Cuban people. They said the gasoline price increase
announced the day before Hurricane Ike struck and the likely
increases in food prices will suck resources from ordinary
Cubans and put them in the hands of the government, which
will use them to concentrate recovery efforts on major
infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and the electrical
power grid. Citing our press information sheet and its
mention of the amount of food purchases that have been
licensed, they contended that the USG is complicit with the
GOC in this plot, as food imported from the U.S. will be sold
at inflated prices to raise revenue for the government.


6. (C) All of the members of the Agenda para la Transicion,
but most vocally MBR and Vlad Roca, have been chafing at the
lack of resources available to them ever since the May/June
"scandals" involving alleged payments to the opposition. The
hurricanes have further crystallized their sense that the
dissident movement is being marginalized because of its lack
of resources. They believe their twin rivals in the Miami
Cuban community and the GOC are now in a position to make
them irrelevant to the future of Cuba. The government
profits because the dissidents can no longer produce printed
material, nor travel, nor use electronic media (including
cell phone),for lack of funding. The Miami Cuban community
benefits because it can apply resources on the island, and
can substitute for a moribund home grown opposition.


7. (C) COMMENT: The strong comments regarding "USG
complicity" and the threat from the Miami Cuban community are
mostly a reflection of a genuinely felt fear among many
members of the opposition that the hurricanes have wounded
the political opposition even more than they have the
government, and that the government will benefit from outside
assistance the opposition will not see. As the availability
of resources has declined in the past few months due to
increased GOC pressure, it is true that opposition activity
has also dropped. But it is not clear that lack of resources
is the only problem. Increasingly effective, but not
egregiously heavy-handed, measures by the GOC have also
limited opposition activity. As more of the FY 2008
assistance that is directed toward the opposition comes on

line, however, their present pique hopefully will begin to
diminish.
FARRAR