MGJM01: HURRICANE GUSTAV DEVASTATES WESTERN CUBA

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000717 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2013 TAGS: CU EAID PINR PINS PREL XL XK SUBJECT: MGJM01: HURRICANE GUSTAV DEVASTATES WESTERN CUBA Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Through a combination of official news and contacts with individuals in the affected regions, we can report that it appears that Pinar del Rio province suffered severe damage in Hurricane Gustav, and that housing and infrastructure on the Isla de la Juventud was almost totally destroyed. Still, according to official GOC statements, there were no fatalities and only 19 injuries attributable to the storm. Property damage, including damage to basic infrastructure like bridges, docks and power transmission lines, appears to be extensive. ¶2. (U) Pictures being shown on local television and in newspapers testify to the strength of hurricane Gustav. Houses appear to have been turned into piles of lumber, cultivated fields of platano and other crops are leveled, electrical transmission towers are toppled into crumpled masses of steel as far as the eye can see, and a reinforced concrete building in Isla de la Juventud is reduced to rubble. The accompanying text or voice over acknowledges the heavy damage, but focuses on the success of the government's actions in preventing loss of life and assuring that the losses will be recouped quickly--all thanks to the commitment of all Cubans to the Revolution. ¶3. (C) Efforts to assist the GOC have already begun. Press is reporting that 4 Russian aircraft are on their way to Cuba with relief supplies. COM met with UNDP chief Susan McDade (please protect) who said the UN is looking at providing at least as much assistance as it did following Tropical Storm Noel in November 2007 ($2.3 million). McDade noted, and the Hungarian Ambassador later confirmed to COM, that the European Community had agreed to provide 2 million euros in support to all of the affected Caribbean countries. However, both McDade and the Hungarian ambassador said they believed the GOC would refuse the EC offer. In the past McDade has directed UN members' bilateral offers of assistance to the UN's Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Aid (OCHA). ¶4. (C) For its part, knowing that the GOC will never ask for assistance, and will refuse assistance that does not suit its plans, UNDP asked the GOC what type of support it would not reject and then worked from that base. McDade said the GOC Council of Ministers met Monday night and the GOC told her Tuesday that its most urgent needs in the area of infrastructure are: utility poles, high tension cables, and transformers on the energy front, and tiles, nails, screws, hammers and corrugated aluminum sheeting for housing repair. ¶5. (U) Government run clean-up efforts in the Havana area, which was hit much less hard, have been impressive. While Gustav barely reached tropical storm status in the city, there were many trees down and electric lines cut. For the most part, this damage had been cleaned up by Sunday evening, and the city returned virtually to normal by Monday morning. Classes for the new school year began on Tuesday after a one-day delay. Though we are dependent on the unreliable Cuban media for information, it appears too that there has been a significant mobilization of resources, including units of the armed forces (FAR) to work clean up and repair issues outside of Havana. Interestingly, the public faces of the GOC relief effort have been Machado Ventura and Carlos Lage, not Raul Castro. ¶6. (C) Still, given things like Raul Castro's own statements in his July 26 speech that the GOC is still working on cleaning up after TS Noel, and the apparently much more significant level of damage caused by Gustav, one would have to conclude that it is unlikely the government will have everything under control as quickly as it would like the world to believe. USINT contacts and visa applicants from the area reported near total devastation in the path made by Gustav through Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio. The President of the Baptist Convention of Western Cuba said their pastors on Isla de la Juventud reported 80 percent of the houses of their congregations had been destroyed. ¶7. (C) We are not in a position to make an independent assessment of the damages suffered, nor of the specific short to medium term needs. Nevertheless, we believe that we should attempt to provide support. This will be a challenge. The GOC is unlikely to agree to any level of support from the USG. Private U.S. donations through reputable PVOs such as Catholic Relief Services (CRS) can and should be encouraged. We have spoken with the local CARITAS office here to ascertain what the priority needs are in the short term. In the past CARITAS has provided basic household items, bedding, etc, purchased locally to individuals. CARITAS chief Maritza Sanchez said the most important short term assistance we could provide would be to assist CRS to transport its material support to Cuba. In her view, it would be best if this assistance could be flown directly from the U.S. to Isla de la Juventud. She said GOC authorities had already assured her that the CRS contributions will be allowed free entrance to the country. Sanchez also provided us with a preliminary budget sufficient to assist about 10,000 people of between $275K and $300K. ¶8. (C) Observers here have noted that the GOC is usually pretty quick to provide the basics, e.g., roofing material and lumber, etc., but that even with a roof over their heads, individuals struggle with the loss of all of their possessions. The GOC does not provide help in restoring personal possessions, and many families will need years to get back to pre-storm lifestyles that were more than modest to begin with. CARITAS is willing to work with us, but has been very cautious in the past, wanting to be sure that they cannot be accused of taking assistance from the USG, while working closely with private US donors like CRS. The head of the Methodist Church in Cuba likewise has indicated his willingness to work with us while mindful of potento repercussions. FRRAR