ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS IN CUBA: NO CHANGE IN THE AIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000063 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2013 TAGS: CU PGOV PHUM PINR SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS IN CUBA: NO CHANGE IN THE AIR REF: A. 2007 USINT HAVANA 1170 ¶B. USINT HAVANA 0028 Classified By: Deputy Chief Of Mission James Williams for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Cubans, probably many Cubans, will head to the polls this Sunday to vote for the membership of the National Assembly and the various provincial assemblies. While the turnout will likely be reported to be nearly 100 percent, and voting will be orderly and peaceful, there is nothing else remarkable that can be said about these elections. The outcome is already known. There are 614 candidates for the 614 seats in the National Assembly, and the candidates for the provincial assemblies are similarly slotted into their seats already. With only a couple of exceptions (we know of an evangelical pastor for one) all the candidates are members of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC). In the vast majority of cases, the candidates will be the same individuals who sat in the last National Assembly, which adjourned on December 28 (ref b). ¶2. (C) In the few cases where members either died, or in some cases stepped out of line, the new candidates come as close as possible to being clones of their predecessors. For example, one musician member of the Assembly made the mistake of suggesting publicly that culture should be brought into the prisons. This novel idea (families of prisoners would have suggested food and medicine first) apparently was unacceptable to the powers that be, and that deputy will not be back. However, he will be replaced by another musician--presumably of greater confidence to the party. Likewise, a famous baseball broadcaster who had long sat in the Assembly died in 2007. He is to be replaced by another sports broadcaster. ¶3. (C) The only suspense that might be generated by the elections involves the National Assembly's upcoming votes to confirm the governing Council of State and the Council of Ministers (the cabinet). Fidel Castro's letter to the Mesa Redonda television program (ref a) led some to speculate that the new Assembly could vote Raul Castro as President of the Council of State and create some honorific position for his ailing brother Fidel. However, Fidel's subsequent letter to the National Assembly (ref b) that showed his continued interest in policy-making and lack of support for change, and his photographed appearance with Brazilian president Lula this week have dampened enthusiasm for that scenario. The smart money now is on the National Assembly to ratify virtually intact the current Council of State and the current Council of Ministers. The votes conforming these two bodies must take place within 40 days of the election, i.e., in early March, but could happen at any time until that date. The longer the wait, the more likely that speculation about possible changes will arise. We see nothing yet to indicate that there will be any notable changes, however. ¶4. (C) Despite this lack of suspense and the general lack of interest among the public, the regime has been pulling out all the stops to ensure high turnout and a successful "voto unido." The "voto unido" or united vote is a concept first proposed by Fidel Castro in 1994. The idea is that, rather than vote for individual candidates and possibly have some with more votes than others (a "voto diverso" that is said to give comfort to Cuba's enemies),voters can mark one slot on the ballot and vote for all candidates with one vote. The system works like full-slate voting in many U.S. jurisdictions, except that in Cuba there is only one party to vote for. Led by personal appeals from Fidel Castro himself in a series of "reflections" columns in the government-controlled press, the government has been hammering home the idea that all Cubans must vote, and they must use the "voto unido. In a bit of a surprise, Fidel's appeal also mentioned the need to reduce spoiled or blank ballots, something which Cuban electoral officials claim almost never happens. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: There is not much suspense here, but we have been interested to note coverage in Cuba of the extremely diverse U.S. primary elections. Those elections are held up in the official media as an example of what not to do. Fidel Castro, in one of his "reflections" pieces, noted that, thanks to the "voto unido," Cubans have a much HAVANA 00000063 002 OF 002 better system--all the decisions are already made for them. The costs of U.S. campaigns are also cited. We are planning to invite a cross section of Cubans to observe televised results of one of the upcoming primary elections to give them a feel for just how awful it really is to have a choice of candidates and platforms. PARMLY