GOC ROUNDS UP DISSIDENTS IN ADVANCE OF USINT 4TH

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000518 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM CU SUBJECT: GOC ROUNDS UP DISSIDENTS IN ADVANCE OF USINT 4TH OF JULY RECEPTION REF: HAVANA 515 (NOTAL) Classified By: COM Michael E Parmly for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As feared following yesterday's attack on USINT activities by MINREX (Reftel),the GOC has begun to threaten, harass, and detain dissidents who planned to attend the 4th of July reception tomorrow. USINT has gotten the names of 7 individuals who have been detained, others are reported to be under virtual house arrest, and still others have been warned not to attend the reception. The only major group that seems not to have been touched yet is the Damas de Blanco. We do not expect the detentions to last much longer than the end time for the reception. ¶2. (SBU) At approximately 0500, the first of several dissidents, Leonardo Bruzon, was picked up by police at his home. Later, at 0600, Liberal Party leader Franciso Chaviano was taken from his home by three men dressed in olive drab uniforms. At the same time, Jorge Luis Perez Garcia (Antunez),his wife Iris, Alejandro Tur, and Carlos Cordero were picked up at Cordero's home in the Vedado section of Havana, and Rene Montes de Oca was picked up at his home. The original information on these detentions was provided by Martha Beatriz Roca (MBR),but her phones and those of almost all of USINT's other dissident contacts have been cut off, so we are unaware of their current whereabouts. Numerous contacts from outside Havana have called to say that police are preventing them from leaving their homes. An attempt to visit dissident education leader Roberto de Miranda in his home was turned away by police stationed there. P/E Counselor spoke with one of the Damas de Blanco staying at the house of leading Dama Laura Pollan and was told that none of the Damas had been detained or harassed at this point. Pollan herself was visiting husband Hector Maseda in prison. ¶3. (C) Meeting with COM and P/E Counselor last night, MBR and Vladimiro Roca previewed today's events, arguing that the MINREX statement threatening USINT (reftel) was actually directed at them. They noted that what the statement really said was that USINT should be held responsible for whatever happened to the dissidents. This, they said, was the same tactic the GOC had employed just before the March 2003 arrest of 75 dissidents (55 of whom remain in prison) known as the "Black Spring." Before contact with him was cut off, Roca reportedly told the press tongue in cheek that the GOC action was its way of thanking the EU for lifting sanctions against Cuba. Roca and MBR were planning to host a meeting of their "Agenda para la Transicion" on July 3, which they had no intention of postponing. They also promised to be at the USINT 4th of July reception on Friday. It will be a pleasant surprise if they show up in the end. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: After the MINREX statement of July 2, this round-up of dissidents is no surprise. The statement contained a clear warning that the GOC was planning to stop an alleged plot by USINT to launch dissidents into the streets to protest as part of the 4th of July reception. The parallels with March 2003 are strong, but we think the reaction will be different this time. For one thing, in March 2003 the commencement of the US invasion of Iraq generated some real fear in the regime of then-President Fidel Castro that Cuba would be next. Even more importantly, however, arresting and sentencing to long prison terms 75 individuals whose only crime was speaking out against the GOC was something more characteristic of Fidel himself. Current President Raul Castro and his government evidently fears the possible activities of the dissidents greatly, but we do not believe that those detained today will be held much beyond the ending time of the 4th of July reception. If they are held longer it may indicate an even higher level of unease about possible popular unrest on the part of the regime. Nevertheless, the sweep is a reminder to an increasingly restive population that the GOC can muzzle opposition members in short order anytime it pleases. PARMLY