ZIM NOTES 10-31-2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000991 AF/S FOR B. WALCH ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN TREASURY FOR D. PETERS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI SUBJECT: ZIM NOTES 10-31-2008 -------------- ¶1. SUMMARY -------------- Topics of the week: - SADC Troika Fails to Break Deadlock... - Parliament adjourns until November 11... - Civil Society Critical of Agreement, Constitutional Reform... - Without Doctors or Nurses, Public Hospitals Stop - Admitting Patients... - Cholera Outbreaks Continue... - Global Fund wraps up in-country audit... - Heartbreak in the Heartland... - Public Universities to Start November 3... - Barely Coping in the Economic Meltdown... - Industry Backs Pro-Market Reform... - Gold Production Crisis... - Zeros Return With a Vengeance... - Government Increases Tax-Free Income Threshold... -------------- ¶2. Price Movements-Exchange Rate and Selected products -------------- Parallel rate for cash nearly doubled to Z$95,000:US$1 Check rate skyrocketed to Z$145,000,000,000:US$1 against inter-bank average of Z$620:US$1 Bread on the parallel market doubled to Z$150,000 Sugar rose to $200,000/2kg Petrol and diesel declined to Z$75,000/liter -------------- On the Political/Social Front -------------- ¶3. SADC Troika Fails to Break Deadlock... Despite 13 hours of meetings with the SADC Troika (Politics, Defense and Security) on Monday October 27, implementation of the September 15 agreement remains elusive. Hundreds of Zimbabweans attempting to demonstrate outside the venue were rebuffed by riot police armed with tear gas and batons. At least two dozen were injured. Police arrested 47 and released them that night after paying a fine. The Troika is calling for an extraordinary SADC summit to address the Zimbabwe crisis; it is expected to take place within the next two weeks. See Harare 966, 968 and 974. ¶4. Parliament adjourns until November 11... In the continued absence of a deal, MPs have gone home until November 11 when they will take up a motion to investigate election related violence. See Harare 980. ¶5. Civil Society Critical of Agreement, Constitutional Reform... Civil society leaders held a public forum on October 30 where they questioned how civil society could play a role in monitoring a power-sharing agreement, since it is still nonexistent. Privately, one leader shared his skepticism of any constitutional reform process. See Harare 970. ¶6. Without Doctors or Nurses, Public Hospitals Stop Admitting Patients... The three major public hospitals in the Harare area - Parirenyatwa, Harare Central, and Chitungwiza - have been reduced to empty shells. Starting around October 23 Parirenyatwa and Harare HARARE 00000991 002 OF 003 Central began discharging nearly all of their patients, as doctors and nurses refused to come to work. Medical professionals are angry not only about their paltry salaries but because they are tired of the lack of supplies that leaves them helpless to do anything but watch patients die. ¶7. Cholera Outbreaks Continue... The UN estimates at least 120 cholera-related deaths have occurred this year, including about 30 since the end of August. The Harare high-density suburb of Budiriro is presently of greatest concern, as 55 cases and 4 deaths were reported there this week. Indicative of poor monitoring and reporting, the Budiriro outbreak began on October 14, but was only reported on the 27th. ¶8. Global Fund wraps up in-country audit... The Global Fund's Inspector General and the Lead of the Audit Team will debrief the GF Executive Director this week and a full report will be available in December. The audit confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's financial procedures handling GF monies were neither transparent nor appropriate. Over US$7 million of Global Fund resources intended to provide life saving medical care to thousands of Zimbabweans was diverted for other purposes by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe since November 2007. Zimbabwe's Round 8 application for US$500 million has been provisionally approved after technical review and will go to the GF Board for review in the near future. See Harare 981. ¶9. Heartbreak in the Heartland... Last week we visited Gweru and Masvingo, in Zimbabwe's once-rich farmlands, as part of our election outreach and to get a sense of life in the heartland. Increasingly, everyone from the vegetable vendor to the landlord demands foreign currency, putting the squeeze on Zimbabweans. See Harare 985. ¶10. Public Universities to Start November 3... The Minister of Education announced universities will open their doors on November 3, although residence halls remain closed and professors do not have salary packages. For a complete overview on the crumbling education system, see Harare 988. -------------- On the Economic and Business Front -------------- ¶11. Barely Coping in the Economic Meltdown... Zimbabweans are tightening their belts, relying on food aid, finding new informal work opportunities within the distortions and contradictions of the economy, emigrating, and sending back remittances. What alarms us particularly in comparing today's coping mechanisms with those of 1-1/2 years ago is the rise in disdain for the law as "corruption out of need" joins "corruption out of greed." See Harare 982. ¶12. Industry Backs Pro-Market Reform... At its annual congress this week, the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) resolved to advise government to implement pro-market policies to revive the ailing manufacturing sector. Noting the negative effects of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's (RBZ) interventions, and in an encouraging sign of possible activism by the country's leading business organization, it called for the Bank to revert to its core business and desist from quasi-fiscal (i.e. off-budget) spending. It also resolved to send a delegation to President Mugabe to advise him of the dire food situation, and to become more engaged in the design of economic policies. ¶13. Gold Production Crisis... According to the CEO of Central African Gold, Greg Hunter, speaking at an investment conference in Johannesburg, Zimbabwe's gold sector is in a crisis primarily because of pricing distortions. He calculated that the RBZ-determined buying price of gold is only US 60 cents per ounce compared to the international market price of around US$850 per HARARE 00000991 003 OF 003 ounce. Moreover, on October 26, the Chamber of Mines announced that the RBZ was US$30 million in arrears to gold producers, which held up investment in capital projects and exploration. ¶14. Zeros Return With a Vengeance... The 10 zeros that were lopped off when the Zimbabwe dollar was redenominated on August 1, 2008, have reappeared with a vengeance thanks to hyperinflation and the continued excess demand for foreign exchange. Using the cash exchange rate, the Zimbabwe dollar lost 99.9999% of its value in the last three months while the Old Mutual Implied Rate, at US$890.1 billion:US$1, breached its pre-revaluation high of Z$676.1 billion:US$1 this week. In response to the return of the zeros, most banks and service providers are removing between 6 and 12 zeros to enable their systems to cope. In view of these developments and the lack of other investment opportunities, activity on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange continues to push record levels nearly every day. ¶15. Government Increases Tax-Free Income Threshold... Against this backdrop, the GOZ raised the tax-free income threshold from Z$15,000 (about US 16 cents at the cash rate) to Z$200,000 (US$2.10) per month with effect from October 1. Those earning above Z$4 million (US$42.10) per month will be taxed at the highest rate of 47.5%. Bracket creep will make the benefits short lived. -------------- Quote of the Week -------------- ¶16. Just look at how young our Secretary for Information is and how old Robert Mugabe is." MDC Secretary General, Tendai Biti in an October 27 press conference, referring to the generational gap between MDC's 30-year-old Nelson Chamisa and the 84-year-old Robert Mugabe. MCGEE