ZIMBABWE: REPORT OF PLANNED COUP ATTEMPT

S E C R E T HARARE 000946 SECRET NOFORN SIPDIS AF/S FOR B.WALCH STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC MOPS ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: REPORT OF PLANNED COUP ATTEMPT Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (S/NF) Fred Mutanda, a close Embassy contact and prominent Harare businessman, told the Ambassador on October 21 that a group of about five high-ranking military officers were planning a coup against Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe while he is in Kampala this week for a regional economic conference. Mutanda said he had met with several of the officers, who are from the Army artillery and infantry and Air Force. Their plan was to wait until Mugabe leaves Harare for Kampala on October 21, and then inform him he was not free to return to Harare. The officers would simultaneously place close Mugabe supporters under house arrest and announce their actions on state television and radio. Violence would be avoided. Mutanda emphasized the officers were not interested in political power; they had discussed handing power to the House of Assembly speaker and asking him to constitute a government. ¶2. (S/NF) Mutanda believed that the officers, who hold the ranks of general, colonel, and Air Force vice marshal, were well-placed and could be expected to maintain control of their service branches in the event of a coup. Opposition could be expected primarily from Emmerson Mnangagwa, Gideon Gono, and Defense Forces chief Constantine Chiwenga. Mutanda said he and two of the coup plotters had spoken yesterday with Chiwenga to gauge his feelings about the current situation in Zimbabwe; they did not reveal their plans to Chiwenga. Chiwenga, who admitted receiving patronage from Gono, at the same time felt Gono and other politicians were not doing enough to turn the country around. Mutanda opined that Chiwenga would not stand in the way of a coup. Likewise, Mutanda discounted the capacities of Mnangagwa and Gono to resist military intervention. ¶3. (S/NF) Secrets are difficult to keep in Harare and we have discreetly reached out to other contacts in an effort to corroborate Mutanda. We have received no confirmation. We note that according to Mutanda the only persons aware of the plot other than he and the military officers involved are officials of the U.S. Embassy and the UK Embassy with whom Mutanda also spoke. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Mutanda is a war veteran and former aide-de-camp of Joshua Nkomo. He has excellent contacts within ZANU-PF and the military and his sharing of information with us in the past has generally been accurate. Therefore, we believe a coup has been discussed among high-ranking military officers. We also believe the plans are plausible; we have received reports for the last couple of years of disaffection among the security forces, and it is not unreasonable to believe that after a coup the military would fall into line. Further, power in Zimbabwe is now maintained by a small clique including Mugabe, Gono, and Mnangagwa. With Mugabe out of the country, it is unlikely the others would be able to hold out against a military coup. ¶5. (S/F) What we are much less certain about is whether plans will be translated into action. Over the last two years, there have been reports of possible military coups. Nothing, obviously, has transpired. Despite widespread discontent within the security forces and ZANU-PF, Mugabe and his inner circle have managed to maintain power. This compels a healthy skepticism that the military officers in question will summon the courage to act now. END COMMENT. MCGEE