WELSHMAN NCUBE DISCUSSES THE MINISTERIAL IMPASSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000878 SIPDIS AF/S FOR G. GARLAND AND B. WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: WELSHMAN NCUBE DISCUSSES THE MINISTERIAL IMPASSE REF: A. HARARE 867 ¶B. HARARE 741 Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) MDC-Mutambara faction (MDC-M) Secretary General Welshman Ncube met with POLOFF on September 25 to discuss a range of issues, including the current status of ministerial negotiations, South Africa's possible role in breaking the deadlock, and local and international criticism of MDC-M leader Arthur Mutambara that stemmed from his anti-West statements and charges that he had aligned himself with ZANU-PF. ¶2. (C) Ncube confirmed that negotiations remain on hold as the negotiators await the return of President Mugabe and the other principals, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Mutambara. The ministerial negotiations became deadlocked late last week over the allocation of the following four powerful ministries: Home Affairs (police), Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Local Government. ZANU-PF wants all four ministries; MDC-T wants to divide them evenly. Two other ministries--Water Resources and Prisons and Correctional Services--have not been allocated, but are not contentious. The allocation of the remaining 25 ministries had been verbally agreed upon and Ncube did not expect there to be much shifting of those ministries. In Ncube's opinion, the personal ambitions of the negotiators had led to the deadlock, rather than any specific party objectives. For instance, Ncube shared that MDC-T negotiator Elton Mangoma wanted to be the Minister of Finance and had pushed hard for its inclusion in MDC-T's portfolio. We had heard separately that Nicholas Goche was interested in Finance, but Ncube could not confirm that report. According to Ncube, Tsvangirai had conceded the Justice ministry to ZANU-PF, and ZANU-PF negotiator Patrick Chinamasa was angling to be named its minister. ¶3. (C) Ncube confirmed discussions we had with well-connected businessman Fred Mutanda earlier this week that ZANU-PF had compressed four ministries into two and converted national security from a ministry into a department within the President's Office (reftel A). However, these moves had been balanced by the halving of several existing ministries. For instance, Industry and Commerce, and Regional Integration and International Trade were now separate ministries. Also, Justice had been separated from Parliamentary and Constitutional Affairs. Ncube could not recall the additional new ministry required to reach a total of 31, but he was certain that the 15, 13, 3 ministry split would be maintained between ZANU-PF, MDC-T, and MDC-M. The MDC-M ministries will be Education, Sport and Culture, Industry and Commerce, and Regional Integration and National Trade. ¶4. (C) Ncube then told us that a proposal had recently originated from former South African President Mbeki's office inviting Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Mutambara to Pretoria to work out the remaining ministerial allocations. Mbeki suggested that Mugabe stop in South Africa on his return from the UN General Assembly session in New York to hold these negotiations. (NOTE: Mbeki and Ncube are also personally connected though the marriage of their children. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) The conversation turned to discussion of the publicity backlash Mutambara had received for his resoundingly negative comments about the West, as well as charges that he had aligned himself with ZANU-PF. Ncube was frank in saying that Mutambara had a "fragile ego" and was not experienced enough to handle harsh criticism. Also, Mutambara's senior team had to repeatedly maintain his HARARE 00000878 002 OF 002 confidence, the lack of which Ncube believed may have originated from Mutambara's childhood as an orphan. (COMMENT: This is not the first time Ncube has criticized his boss; he believes Mutambara should be replaced as MDC-M's leader (Ref B). END COMMENT.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Ncube was candid and frank about the negotiating impasse. MDC-M leaders are relishing the faction's position as a swing-vote player and will continue to look for ways to expand their influence beyond that commensurate with the faction's electoral results. The leadership's ability to exert leverage by aligning with (or threatening to align with) ZANU-PF on specific issues will depend in part on whether the faction's elected officials are willing to stomach this strategy. If leadership goes to far, the faction may disintegrate. The text of the power-sharing agreement represents a notable success for Ncube and Mutambara; the election of the MDC-T's candidate for Speaker was a notable failure. END COMMENT. MCGEE