MDC AND ZANU-PF PERCEPTIONS OF THE DEAL DIFFER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000854 SIPDIS AF/S FOR G. GARLAND DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: MDC AND ZANU-PF PERCEPTIONS OF THE DEAL DIFFER SHARPLY REF: A. A: HARARE 833 ¶B. B: HARARE 843 Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Public reactions to the power-sharing agreement between ZANU-PF and the MDC on September 15 were generally optimistic in urban pro-MDC areas such as Harare and Mutare. In these regions, Zimbabweans were cautiously hopeful that the deal would lead to tangible quality-of-life benefits. In contrast, the Zimbabwean trade union called for new elections, while the influential South African trade union criticized the deal's structure. Most striking have been the negative reactions from within ZANU-PF: civil society leaders, well-connected businessmen, and party and security insiders have all indicated that the agreement was causing disruption and dissent within ZANU-PF. -------------- MDC Supporters Cautiously Optimistic -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Discussions with vendors and shoppers in pro-MDC Harare indicated that many Zimbabweans welcomed the deal and were cautiously optimistic that it would succeed. Their comments signaled that they wanted to believe the agreement would pave the way to tangible improvements in their day-to-day lives, but that optimism was tempered by a government that has done little but disappoint them for the past decade. ¶3. (SBU) In the days following the signing, we witnessed opposition party supporters celebrating and openly wearing MDC tee shirts in both Harare and Mutare; these actions would have invited violent reprisals prior to the agreement. While the deal has not resulted in much conflict within the capital, there have been a few incidents. Immediately following the signing ceremony on September 15, MDC and ZANU-PF mobs were throwing rocks at each other outside the venue while the police looked on. ¶4. (SBU) A number of people with whom we spoke feared that Mugabe remained in control and expressed doubts about his commitment to make the deal work. A skeptical security guard was very concerned that Mugabe's speech (Ref A) had only served to dissuade the West from providing necessary assistance and indicated Mugabe was still living in the past. ¶5. (C) Outside of the major cities and towns, information about the agreement was virtually non-existent. On a regional tour of eastern and southern Zimbabwe this week, poloff found that the only news of the deal came from ZANU-PF spokespeople who gathered audiences and proclaimed victory. We have also received unsettling reports that some militias and war veterans in rural areas are ignoring the agreement. In Mudzi--a district in Mashonaland East--an MDC official told us that he could not travel to Harare because local militias were threatening people claiming "they do not recognize the deal." -------------- Trade Unions Calling for Fresh Elections -------------- ¶6. (U) The Zimbabwean Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) released a press statement on September 16 calling for a new HARARE 00000854 002 OF 003 round of free and fair elections. The ZCTU made it clear that they believe that "a government of national unity is a subversion of our national constitution." The ZCTU also appears to be frustrated that Tsvangirai (ZCTU's Secretary General up until 1999) did not involve them in the negotiation of the agreement. ¶7. (U) The Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) criticized the structure of the deal. Specifically, COSATU noted that Mugabe's powers remained unchecked, Tsvangirai was only in charge of a "cluster of ministries," the deal represented a new government instead of a transitional one, and that "all Mugabe's draconian laws remain in place." COSATU has been a strong advocate for Zimbabwean civil rights, and in April led a successful effort to block the offloading of a shipload of Chinese arms intended for Zimbabwe's military. -------------- ZANU-PF Supporters Strongly Opposed -------------- ¶8. (C) A power struggle is taking place within ZANU-PF as senior members are scrambling to ensure themselves of positions in the new government. Several external and internal observers confirmed reports we received from a well-placed ZANU-PF source (Ref B) that intra-party divisions are forming. Eldred Masunungure, a political analyst at the University of Zimbabwe, told POLOFF that ZANU-PF members are concerned that if the deal works it will destroy their party because the MDC will get all the credit, and the next election could sweep them out of power. Masunungure also shared that ZANU-PF members who are known to support the agreement are being accused of undermining the party. ¶9. (C) Manatsa Mutasa, a member of ZANU-PF's 245 person Central Committee, told us this week that the local ZANU-PF committee in Mutare was disgusted with the deal, and he has been threatened by colleagues because he is known to be supportive of the agreement. ¶10. (C) Happymore Mapara, CEO of Cotton Company of Zimbabwe, shared the view that the deal could lead to the "disintegration" of ZANU-PF through internal dissent. In particular, he told econoff that ZANU-PF MPs are angry that Mugabe did not relinquish power in an orderly manner prior to the elections in March. Mapara also mentioned that there were negotiations about ZANU-PF possibly turning over 5 of the 10 provincial governorships to the MDC, but internal opposition remained strong. It was Mapara's belief that, "there's a hurricane coming." ¶11. (C) Another indication of dissent within ZANU-PF is the apparent displeasure of senior police and military officials. We are uncertain how much stock to put in this, but we have received several reports that coup rumors are surfacing. There are reports that Police Commissioner Chihuri and other members of the Joint Operations Command (military, police, and intelligence chiefs) are upset with the deal. (Army commander Chiwenga famously made his feelings known prior to elections when he said, "elections are coming and the army will not support or salute sell-outs and agents of the West.") -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) In this deal one thing is clear; ZANU-PF will take some losses. The party's willingness to digest those losses will be an indicator of the current depth of Mugabe's base of HARARE 00000854 003 OF 003 support and the cohesion of ZANU-PF going forward. Delays in allocating cabinet posts (septel) reflect ZANU-PF efforts to minimize losses. END COMMENT MCGEE