POWER SHARING REPORTEDLY SHAKES UP ZANU-PF

S E C R E T HARARE 000843 SIPDIS AF/S FOR G. GARLAND DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: POWER SHARING REPORTEDLY SHAKES UP ZANU-PF Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (S) Summary: A well-connected businessman told Ambassador September 17 that there is significant dissension within ZANU-PF following the signing of a power sharing agreement with the MDC. Those dissatisfied are reported to include members of the CIO, service chiefs and the Mujuru faction. We will seek confirmation and look for opportunities to further weaken the coherence of ZANU-PF. End summary. ¶2. (S) Well-connected local businessman Fred Mutanda briefed Ambassador September 17 on turmoil in ZANU-PF following the signing of the power sharing agreement on September 15. Mutanda said splits in ZANU are growing in several different respects. He learned that discussion at the September 16 Politburo was dominated by recriminations over the poor organization of the signing ceremony. Because access to the hall was not properly controlled, large numbers of MDC supporters who arrived early were allowed in and seated in the balconies. They cheered Tsvangirai, booed Mugabe when he accused opposition parties of violence, and clearly outnumbered the ZANU-PF partisans in the hall. The Politburo concluded with the creation of a committee to investigate how this was allowed to occur. Mutanda said senior CIO officials told him they were being accused of demonstrating sympathy for the MDC by failing to ensure security at the ceremony. These officials feel the CIO is under threat from within ZANU. ¶3. (S) Secondly, Mutanda suggested that service chiefs are dissatisfied with the agreement. He claimed army chief Chiwenga told him that he felt betrayed; after having been told he would never have to salute Tsvangirai, Mugabe cut a deal, without consulting the service chiefs, that placed Tsvangirai in a position of authority. Mutanda said that Mnangagwa had been promised that he would be one of the Deputy Prime Ministers, and was likely similarly upset by Mugabe's failure to follow through on this commitment. ¶4. (S) Perhaps most significantly, Mutanda told Ambassador that the Mujuru faction directly confronted Mugabe during a September 17 meeting of the ZANU-PF central committee. Mutanda reported that the faction members told Mugabe they felt sold out by the deal. They insisted that, having taken care of himself in the negotiations, Mugabe must now deal with the succession issue. According to Mutanda, they threatened to break away and either align themselves with the MDC or work independently. ¶5. (S) Mutanda believes that Mugabe is in a bind and in order to keep his options open, he may leave for the UN General Assembly as early as September 19, without naming a cabinet or appointing Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. ¶6. (S) Comment: Although we do not agree with all of Mutanda's analysis and cannot vouch for his sources, it is logical that the imminence of power-sharing has shaken up the delicate balance of ZANU-PF. We will seek confirmation of Mutanda's reports as well as ways to exploit cracks and expand emerging fissures. Our success will be directly correlated with our ability to keep the USG's hand hidden. MCGEE