SADC TALKS DEAD; MDC TO CONSIDER PARTICIPATION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000081

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL,
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: SADC TALKS DEAD; MDC TO CONSIDER PARTICIPATION IN
ELECTION

REF: A) HARARE 70 B) HARARE 46 C) PRETORIA 152

Classified By: Amb. James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) (Mutambara
faction) secretary general Welshman Ncube believes Zimbabwean
president Robert Mugabe has effectively killed the SADC
talks, and that SADC is afraid to challenge Mugabe's
peremptory dismissal of South African president Thabo Mbeki
and his mediation efforts. Leaders of both factions favor an
election boycott in an effort to create a "tipping point" in
the Zimbabwean situation, but a reconciled MDC is likely to
decide to participate in the March 29 elections. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Ncube told polecon chief on January 29 that ZANU-PF
had engaged in "provocative" behavior over the last 10 days
by declaring an early nomination date (February 8) and
election date (March 29) that do not give the MDC time to
evaluate the recently completed delimitation exercise,
inspect voter rolls, and select candidates. By acting
peremptorily, according to Ncube, Mugabe had effectively
ended the SADC mediation process. The SADC process was dead
and the only question was how Mbeki would bury it.


3. (C) Ncube noted that Mbeki had sent his chief mediator,
Sydney Mufamadi, last week to attempt to revive the talks by
arranging a meeting between Mugabe and MDC presidents Morgan
Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara and continued to press Mugabe

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on the issue. Mugabe was refusing to meet with them--he
insisted he could not meet with Tsvangirai who was disputing
his legitimacy through a still-pending challenge to the 2003
presidential election results--and now even refused to take
Mbeki's phone calls. The MDC had appealed to SADC, but SADC,
in Ncube's opinion, was weak and would not challenge a
sitting leader.


4. (C) According to Ncube, the MDC was unprepared for the
elections and was certain to lose. He and the leadership of
his faction, including president Arthur Mutambara, favored a
boycott. The MDC had engaged in an incremental strategy,
including participating in elections, for the last eight
years and had gone nowhere. Acknowledging that the MDC had
no alternative strategy in the event of a boycott, Ncube said
a boycott might produce a "tipping point" and an unknown
succession of events that might be preferable to the status
quo. But Ncube believed his faction's national council
favored participation.


5. (C) Ncube stated that Tsvangirai and his secretary
general, Tendai Biti, also favored a boycott, but
Tsvangirai's "kitchen cabinet" and a majority of his national

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council favored participation. Reasons articulated for
participation in both factions included lack of an
alternative program in the event of a boycott; fear that the
MDC would cease to exist (as had occurred with boycotting
parties in other African countries); the opportunity for
ZANU-PF to establish footholds in areas that would no longer
have MDC parliamentarians, causing diminution of MDC strength
in these areas; and the fact that the absence of a challenge
to ZANU-PF would allow that party to conserve resources.
Ncube did not feel the decision was being driven by
parliamentarians who favored participation in order to keep
their seats; a number of parliamentarians favored a boycott.


6. (C) Ncube said the national councils of both MDC factions
would meet later this week to vote on the agreement reached

HARARE 00000081 002 OF 002


by standing committees of each faction to act as a coalition,
and to reunify no earlier than April 2009. He expected the
national councils would then meet jointly to decide on
whether or not to participate in the March elections. He
believed the decision would be to participate.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) As we have pointed out (Ref B),the MDC is in a
no-win situation. If it participates and loses, it will in
some measure confer legitimacy upon Mugabe--particularly if,
as possibly is the case (Septel),the GOZ allows
international observation of the elections. If the MDC
boycotts, it risks its continuing viability as a party. In
any event, attention is beginning to shift to post-election
ZANU-PF and succession. END COMMENT.

MCGEE