OUTLINES OF A DEAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000793 SIPDIS AF/S FOR G. GARLAND DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: OUTLINES OF A DEAL Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) An upbeat Morgan Tsvangirai told the Ambassador early this morning that he thought a breakthrough in ZANU-PF--MDC negotiations had been achieved last night. On the contentious issue of allocation of executive authority, Tsvangirai said he had presented a proposal to Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe to create an advisory "Leadership Council of State" (Council) to be chaired by Mugabe. Tsvangirai, as prime minister, would be head of government and chair cabinet. He would report to Mugabe as president. Mugabe was amenable to the proposal and said he would confer overnight with his advisors. END SUMMARY. -------------- Council of State -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Tsvangirai, the Council would be headed by Mugabe and would also include his two vice presidents, Tsvangirai, as prime minister, and Tsvangirai's two deputy prime ministers. It would be an advisory body with oversight over the cabinet. The prime minister would be required to submit decisions to the Council which could direct him to have the cabinet reconsider the decision. The Council, however, would not have veto power. ¶3. (C) Tsvangirai said he would be head of government under this structure with responsibility for directing cabinet. He said he discussed the arrangement with Mugabe in a one-on-one session. He sold it to Mugabe by arguing that Mugabe would not want to be responsible for day-to-day operations of government. Also, Tsvangirai would report to Mugabe as president. Mugabe was receptive and said he would consult with his advisors overnight. Tsvangirai subsequently briefed South African president and mediator Thabo Mbeki who he said was supportive. Tsvangirai asked Mbeki to help sell the deal to Mugabe as the best way to begin to turn Zimbabwe around. -------------- Division of Ministries and Parliament -------------- ¶4. (C) Tsvangirai stated that division between the parties of the 31 ministries was still under discussion, but some tentative agreements had been reached. ZANU-PF would control defense, security (CIO),primary education, and land redistribution. MDC would have responsibility for home affairs (police),finance (which would name the Reserve Bank governor),foreign affairs, local government, and media and communications. ¶5. (C) Tsvangirai averred that with MDC control of Parliament, the MDC would be able to drive the legislative agenda. Priorities would be repeal of the presidential powers act (under which the president when Parliament is not sitting can issue decrees on any subject with the exception of the budget and amendment of the constitution),repeal of AIPPA, and repeal of POSA. -------------- Transitional Period -------------- ¶6. (C) A transitional constitution would be implemented, according to Tsvangirai and would have a life of 18 months. During this period, a new constitution would be negotiated HARARE 00000793 002 OF 002 and submitted to a referendum. At the end of the 18 month period, the parties could agree to continue the interim period. Alternatively, either party could opt out and elections would be scheduled. -------------- Other Issues -------------- ¶7. (C) Tsvangirai said other issues such as amnesty and the removal of sanctions had not yet been discussed, but he expected these could be easily resolved. ¶8. (C) With respect to the international community, Tsvangirai said he expected that once an agreement was reached, everyone would help. He acknowledged that it would be appropriate for the international community to wait to see concrete actions to implement an agreement before stepping forward. ¶9. (C) Tsvangirai urged the USG to stay in the background while negotiations continue and until there has been a resolution. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Until now, ZANU-PF had insisted on maintaining the balance of power and had maintained an agreement should be based on power sharing and not power transfer. Tsvangirai's proposal would strip Mugabe of most of his power. Despite Mugabe's purported receptiveness to Tsvangirai's proposal, there is a healthy basis for skepticism that Mugabe and ZANU-PF will ultimately accept the proposal since it transfers the bulk of executive power to Tsvangirai. Nevertheless, there seems to be momentum toward an agreement and we would not be surprised to see ONE signed--perhaps different in form than that suggested by Tsvangirai--today or in the near future. MCGEE