NEGOTIATIONS STILL ON TRACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000651 SIPDIS AF/S FOR G. GARLAND ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC ZI SUBJECT: NEGOTIATIONS STILL ON TRACK Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) MDC negotiator Elton Mangoma told us August 1 that negotiations will resume in Pretoria on August 3. Mangoma was optimistic that sticking points--balance of power between Mugabe and Tsvangirai, and duration of the new government--would be worked out and that a signing ceremony would take place as early as next week. According to Mangoma, ZANU-PF wants a five-year transitional government while the MDC is insisting on two years. We understand from several sources, including Mangoma, that the most likely outcome is a power-sharing arrangement with Mugabe retaining some executive powers as president and Tsvangirai becoming an executive prime minister. ¶2. (C) COMMENT: Both sides are anxious for an agreement and we expect, as indicated by Mangoma, a compromise resulting in both Mugabe and Tsvangirai having executive power in a transitional government with a division of ministries between the two parties. Regardless of the precise allocation of power between the two, if the security chiefs are left in place, effective control of government will remain with ZANU-PF. ¶3. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: If an agreement is reached, we expect Tsvangirai to state that compromises were made to achieve the best agreement possible under the circumstances, and that democratic reforms will be undertaken leading to elections after the transition period. Under this scenario, he will probably ask that SANCTIONS be lifted and that international developmental assistance resume. END COMMENT. MCGEE