PUBLIC BLAMES ZANU-PF AND SANCTIONS FOR DIRE STATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000324 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND T.RAND COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PGOV ASEC ZI SUBJECT: PUBLIC BLAMES ZANU-PF AND SANCTIONS FOR DIRE STATE OF ECONOMY IN OPINION POLL -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) The presentation on April 8, 2007 of the results of round two of the Mass Public Opinion Institute's (MPOI) national survey on "The Zimbabwe Economy and People's Survival Strategies," carried out in December 2007, revealed greater pessimism over the state of the economy and personal levels of economic well being than a year ago. There was a marked increase in the number of respondents blaming ZANU-PF for the economic conditions; the ruling party earned foremost blame among rural respondents, whereas more urban respondents blamed "sanctions" firstly. Remittances as a coping mechanism played a significant role in helping people pay for food and healthcare, especially among respondents over aged 50. The survey found a dearth of support for the GOZ's price crackdown of the past 10 months, but a slight majority of respondents favored further indigenization of the economy. END SUMMARY. -------------- The MPOI, Survey Methodology and Scope -------------- ¶2. (U) The MPOI is a non-profit, nongovernmental organization established and registered in Zimbabwe in 1999. Round one of its well regarded survey on "The Zimbabwe Economy and People's Survival Methods" was carried out in October 2006, followed by round two in December 2007. Econoff attended presentation of the preliminary results of round two on April 8, 2007. In the survey, MPOI staff interviewed a randomly chosen sample of 1,200 people over the age of 18, balanced by gender, and from all 10 provinces of Zimbabwe. Of the respondents, 68 percent were from rural settings and 32 percent from urban areas (22 percent of respondents were from Harare or Bulawayo). The survey investigated attitudes toward the country's economic condition and the respondents' own economic situation. It also probed individual survival strategies and attitudes toward the price control crackdown of the past year and the government's proposed indigenization policy. The results were graphed against findings from the 2006 survey to illustrate trends. -------------- Pessimism Over the State of the Economy -------------- ¶3. (U) In both 2006 and 2007, 89 percent of the respondents described Zimbabwe's economic condition as either very bad or bad, but the "very bad" rating increased from 51 percent to 58 percent of those surveyed in the 2007 survey. Slightly more women than men rated the condition as very bad, which MPOI staff suggested was a reflection of more men than women having entered and benefited from the informal economy. Similarly, 86 percent of the respondents said that their own economic situation was either very bad or bad in 2007 against 85 percent in 2006, but again from year to year the "very bad" rating jumped from 41 percent to 52 percent. Broken down by place of residence, the responses of urban and rural dwellers hardly differed. Asked how economic conditions compared to a year ago, 85 percent responded "much worse," compared to 78 percent in 2006. Perhaps expressing some pre-election optimism, 54 percent expected to see the economy HARARE 00000324 002 OF 003 worse or much worse one year from now, compared to 71 percent of the respondents in 2006, and 35 percent thought the government was capable of solving the most serious problems in the next twelve months compared to only 28 percent in ¶2006. ¶4. (U) Illustrative of the dire effect of the price control blitz begun in June 2007, 47 percent of respondents in December 2007 listed shortages of basic commodities as the most serious problem facing the country, whereas unemployment ranked first in 2006 when only 8 percent of respondents ranked commodity shortages high. -------------- -------------- ZANU-PF Held Responsible, Especially by Rural Dwellers -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) Asked what factor was most responsible for the state of the economy, 25 percent put the blame on ZANU-PF/GOZ, 22 percent on "sanctions," and 21 percent on corruption. In 2006, 32 percent held ZANU-PF/GOZ responsible, 19 percent didn't know, and 18 percent blamed corruption, while "sanctions" came in only in fifth place at 12 percent. In rural areas, 26 percent of respondents held the ZANU-PF/GOZ foremost responsible for the state of the economy compared to 23 percent of urban respondents. For their part, 26 percent of urban respondents blamed "sanctions" foremost, compared to 19 percent of rural respondents. Unsurprisingly, only 13 percent of ZANU-PF sympathizers held the ruling party chiefly responsible, whereas 48 percent and 43 percent of MDC-Tsvangirai and MDC-Mutambara sympathizers respectively blamed ZANU-PF/GOZ. On government performance in creating jobs and in keeping prices stable, over 80 percent of respondents called it "bad." -------------- Survival Strategies -------------- ¶6. (U) Asked how they sourced food, farming was the prime source for 27 percent of respondents, followed by salaries for 22 percent, "projects" (informal economic activity) for 18 percent, and remittances for 15 percent. Remittances were the prime source of health care funding for 29 percent of respondents over the age of 50 and the main source of cash for 36 percent of people over 50. -------------- Reaction to Price Blitz -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Overall, 79 percent of respondents said they were adversely affected by the ongoing price blitz, but the share fell to 65 percent among ruling party sympathizers. Surprisingly, only 63 percent of respondents said they were angry or very angry about the government's price policy, with the proportion varying from 52 percent of ZANU-PF supporters to 79 percent of MDC-Tsvangirai supporters and 84 percent of MDC-Mutambara supporters. The MPOI presenters assumed, and attendees at the presentation concurred, that more ruling party supporters had benefited from the crackdown in its earliest days through tip offs about raids on shops. -------------- HARARE 00000324 003 OF 003 Positive Views on Further Indigenization -------------- ¶8. (U) Told that the government has proposed extending its land reform policy to other sectors, such as mining and manufacturing, and that it would require that 51 percent of shareholders in companies in these sectors be black Zimbabweans, 52 percent of respondents called it a good policy and 39 percent were averse. Broken down by province, 70 percent of respondents in both Mashonaland East and West supported the policy. By age group, indigenization enjoyed the most support (56 percent) among 31-50 year olds. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The high number of rural dwellers who blamed ZANU-PF first and foremost for the dire state of the economy in December presaged the ruling party's recent stunning loss of support among the rural electorate. It is also noteworthy how effective the GOZ has been in the past year, at least in urban areas where media are available, in convincing people that "sanctions" are at the root of Zimbabwe's economic problems. Disconcerting in the survey results is the high number of respondents who appeared to favor extending fast-track land reform to the industrial and commercial sectors. MCGEE