DISILLUSIONED CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER FORESEES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000317 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN AND BENJAMIN LEO STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND T.RAND COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV ASEC ZI SUBJECT: DISILLUSIONED CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER FORESEES INCREASED VIOLENCE REF: A. HARARE 0314 ¶B. HARARE 0294 ¶C. HARARE 0231 Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Disillusioned Central Committee member Manatsa Mutasa told us that the Politburo recognized MDC Tsvangirai had won 48 percent of the presidential vote against Mugabe's 43 percent. Consequently, the ruling party had begun a campaign of violence, spearheaded by Minister Oppah Muchinguri, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Kumbirai Kangai, Air Marshall Perence Shiri, and Minister Didymus Mutasa, to intimidate the population and MDC leaders. Mutasa anticipated that ZANU-PF would fire bomb its own offices and blame the MDC, thus opening space for Mugabe to declare a state of emergency and cancel the runoff. He also separately related an election incident of a customs official tipping off the police about stuffed ballot boxes coming across the border and their subsequent seizure by the police. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- Politburo Concedes More Votes for MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Mutasa (Ref C) told us today that Politburo representatives on April 4 had informed the Manicaland members of the ZANU-PF national Central Committee, including himself, that MDC-Tsvangirai had won 48 percent of the presidential vote and Robert Mugabe 43 percent. Mutasa was convinced there would be no election runoff as, even with rigging and intimidation, the ruling party could not guarantee Mugabe's victory. From the Politburo level down, Mutasa said ZANU-PF was now preparing for war. ¶3. (C) Bases and command centers were being set up in the bush as "centers of torture and even killing." They were designed to intimidate people and "drive MDC kingpins to run away." The bases were manned by off-duty Shona soldiers rather than active duty soldiers because the Ndebele, who are deputy commanders in the Zimbabwe military command structure, would otherwise refuse to participate, Mutasa explained. He also said the Politburo had given the green light last week to begin invading all the remaining white-owned farms (Ref B). Violence was spreading. His own shop and office in Watsomba in Mutasa Central had been ransacked and looted the previous evening and he also reported violence against resettled farmers, MDC supporters, and ZANU-PF members who were deemed disloyal to the party around Old Mutare this week (Ref C). Several of them had been dragged from their homes in the night and beaten. Lists of targeted persons were being drawn up at a provincial ZANU-PF meeting yesterday before Mutasa was expelled from the meeting, although he said in the provincial ZANU-PF structure he outranked all others present. Mutasa assumed he would be a target of violence and was weighing whether or not to return home. He added that war veterans had met last week across the country and been told by their leaders to &get geared.8 ¶4. (C) Leading the violence, according to Mutasa, were defeated Member of Parliament and Gender and Women's Affairs HARARE 00000317 002 OF 002 Minister Oppah Muchinguri, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Kumbirai Kangai, Air Commander Perence Shiri, and State Security Minister Didymus Mutasa, none of whom was willing to let power slip from ZANU-PF as each had blood on his or her hands: Muchinguri was complicit in the "car accident" in which Defense Minister Moven Mahachi was killed in 2001; Kangai was complicit in the assassination of liberation hero Herbert Chitepo in 1975; Shiri led the Matabeleland massacres in the mid-1980s; and Didymus Mutasa needed to redeem himself for having failed to prevent ZANU-PF's election defeat last month. Manatsa Mutasa anticipated that the ruling party would orchestrate fire bombings of ZANU-PF offices and blame the MDC, thus opening up room for Mugabe to declare a state of emergency and cancel a runoff. ¶5. (C) Asked why ZANU-PF had not protected Oppah Muchinguri from her humiliating defeat in Mutasa Central, Mutasa related that rigging had most likely been planned, but a customs official had tipped off the police that nine stuffed ballot boxes had crossed the nearby Mozambique border and police then intercepted them on the road to Mutasa Central. Mutasa assumed they were destined for that district to pump up Muchinguri's numbers. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Whether or not the picture, which contrasts with the relative calm of Harare, is as dire as Mutasa relates, his fear is real. Mutasa's version of violence and intimidation does comport with other referenced reports that we have received. END COMMENT. MCGEE