DISILLUSIONED CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER FORESEES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000317

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN AND BENJAMIN LEO
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN
TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND T.RAND
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: DISILLUSIONED CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER FORESEES
INCREASED VIOLENCE

REF: A. HARARE 0314

B. HARARE 0294

C. HARARE 0231

Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Disillusioned Central Committee member Manatsa Mutasa
told us that the Politburo recognized MDC Tsvangirai had won
48 percent of the presidential vote against Mugabe's 43
percent. Consequently, the ruling party had begun a campaign
of violence, spearheaded by Minister Oppah Muchinguri, Deputy
Speaker of Parliament Kumbirai Kangai, Air Marshall Perence
Shiri, and Minister Didymus Mutasa, to intimidate the
population and MDC leaders. Mutasa anticipated that ZANU-PF
would fire bomb its own offices and blame the MDC, thus
opening space for Mugabe to declare a state of emergency and
cancel the runoff. He also separately related an election
incident of a customs official tipping off the police about
stuffed ballot boxes coming across the border and their
subsequent seizure by the police. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
Politburo Concedes More Votes for MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Mutasa (Ref C) told us today that Politburo
representatives on April 4 had informed the Manicaland
members of the ZANU-PF national Central Committee, including
himself, that MDC-Tsvangirai had won 48 percent of the
presidential vote and Robert Mugabe 43 percent. Mutasa was
convinced there would be no election runoff as, even with
rigging and intimidation, the ruling party could not
guarantee Mugabe's victory. From the Politburo level down,
Mutasa said ZANU-PF was now preparing for war.


3. (C) Bases and command centers were being set up in the
bush as "centers of torture and even killing." They were
designed to intimidate people and "drive MDC kingpins to run
away." The bases were manned by off-duty Shona soldiers
rather than active duty soldiers because the Ndebele, who are
deputy commanders in the Zimbabwe military command structure,
would otherwise refuse to participate, Mutasa explained. He
also said the Politburo had given the green light last week
to begin invading all the remaining white-owned farms (Ref
B). Violence was spreading. His own shop and office in
Watsomba in Mutasa Central had been ransacked and looted the
previous evening and he also reported violence against
resettled farmers, MDC supporters, and ZANU-PF members who
were deemed disloyal to the party around Old Mutare this week
(Ref C). Several of them had been dragged from their homes
in the night and beaten. Lists of targeted persons were
being drawn up at a provincial ZANU-PF meeting yesterday
before Mutasa was expelled from the meeting, although he said
in the provincial ZANU-PF structure he outranked all others
present. Mutasa assumed he would be a target of violence and
was weighing whether or not to return home. He added that
war veterans had met last week across the country and been
told by their leaders to &get geared.8


4. (C) Leading the violence, according to Mutasa, were
defeated Member of Parliament and Gender and Women's Affairs

HARARE 00000317 002 OF 002


Minister Oppah Muchinguri, Deputy Speaker of Parliament
Kumbirai Kangai, Air Commander Perence Shiri, and State
Security Minister Didymus Mutasa, none of whom was willing to
let power slip from ZANU-PF as each had blood on his or her
hands: Muchinguri was complicit in the "car accident" in
which Defense Minister Moven Mahachi was killed in 2001;
Kangai was complicit in the assassination of liberation hero
Herbert Chitepo in 1975; Shiri led the Matabeleland massacres
in the mid-1980s; and Didymus Mutasa needed to redeem himself
for having failed to prevent ZANU-PF's election defeat last
month. Manatsa Mutasa anticipated that the ruling party
would orchestrate fire bombings of ZANU-PF offices and blame
the MDC, thus opening up room for Mugabe to declare a state
of emergency and cancel a runoff.


5. (C) Asked why ZANU-PF had not protected Oppah Muchinguri
from her humiliating defeat in Mutasa Central, Mutasa related
that rigging had most likely been planned, but a customs
official had tipped off the police that nine stuffed ballot
boxes had crossed the nearby Mozambique border and police
then intercepted them on the road to Mutasa Central. Mutasa
assumed they were destined for that district to pump up
Muchinguri's numbers.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) Whether or not the picture, which contrasts with the
relative calm of Harare, is as dire as Mutasa relates, his
fear is real. Mutasa's version of violence and intimidation
does comport with other referenced reports that we have
received. END COMMENT.

MCGEE