"RELAUNCHING REVOLUTION": ZANU RHETORIC INTSENSIFIES

UNCLAS HARARE 000296 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS SES-O AF/S FOR S. HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC ZI SUBJECT: "RELAUNCHING REVOLUTION": ZANU RHETORIC INTSENSIFIES REF: HARARE 274 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With results for Zimbabwe's March 29 presidential election still unknown, the government mouthpiece The Herald continued its runoff campaign rhetoric in its April 8 edition. In articles on the arrest of electoral commission officials for prejudicing ruling party results, land reform reversal by white farmers and opposition links to Western conspiracies, the government appears to be laying out its strategy for undermining the MDC and justifying a crackdown on the democratic political process. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On April 8, the government newspaper, The Herald, reported on page one that five Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) officials who presided at polling stations in Masvingo, Manicaland and Mashonaland Central provinces were arrested on April 7 "on allegations of tampering with electoral results and prejudicing ZANU-PF candidate President Mugabe of 4,993 votes cast in four constituencies." Police did not provide details as to which constituencies were affected by the adjustment of vote tallies (allegedly completed after results were posted outside polling stations but before forwarding to the National Command Center),but, according to the paper, an investigation was ongoing. The arrests come on the heels of an announcement by ZANU-PF that it would contest results in 16 House of Assembly constituencies, alleging that ZEC officials were bribed to alter results in favor of the MDC. ¶3. (SBU) While the newspaper did report that police ordered war veterans who had seized white-owned farms in rural areas to withdraw, it also reminded readers of "widespread reports of hordes of white ex-farmers trooping back into Zimbabwe of late threatening to repossess farms they lost during the land reform program in the event that the MDC ascends to power." Several op-ed pieces went on to allege that MDC presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai's main platform was to restore land to whites at the behest of Western donors, confirming "what ZANU-PF has been saying all along, that the MDC was formed as a consequence of misplaced economics on the part of the British, who believed it was cheaper to fund an opposition to unseat the Government than to meet the costs of land purchase in Zimbabwe." The Herald's editorial decried this as a "rude awakening for the thousands of Zimbabweans who endorsed the MDC at the polls as that amounted to voting away their rights to land, and everything on and under it." ¶4. (SBU) Additional reporting included a characterization by The Herald of South African President Thabo Mbeki's appeal for the international community to wait patiently for results as refusal to "criticize Zimbabwe's conduct of the elections" and a rejection of "a call by the MDC for international intervention in the Harare polls." An op-ed entitled "Run-off: Relaunching Revolution" intoned that "even at it's worst showing, ZANU-PF remained invincible...this runoff will be a massacre for the MDC and Tsvangirai...The U.S., the UK and everyone else can do absolutely nothing about Tsvangirai's impending defeat. It's homeland or death. The revolution will triumph." ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The government appears to be continuing to lay out its strategy for undermining an MDC win and justifying a crackdown on the democratic political process. By framing the opposition as a puppet of the U.K. and the United States, reinvigorating racial disharmony and aggravating tensions around land issues, ZANU-PF may be intending to play Zimbabwean's reverence for the liberation struggle as a main component of its campaign. At the end of the day, if there is a runoff, the results may depend on whether ZANU-PF rigging, including intimidation and violence, can trump the desire of the vast majority of Zimbabweans for change. END COMMENT. MCGEE