SITUATION REPORT: PENDULUM SWINGS FROM RUNOFF TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000275 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2018 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI SUBJECT: SITUATION REPORT: PENDULUM SWINGS FROM RUNOFF TO DEAL, AMCITS DETAINED Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Harare has remained quiet throughout the day April 3, but the rumor mill has continued to churn. Late in the morning Post contacts reported that ZANU-PF was preparing to pull out all the stops to assure itself victory in a runoff. Shortly after, usually well-informed contacts told us that they were confident Mugabe had decided to strike a deal to exit gracefully. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) was expected to announce Senatorial results today, which would have been the last step before a presidential announcement, but has been silent. It appears plausible that Mugabe is contemplating a deal while some of his allies take the initial steps that would be required to succeed in a runoff. Meanwhile, ZEC stalls. ¶2. (C) The existence of independent vote counts has limited ZANU-PF's options and elimination of these would be part of any optimal runoff strategy. The National Democratic Institute (NDI) assisted the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN) with ZESN's Parallel Vote Tabulation. Around midday, two officials in plain clothes appeared at the York Lodge where NDI staff were staying. They took down the visitors' passport numbers and rental car plate numbers. One of the NDI staff members changed hotels; the other moved his departure up from tomorrow (April 4) to this evening. The latter, an American citizen, was detained at the airport and sent colleagues a text message indicating he was being taken to Harare Central police station. Also this evening, the Embassy learned that police were searching rooms and questioning guests at York Lodge. Reports now indicate that three journalists, a UK citizen, an American reporting for the New York Times, and a third unidentified person described as an American were picked up at the York. We believe they lacked accreditation as journalists, and may have been picked up for this reason, although the operation may have initially sought the NDI employees. Prominent local attorney Beatrice Mtetwa and Conoff are both on their way to Harare Central to inquire about the NDI employee; Conoff will also seek information on the reportedly detained journalists. Experience suggests there is a fair chance all will be questioned overnight and then deported. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: The conflicting reports we keep receiving indicate that there are still several possible directions in which the electoral drama could turn. We remain alert to any change in the currently calm situation. END COMMENT. MCGEE