HISTORIC RESULTS IN, OPPOSITION WINS MAJORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000273 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS SES-O AF/S FOR S. HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC ZI SUBJECT: HISTORIC RESULTS IN, OPPOSITION WINS MAJORITY REF: HARARE 00245 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: For the first time in the country's 28 year history, ZANU-PF will not control the House of Assembly. After five days of slowly releasing results, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) finally announced the winners of the remaining seats. Of the 210 seats, MDC Tsvangirai formation won 99, ZANU-PF 97, MDC Mutambara formation 10, and an independent one. The remaining three seats will be filled with by-elections because contesting candidates on the ballot died of natural causes before Election Day. ¶2. (U) The MDC Tsvangirai formation penetrated rural areas and scored gains in Mashonaland - traditionally ruling party strongholds. Maintaining strong support in Harare, Bulawayo and Matabeleland, the swing provinces for MDC Tsvangirai proved to be Manicaland and Masvingo where they picked up huge gains. Several ZANU-PF bigwigs lost their seats, including Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Women's Affairs Minister Oppah Muchinguri. END SUMMARY. -------------- Opposition Scores Historic Victory -------------- ¶3. (U) For the first time in the country's 28 year history, the ruling ZANU-PF party will not control the House of Assembly. After five days of slowly releasing results, the ZEC finally announced the winners of the remaining seats on April 3. Up until that point, the ZEC had been announcing 10 - 15 seats at a time, alternating between calling seats for the opposition and the ruling party. ¶4. (U) Of the 210 seats, the MDC Tsvangirai formation won 99, ZANU-PF 97, MDC Mutambara formation 10, and an independent one. The remaining three seats will be filled with by-elections because contesting candidates on the ballot died of natural causes before Election Day. No single party won the absolute majority of more than 105 seats, but the two opposition parties together will control at least 109 seats and the independent candidate, Jonathan Moyo, is expected to ally himself with the opposition. The MDC is expected to win the three by-election seats as well. ¶5. (U) According to official results published in the state-run newspaper The Herald, there was a total of 2,405,147 million valid votes cast, with ZANU-PF garnering 1,112,773 (46.3 percent),MDC Tsvangirai 1,038,512 (43.2 percent),MDC Mutambara 203,146 (8.4 SIPDIS percent),and independent and other minor parties 66,721 (2.8 percent). There were 10 races won by ZANU-PF in which the total combined votes for the two MDC formations were more than the ZANU votes. There was only one race in which two ZANU-PF candidates split the vote and lost the seat to the MDC Tsvangirai candidate. -------------- Rural Areas & Swing Provinces -------------- ¶6. (U) Beyond an almost total sweep of 28 seats in the Harare and 12 seats in the Bulawayo urban constituencies, MDC Tsvangirai also managed to penetrate rural areas and Mashonaland provinces - traditional ZANU-PF strongholds. Prior to this election, the opposition held only one seat in Mashonaland provinces. In this election, MDC Tsvangirai picked up six seats in Mashonaland West, four in Mashonaland East and two in Mashonaland Central. These provinces were previously considered "no-go" areas for the opposition. This time around, however, the opposition was able to conduct door-to-door campaigning in the rural areas, and even managed to hold some small rallies. ¶7. (U) The MDC Tsvangirai formation also scored large gains in Manicaland and Masvingo provinces where it previously held two seats and one seat, respectively. This time around, however, it won 20 HARARE 00000273 002 OF 002 seats in Manicaland and 14 seats in Masvingo. The MDC Mutambara formation managed to win three seats in Matabeleland North and seven seats in Matabeleland South. ¶8. (U) Of interest was the number of votes and high turn-out for some of the ZANU-PF victories in the rural areas. There were 13 constituencies in which ZANU-PF garnered more than 10,000 votes, with 18,413 voters turning out for the ruling party in Chiredzi North. Meanwhile, MDC Tsvangirai only had two constituencies in which it attracted more than 10,000 votes. -------------- Interesting Races -------------- ¶9. (U) On the ZANU-PF side, there were some interesting losses for ruling party big wigs. Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, Women's Affairs Minister and head of ZANU-PF Women's League Oppah Muchinguri, Mines and Mining Development Minister Amos Midzi, Farm Mechanization Minister Joseph Made, and Energy Minister Mike Nyambuya all lost. Vice President Joice Mujuru, National Security, Lands, Land Reform and Resettlement Minister Didymus Mutasa, Home Affairs Minister Kembo Mohadi, Industry and International Trade Minister Obert Mpofu, and Economic Development Minister Sylvester Nguni managed to win their races. As for the leaders of the MDC Mutambara formation, Arthur Mutambara and Welshman Ncube both lost. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) A combined MDC control of the House of Assembly has far-reaching implications. If Tsvangirai ultimately becomes president, and assuming support of Mutambara formation MPs, he will be able to gain legislative support for economic and political reform. If Mugabe remains in office, the opposition will halt ZANU-PF's ability to pass repressive and confiscatory legislation. Additionally, with Constitutional Amendment 18 giving power to Parliament to sit as an electoral college should the president vacate the office for any reason, the ability of President Mugabe or his inner circle to manage a succession has been entirely compromised. END COMMENT. MCGEE