Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08HARARE26
2008-01-16 14:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:
MBEKI SEEKS FINAL AGREEMENT ON SADC TALKS
how-toVZCZCXRO3821 RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN DE RUEHSB #0026 0161418 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 161418Z JAN 08 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2379 INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1720 RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1846 RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0446 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1123 RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1480 RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1902 RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4330 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0973 RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000026
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL,
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: MBEKI SEEKS FINAL AGREEMENT ON SADC TALKS
REF: HARARE 16
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren. Reason: 1.4 (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000026
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL,
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: MBEKI SEEKS FINAL AGREEMENT ON SADC TALKS
REF: HARARE 16
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren. Reason: 1.4 (d)
1. (C) MDC sources have told us that South African president
Thabo Mbeki will travel to Harare Thursday to meet with
Robert Mugabe and attempt to conclude an agreement between
ZANU-PF and the MDC. Mbeki reportedly met personally with
ZANU-PF negotiators over the weekend in South Africa. The
most likely outcome, according to our sources, is a March
election and implementation of a new constitution before the
election. We also understand that Mbeki is concerned about
the credibility of the election and will push for
international observers.
2. (C) Comment: If in fact the agreement includes a March
election, it's difficult to see what the MDC gains since
there will be scant time to organize and take advantage of
negotiated reforms. The MDC will still be facing a
manipulated delimitation of parliamentary constituencies and
a corrupt registration process. The MDC's traditional civil
society allies demand broad consultation on constitutional
reform, so they are likely to scorn an agreement that imposes
a new constitution, whatever its merits. While the MDC may
see no option but to contest elections and may feel that it
will derive certain benefits from an agreement, an agreement
will also (at least partially) legitimize Mugabe in the event
of a ZANU-PF win. End Comment.
MCGEE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL,
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: MBEKI SEEKS FINAL AGREEMENT ON SADC TALKS
REF: HARARE 16
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren. Reason: 1.4 (d)
1. (C) MDC sources have told us that South African president
Thabo Mbeki will travel to Harare Thursday to meet with
Robert Mugabe and attempt to conclude an agreement between
ZANU-PF and the MDC. Mbeki reportedly met personally with
ZANU-PF negotiators over the weekend in South Africa. The
most likely outcome, according to our sources, is a March
election and implementation of a new constitution before the
election. We also understand that Mbeki is concerned about
the credibility of the election and will push for
international observers.
2. (C) Comment: If in fact the agreement includes a March
election, it's difficult to see what the MDC gains since
there will be scant time to organize and take advantage of
negotiated reforms. The MDC will still be facing a
manipulated delimitation of parliamentary constituencies and
a corrupt registration process. The MDC's traditional civil
society allies demand broad consultation on constitutional
reform, so they are likely to scorn an agreement that imposes
a new constitution, whatever its merits. While the MDC may
see no option but to contest elections and may feel that it
will derive certain benefits from an agreement, an agreement
will also (at least partially) legitimize Mugabe in the event
of a ZANU-PF win. End Comment.
MCGEE