NELSON CHAMISA ON MDC'S NEXT STEPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001073 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B.WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: NELSON CHAMISA ON MDC'S NEXT STEPS Classified By: CDA Katherine Dhananai for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa met with Emboffs and Washington TDYers on December 4 to discuss MDC positions and next steps. According to Chamisa, MDC-T president Morgan Tsvangirai's continued absence from Zimbabwe is creating a leadership vacuum that limits the MDC's effectiveness in negotiations with ZANU-PF and in coordinating efforts with civil society. Relatedly, Tsvangirai's reliance on U.S. advisor Melinda Farris has created a "big problem" for those in the party who seek to advise him. Sanctions continue to be an effective weapon against Mugabe and the regime, and U.S. public pressure is welcome. As to ongoing negotiations, the MDC will not agree to submit Amendment 19 to Parliament until outstanding issues are resolved. END SUMMARY. -------------- A Leadership Vacuum -------------- ¶2. (C) Chamisa had just finished speaking with Tsvangirai before beginning our meeting. Tsvangirai indicated he would not soon return to Zimbabwe. According to Chamisa, Tsvangirai did not specifically discuss the reason; Chamisa believed Tsvangirai was concerned about threats to his security and the possibility the GOZ would restrict his foreign travel once he was back in the country. ¶3. (C) Chamisa acknowledged Tsvangirai's international diplomatic efforts in Africa and Europe, but was critical of his continued absence from Zimbabwe. (Chamisa noted that other MDC leaders, including Tendai Biti, Lovemore Moyo, and Elias Midzuri had also been traveling.) ZANU-PF was taking advantage of the absence of MDC leadership by engaging in its current campaign of abductions and arrests. One of the hallmarks of Tsvangirai's leadership had been courage--he needed to be here now to demonstrate it, to work with the MDC to develop a negotiating strategy, and to coordinate with civic organizations now engaged in protest. As to Tsvangirai's security, Chamisa said many MDC leaders had received threats, but it was necessary to ignore them and lead. ¶4. (C) After the meeting, Chamisa told polecon chief that 
MDC adviser Melinda Farris was a "big problem." He thought Tsvangirai had been listening to her to the exclusion of many in the MDC leadership, including himself and Tendai Biti, with whom Farris had a strained relationship. Chamisa believed Farris had encouraged Tsvangirai to remain outside of Zimbabwe. -------------- Sanctions an Essential Tool -------------- ¶5. (C) We asked Chamisa about Tsvangirai's statement at the European Development Commission on November 17 that instead of sanctions Zimbabwe needed more emergency assistance. (NOTE: The government press subsequently portrayed this as a new sensibility on the part of the MDC. END NOTE.) Chamisa speculated that Tsvangirai was trying to demonstrate good will to both European leaders and ZANU-PF in the context of continuing negotiations. Nevertheless, Chamisa thought Tsvangirai's comment was misplaced. Sanctions, according to Chamisa, had been effective. By way of example, he said ZANU-PF negotiator Patrick Chinamasa had recently told him that but for ZANU-PF's desire to have sanctions lifted, it HARARE 00001073 002 OF 002 would not have engaged in negotiations with the MDC and would have "finished it off." Chamisa supported a continuation of U.S. sanctions policy. ¶6. (C) Chamisa urged the U.S. to continue to speak out about the situation in Zimbabwe. The MDC had few friends in the region, and it was important for the U.S. and others to demonstrate support for democratic change in Zimbabwe. -------------- Amendment 19 Only a Step -------------- ¶7. (C) Chamisa told us that Amendment 19 was only a step in the negotiating process. The MDC would not finalize an agreement and submit Amendment 19 to the Parliamentary process until outstanding issues had been resolved. The most important of these was an equitable distribution of all ministries--not just agreement on Home Affairs. Other issues included a division of governorships, naming of ambassadors and permanent secretaries (while Amendment 19 addressed the appointment process, there needed to be political agreement on percentage distributions among the parties),and discrepancies between the document agreed to on September 11 and the document signed on September 15. ¶8. (C) Chamisa said negotiators had agreed at the time of agreement on the draft of Amendment 19 to meet within two weeks to discuss the outstanding issues. Tendai Biti was expected back in Zimbabwe this weekend, and negotiations would probably resume soon thereafter. ¶9. (C) Chamisa said that ideally there would be new, internationally supervised elections. As a practical matter, this was unlikely to occur. SADC was not supportive, and ZANU-PF would resist. Therefore the focus should be on an agreement that would allow the MDC to share power in a transition government, and on the subsequent drafting of a new constitution under which the MDC would win an election and govern on its own. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) At a critical stage in the negotiating process, with security forces cracking down on attempted protests, and with the abduction of Jestina Mukoko, the head of the Zimbabwe Peace Project, Tsvangirai's absence from Zimbabwe is noteworthy. He is failing to seize an opportunity to provide leadership both to his party and to the Zimbabwean people, and ZANU-PF is taking advantage. END COMMENT. DHANANI