ZIMBABWE AMENDMENT 19 AND THE STATE OF PLAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001065 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B.WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE AMENDMENT 19 AND THE STATE OF PLAY REF: HARARE 1034 Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Negotiators from ZANU-PF, MDC-T, and MDC-M agreed on a draft Amendment 19 to the Zimbabwean constitution on November 27. The draft, which essentially incorporates the agreement reached by the parties in September, now awaits approval by party leaders Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai, and Arthur Mutambara. Apart from the Amendment, several outstanding issues remain, including allocation of ministries including Home Affairs, allocation of governorships, and composition and function of the National Security Council. ¶2. (SBU) Tsvangirai remains outside of Zimbabwe and is visiting African capitals in an effort to rally AU support. Until his return, there are unlikely to be meetings on approving Amendment 19 or negotiating other issues. ZANU-PF is scheduled to hold its annual conference from December 10 to December 12. Despite dissension from former ZAPU members and allies of General Solomon Mujuru, who would like to replace Mugabe as ZANU-PF head and Zimbabwe's president, the issue of succession is unlikely to be addressed. END SUMMARY. -------------- Amendment 19 and Outstanding Issues -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Both ZANU-PF and MDC-T presented their own versions of draft amendments to SADC facilitator Thabo Mbeki's team. All three parties ultimately agreed on a draft which for all intents and purposes is the same as the September power-sharing agreement (now referred to in Amendment 19 as the Inter-Party Political Agreement). With regard to issues MDC-T had argued were not resolved by the September agreement: -- Allocation of ministries. This was the major area of disagreement between the parties with the MDC-t requesting discussion on an "equitable" allocation of all ministries. Ultimately, the discussion focused on control of the Home Affairs Ministry. The issue of allocation of ministries, including Home Affairs, is not addressed by draft Amendment ¶19. --Appointment of ambassadors and permanent secretaries. The draft Amendment 19 adopts the formula of the September agreement. The president, vice presidents, prime minister, and deputy prime ministers must agree on such appointments. --Allocation of governorships. This issue was not addressed in either the September agreement or draft Amendment 19 and is subject to further negotiations. --National Security Council. Draft Amendment 19 and the September agreement both state that the president chairs the Council and that the prime minister is a member. The composition and role of the COUNCIL are not defined. The MDC considers this an outstanding issue to be negotiated. --Definition of "consultation." Both draft Amendment 19 and the September agreement state that the president "in consultation with the prime minister, makes key appointments the president is required to make under and in terms of the Constitution or any Act of Parliament." Amendment 19 defines "in consultation" to require agreement of the individual consulted. HARARE 00001065 002 OF 003 --Discrepancies between the document agreed to by the parties on September 11 and the agreement signed by the parties on September 15. The three discrepancies dealt with the number and sharing between parties of additional appointed Senate seats; the appointment of vice-presidents, prime minister, and deputy prime ministers from outside Parliament, and the appointment of ministers from outside the ranks of members of Parliament. The discrepancies are noted in draft Amendment 19 and are to be resolved by the principals. ¶4. (U) If an agreement is reached by the principals on draft Amendment 19, it must then be officially published (gazetted). After a 30 day period to allow for public comment, it can then be introduced in Parliament. Assuming agreement, it could be passed immediately. ¶5. (C) According to MDC sources, all outstanding issues could be readily resolved with the exception of control of the Home Affairs Ministry. Negotiators from all three parties agreed to discuss the outstanding issues at the time of negotiations on Amendment 19, but no date has been set for such discussions. -------------- Other Issues -------------- ¶6. (SBU) While not flagged by either party, there are other issues that could emerge in efforts to conclude an agreement. In its draft, ZANU-PF sought to validate all ministerial acts between the date of the adjournment of Parliament on June 8 and the enactment of Amendment 19. Some of these acts would be unconstitutional since the ministers in question did not hold parliamentary seats. The MDC would presumably want to start from a clean slate. Relatedly, Mugabe appointed Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono last week to a new five-year term. This appointment was obviously outside the spirit of the September agreement. Also, since the constitution requires the president to consult with the finance minister before making the appointment, and the finance minister was not a member of parliament, the MDC could argue the consultation and resulting appointment was unconstitutional. ¶7. (SBU) The MDC-T Amendment 19 proposal contained a provision for the new Committee on Standing Rules and Orders to make new appointments to the Electoral Commission, the Anti-Corruption Commission, and the HUMAN RIGHTS Commission; ZANU's draft explicitly called for current Elections Commission officers to retain their posts. This provision is not contained in Amendment 19 leaving open the possibility that existing members of these commissions will continue to serve. Given the importance in particular of the Electoral Commission, the MDC may once again raise this issue. -------------- Tsvangirai's Whereabouts -------------- ¶8. (C) Tsvangirai has been outside of Zimbabwe for the last several weeks seeking to gain support for the MDC-T's negotiating position. Stops have included South Africa, France, Germany, Tanzania, Botswana, and most recently Senegal. He reportedly has plans to visit Kenya and Zambia. The GOZ, which for months has promised, but failed, to give him a passport, has indicated it will investigate him for traveling beyond the scope of his travel document. With apparent concerns that he may have trouble leaving Zimbabwe after returning, Tsvangirai has no definitive plans to return. MDC-T officials have told us they believe he will return within the next week. Until Tsvangirai returns, HARARE 00001065 003 OF 003 Amendment 19 cannot be adopted and signed. -------------- ZANU-PF Conference -------------- ¶9. (SBU) ZANU-PF is scheduled to hold its annual conference from December 10 to December 12. Before last year's conference, General Solomon Mujuru tried to place the issue of succession on the agenda with the aim of removing Mugabe. Mugabe outmaneuvered Mujuru and succession was never discussed. ZANU-PF continues to be riven by dissension, principally from Mujuru and his loyalists in Mashonaland East, and from ex-ZAPU members. But there are as yet no signs that the dissidents will mount an effective challenge, and all signs point to a well-orchestrated and smooth conference with no challenge to Mugabe. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Under Amendment 19, as with the September agreement, Mugabe would head the cabinet and Tsvangirai would head a council of ministers. Both men would have executive authority. Although certain duties of the president and prime minister are delineated, it is unclear how the president and cabinet and the prime minister and COUNCIL would coordinate the formulation and implementation of policy. Success in governing would be dependent upon the good will of the respective leaders and parties, something that has been noticeably absent on the part of ZANU-PF. ¶11. (C) Article 19 represents a vehicle for the MDC to enter government. The MDC must decide whether it believes that by becoming part of government it can reach a modus vivendi with ZANU-PF to stabilize the country with the ultimate goal of ultimately defeating ZANU-PF in elections, or whether it would be better off remaining outside of government, fighting the GOZ and ZANU-PF from within Parliament, and waiting for ZANU-PF to collapse. If the MDC decides not to join government it will use the issue of an inequitable allocation of ministries (assuming ZANU-PF does not relent on Home Affairs) to justify its position. Meanwhile, as the negotiating game continues, the country and its people continue to suffer. McGee