ZIMBABWEAN INSIDERS BRIEF AMBASSADORS MCGEE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001056

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN INSIDERS BRIEF AMBASSADORS MCGEE AND
BOST ON POLITICAL STALEMATE AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) MDC-T negotiator and treasurer Elton Mangoma,
civil-society leader Lovemore Madhuku, and Harare Mayor
Muchadeyi Masunda on November 24 briefed Ambassador McGee and
U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Bost on the political and
economic crises facing Zimbabwe. Friendly members of the
diplomatic corps joined the two U.S. Ambassadors for a
working lunch in which analytical assessments and policy
options were discussed. Topics of discussion included the
reaction by the MDC-T to the recently concluded emergency
SADC Summit in South Africa, the leverage South Africa could
apply in breaking the political impasse, President Mugabe's
mindset, the need for public activism, and the state of what
remains of Zimbabwe's formal economy. END SUMMARY.

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MDC-T Frustrated by African Neighbors
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2. (C) MDC-T negotiator and treasurer, Elton Mangoma,
reported that the MDC-T leadership was shocked at the lack of
support it received from African neighbors at the SADC Summit
on November 16. The MDC-T had expected that the majority of
SADC nations would see the equity in its proposals and in the
aftermath of the summit felt that SADC had not had the
courage to stand up to Mugabe. Particularly disappointing
was the passive role played by South African President
Motlanthe who, according to Mangoma, had come close to
apologizing after the summit and admitted that SADC had
"handled it badly." This situation was leading to doubts
within the MDC-T leadership over whether a future South
African President Jacob Zuma would take a discernibly
stronger position in dealing with Mugabe than that of former
President Thabo Mbeki. Mangoma said that if South Africa put
real political and economic pressure on Zimbabwe the impasse
could be "resolved in a matter of days."


3. (C) Mangoma's post mortem explanation of events at the
SADC summit was that Southern African nations viewed giving
genuine power to the MDC-T as setting a dangerous precedent.
Nearly all of them remain one-party states that in many cases
sprung from national independence movements. The possibility
of an upstart party taking power in their own countries was
seen as threatening. He said discussion of democracy by
these leaders was merely paying lip-service to the U.S. and
others.


4. (C) When asked why Mugabe would not reach an
accommodation with his rivals * genuine or otherwise *
merely to receive international assistance, Mangoma described
his perception of Mugabe's decision making. He said after
nearly three decades of rule Mugabe is completely immersed in
power games, and he "does not worry about how many people
perish along the way." One thing he still cares about is the
perception by other African states of his legitimacy to rule
Zimbabwe based on his role in the liberation struggle. He
enjoys being seen as fighting for a cause, and standing up to
the West has become his cause.

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Civil Society Trying to Get Out the Numbers
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5. (C) Lovemore Madhuku, the president of the National
Constitutional Assembly (NCA),a prominent civil society

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organization that has been an organizer of peaceful protests,
told us that the failure of the talks to make any progress
has led to a loss of hope for many ordinary Zimbabweans.
Additionally, ongoing negotiations have dissipated much of
the momentum to generate more public activism and organize
large protests. Madhuku said such a strategy would require a
"grand political decision" from the MDC, which for the moment
remains focused on generating outside pressure on the regime
(from SADC, the AU and the UN) rather than mobilizing
grassroots support for building up internal pressure in
Zimbabwe. In Madhuku's view, both the negotiations and the
external strategy have failed to generate sufficient pressure
on the regime to force change. He said that such pressure
would have to come from the people.


6. (C) Madhuku explained many Zimbabweans are unwilling to
participate in large anti-government demonstrations out of
fear that the government will harshly suppress demonstrations
with violence. He has been organizing regular protests but
has not been able to mobilize people in the thousands because
of lack of resources. Specifically, his organization cannot
provide people with bus fare to come to downtown Harare or
Bulawayo, which was why demonstrations have not exceeded a
few hundred at a time. This week the NCA has scheduled
marches in Harare, Bulawayo, Mutare, Masvingo and Gweru. He
asked for our assistance in financing mass protests. He was
encouraged to build a coalition of like-minded Zimbabwean
organizations that were inclined to actively protest for an
end to the crisis situation.

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Last Legs of Formal Economy Buckling
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7. (SBU) Harare Mayor Muchadeyi Masunda, who sits on the
board of directors of several prominent Zimbabwean companies,
revealed that now even the largest Zimbabwean companies are
facing collapse. Masunda said that Bindura Nickel was being
forced to shut down, ZimPlats was dramatically scaling down
its operations despite its South African ownership, gold
miners were no longer being paid by the Reserve Bank to whom
they were obligated to sell their gold, and even financial
stalwart Old Mutual Zimbabwe was suffering as it had been
told to shift 35 percent of its stock market holdings to
government investments.


8. (U) Meanwhile, ordinary Zimbabweans and the informal
economy that has absorbed many people previously employed in
the formal sector are being sustained by remittances from the
diaspora.


9. (C) On politics, Masunda felt that cracks were widening
in ZANU-PF and party dissatisfaction was high. He
specifically cited the recent defection of some ZAPU leaders
as indicative of sentiment within ZANU-PF ranks. Masunda
said that Mugabe "knows that he's screwed up and the only
thing that is keeping him going is that he cannot countenance
the thought of being tried internationally for crimes against
humanity."

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Like-Mindeds Think Alike
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10. (C) Ambassador McGee hosted lunch with Ambassadors from
like-minded nations, specifically heads of mission from
Australia, Germany, the European Commission, and the UK. The
consensus was that South Africa wields the most external
leverage over Zimbabwe and needs to be pressured to use that
leverage to help deliver political reforms in Zimbabwe. The

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argument most likely to resonate is that stability in
Zimbabwe is in South Africa's own best interest.


11. (C) Domestically, the group felt that the MDC-T had not
done enough to build coalitions and present a unified front.
The MDC-T needs to mend fences with the MDC-M and reach out
to disaffected and former ZANU-PF members, including Simba
Makoni and Dumiso Dabengwa. The MDC also needs to join
forces with civil society to coordinate efforts to mobilize
large numbers that would signal domestically and
internationally that Zimbabweans have had enough.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) There was general agreement expressed by all
interlocutors that two kinds of pressure could enhance the
chances for democratic transition in Zimbabwe: pressure on
Mugabe from South Africa and a unified and forceful
opposition mobilization inside the country. Unfortunately,
neither appears imminent. On the one hand, South African
President Motlanthe reportedly blames Tsvangirai for the
stalemate in Zimbabwe. On the other, Tsvangirai's return to
Zimbabwe does not appear imminent and there is no evidence
the MDC-T has learned to appreciate the usefulness of
outreach to rivals within Zimbabwe's opposition movement.
END COMMENT.

McGee