LEADERSHIP CHANGES AT MFA, HANOI CITY GOVERNMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000857 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PHUM SOCI PREL PGOV VM SUBJECT: LEADERSHIP CHANGES AT MFA, HANOI CITY GOVERNMENT REF: HANOI 482 HANOI 00000857 001.2 OF 002 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has added three vice ministers, although with some of the four current ministers likely to take other positions how many total vice ministers the ministry will have remains to be seen. There is speculation that the changes lay the groundwork for current MFA Vice Minister Pham Binh Minh to take over as Foreign Minister, but contacts who regularly interact with senior Party officials say Minh will not be moving into this position any time soon. Meanwhile Hanoi Party Secretary and Politburo member Pham Quang Nghi will stay in his position under the new expanded Hanoi governing structure (Reftel). Party contacts say some Politburo members wanted the current Danang Party Secretary to serve as Hanoi People's Committee Chairman (the number two position in the new Hanoi structure),but that Nghi and his Politburo allies successfully fought the proposal. End Summary. How Many Vice Ministers for MFA? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is in the midst of re-arranging vice minister portfolios, with a formal announcement on responsibilities expected "soon." Three career diplomats have become vice ministers: Doan Xuan Hung, Nguyen Quoc Cuong and Ho Xuan Son. It is not clear how many vice ministers the MFA will have after all the dust settles. If none of the current vice minister slots are eliminated, the MFA would have a total of seven vice ministers. ¶3. (SBU) Currently, the four other vice ministers are Pham Binh Minh (Americas, Europe and Middle East),Vu Dung (Northeast Asia),Dao Viet Trung (Protocol) and Nguyen Van Tho (Southeast Asia). Drawing on his background as former vice chairman of the National Border Affairs Committee, Ho Xuan Son will cover border issues in his new position. Has Pham Binh Minh's Time Come? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Some local commentators and foreign diplomats say the changes lay the groundwork for Vice Minister Minh to become Foreign Minister (FM). They suggest that the MFA, to avoid being too top heavy, could reduce the number of vice ministers to three. If two of the current seven vice ministers retire or take on ambassadorships, the ministry would be left with four vice ministers and Minh could move up to FM in this scenario. ¶5. (SBU) Minh has unique strengths as a possible FM. He is the son of Nguyen Co Thach, who participated in the Paris Peace talks and who as FM in the late 1980s tried but failed to re-establish diplomatic relations with the United States. Minh also is a non-voting member of the 181-person Party Central Committee and, unlike the current FM, speaks excellent English. ¶6. (SBU) However, a contact with excellent Party and GVN ties on July 21 told POLOFF it is "unlikely" Minh will take over as FM any time soon. At 49 years of age, Minh is still relatively young, this contact explains. While he may have presided over some important diplomatic successes, such as planning and executing Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung's recent visit to Washington, the Party has determined that the person in the FM slot should be on the Politburo as well, this contact says. Minh currently is a non-voting member of the Central Committee (CC) and, for him to ascend to the Politburo, he likely would have to become a voting CC member first, according to this contact. In addition, some senior leaders remain pleased (NFI) with Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem's management of Vietnam's foreign affairs, this contact asserts. ¶7. (SBU) Another contact who is close to former Foreign Minister Nguyen Manh Cam (who was FM when Vietnam normalized relations with the USG) notes that Minh is well-educated and has an important patron in PM Nguyen Tan Dung. However, the fact that Minh is Nguyen Co Thach's son may actually hurt his chances of becoming FM, this contact explains. This is because many current Party leaders have bad memories of Thach carrying out General Secretary Le Duan's policy of tilting Hanoi "too heavily" toward the Soviet Union and "ignoring China," the contact says. The Party Line-up in Expanded Hanoi -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In other personnel news, the Communist Party of Vietnam on July 14 announced that Pham Quang Nghi, Poliburo member and current Hanoi Party Secretary, will remain in his position in the new expanded Hanoi governing structure (Reftel). A total of five deputy secretaries, with two from neighboring Ha Tay Province, will serve under Nghi. As part of the plan to roll Ha Tay provincial administrators into the expanded Hanoi governing structure, the HANOI 00000857 002.2 OF 002 Party created new deputy secretary positions as well as other positions. The new expanded Hanoi Party Executive Committee is scheduled to hold its first meeting on August 1. ¶9. (SBU) Party contacts tell us some Politburo members wanted current Danang Party Secretary Nguyen Ba Thanh to serve as Hanoi People's Committee Chairman (the number two position under Nghi). These Politburo members wanted Thanh in this position so he could drive economic and infrastructure development in the capital area, these contacts say. (Note: Thanh is known to have done well in Danang city planning. End Note). However, Party Secretary Nghi and his Politburo allies successfully scuttled the proposal, these contacts add. Comment: Minh's Star on Rise, Thanh's Appeal Fading? -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) If Vice Minister Minh continues to deliver successes in Hanoi's relations with Europe and the United States, he would be well-placed to follow in his father's footsteps and become FM. However, he clearly has some work left to do in convincing officials not in PM Dung's camp that he could deftly carry out Hanoi's foreign policy of balancing the "big powers" and is the right man for the job. ¶11. (SBU) Comment Continued: As for the personnel moves in Hanoi, Danang Party Secretary Thanh would have shaken things up here. However, bringing leaders from central Vietnam into northern Party cliques historically has proven difficult. Many Party and business contacts regard Thanh as one of the most control-minded Party Secretaries in the country; nothing gets done in Danang without his approval. Because he focused on economic development, he helped set the stage for future growth but may have outlived his usefulness to the city. Businesses -- both local and foreign investors -- openly complain about Danang's stifling bureaucracy and opaque decision-making. ¶12. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen Ho Chi Minh City. MICHALAK