FROM THE PM DOWN, VIETNAM,S LEADERSHIP LEANING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L HANOI 001336 EAP/MLS FOR BROWN; USTR FOR BWIESEL AND DBISBEE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018 TAGS: ETRD ECON POL VM SUBJECT: FROM THE PM DOWN, VIETNAM,S LEADERSHIP LEANING TO TPP MEMBERSHIP Classified By: Econ Officer Joaquin F. Monserrate For Reasons 1.4 (B)(D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung told the Ambassador on December 5 that he supported Vietnam,s entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Separately, officials from the Foreign affairs and the Trade and Industry ministries confirmed that the Prime Minister has told his Cabinet that he wants Vietnam to join. Vietnam is mulling when to make an announcement, and whether to join as an observer or as a full member. Post believes that there is a high likelihood that if Vietnam decides to join, it will do so as an observer and announce it before the end of this month. END SUMMARY. TOP DOG SUPPORT -------------- ¶2. (C) At the closing of the Consultative Group meetings (Septel) on December 5, Vietnamese Prime Minister (PM) Nguyen Tan Dung told the Ambassador and the New Zealand Ambassador, in response to the latter,s question, that he strongly supported Vietnam,s entry into the TPP. He made the remark more than once, and even toasted to it, during the reception that followed the Consultative Group. ¶3. (C) The PM,s support for TPP was later confirmed by Vietnamese Ambassador to the United States, Le Cong Phung, on December 7 in Hanoi, and by Nguyen Duong, Deputy Director General of the Trade and Industry Ministry (MOIT),on December 8. &He has told us that he wants it,8 Duong acknowledged. Although Duong reminded us that the PM,s support did not mean that a decision has been made, he seemed to be confident that Vietnam would join TPP.\\ MINISTERIAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO PREVAIL -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Trade official,s assessment seemed to reflect the prevailing views in the PM,s Cabinet. During a Singapore-U.S. TPP briefing for Vietnam,s interagency community held in Hanoi from December 3 to 5, officials from various ministries told Econoff that &the recommendations have already been made, and are pending above the ministerial level.8 In fact, much of the discussion during the briefings centered on how Vietnam would join rather than whether it would do so. (MOIT has led the interagency efforts to study and propose a course of action on TPP.) ¶5. (C) MOIT,s Duong told Econoff that there was little doubt that, if Vietnam joined, it would be as an observer (or &associate member,8 a term that is being used by all sides indistinguishably from that of &8observer8). Our counterparts at MOIT and other ministries also tell us that the country,s decision-makers understand the time-sensitivities of a decision, and expect one to be made before the end of December. COMMENT: LINING UP ALL THE TOP DOGS -------------- ¶6. (C) The Prime Minister,s support is as good indication as any that Vietnam will join the TPP. The fact that this does not signal that the decision is final is a reflection of the complex decision-making process in Vietnam, which involves the buy-in of others besides the PM. This includes those outside his Cabinet, like the Politburo and Party Secretary, but also includes figures like Nguyen Sinh Hung, who besides being a powerful Politburo member is his Deputy Prime Minister and has supervision over the State,s investment corporation and the Finance Ministry -- two of the sectors most opposed to further market opening. Vietnam,s decision on TPP and how fast it can announce it will be a reflection of the PM,s persuasive powers over his influential colleagues. MICHALAK