STROLLING DOWN RED CARPET: VIETNAMESE LEADERS SEEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001286 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018 TAGS: ECON ETRD PGOV PHUM VM SUBJECT: STROLLING DOWN RED CARPET: VIETNAMESE LEADERS SEEK EXTERNAL BALANCE AND INTERNAL ADVANTAGE REF: A. HANOI 1241 ¶B. HANOI 1094 ¶C. HANOI 1163 HANOI 00001286 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol Counselor Brian Aggeler for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Over the past month, Vietnam's leaders have been especially busy carrying out Vietnam's "friends with all" foreign policy, visiting Beijing and Moscow and welcoming top leaders from around the world. According to an expert on Vietnam's foreign relations, the advisory councils of Hanoi's four top leaders work with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Party External Relations Commission in recommending travel for these leaders. Two well-placed contacts separately told us that many Vietnamese elites view Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung as "pro-Western"; the PM's late October trip to Beijing allowed him to show internally that he could stand up for Vietnam's interests no matter where they lie, one of these contacts said. As for President Nguyen Minh Triet's late October trip to Moscow, the two sides reached several agreements, including one granting the oil giant Gazprom rights to develop three blocks in contested South China Sea waters (Ref. A); however, a contact close to Party and military elites was skeptical the deals would bring much benefit to Vietnam and he thus deemed Triet's trip as unhelpful to the president's overall standing. End Summary. Breaking Out The Frequent Flier Cards -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Over the past month, Vietnamese leaders have been especially busy with high-level exchanges. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung made a State visit to China on October 22 and President Nguyen Minh Triet paid visits to Russia from October 27-29 and Mongolia on October 31. The President also began a four-day State visit to Venezuela on November 19. Among the visitors to Hanoi over the past month have included a Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member, the Cambodian prime minister, the Slovakian prime minister, the Polish defense minister, the Czech Communist Party head, the Malaysian foreign minister and Bulgarian deputy prime minister and Armed Forces chief of staff. On November 7, Hanoi also played host to the third Ayeyawady-Chao Praya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Summit and the fourth Cambodia-Laos-Myanmar-Vietnam Summit, both of which brought the Thai, Cambodian, Burmese and Laotian prime ministers to Vietnam's capital. Deciding Who Goes Where in "Friends With All" Era -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Colonel Tran Nhung, former editor of the military's mouthpiece "Quan Doi Nhan Dan," told Poloff on November 13 that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is involved in planning and executing leadership travel, but is not solely responsible for deciding who goes where. Each of Vietnam's top four leaders -- General Secretary Nong Duc Manh, President Nguyen Minh Triet, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and National Assembly Chairman Nguyen Phu Trong -- have their own advisory councils that put forward travel recommendations. These bodies "consult" with the MFA and Party External Relations Commission to determine how a visit advances Vietnam's interests and preserves a "balance" in the country's foreign relations, Nhung said. After consensus is reached, recommendations are then forwarded to the Party's Secretariat, which oversees day-to-day Politburo operations, the Colonel said. Nhung was unaware of any instance in which the Secretariat did not follow consensus recommendations reached earlier. What Are Leaders Seeking To Accomplish? -------------- ¶4. (C) Vietnam is unique in that its top four leaders technically share power, Colonel Nhung said. He and MFA Diplomatic Academy researcher Dr. Nguyen Vu Tung separately told Poloff that leaders point to deals reached during their travels to try to strengthen their positions internally. Vung cited the example of PM Dung's trip to the United States last summer. The PM wanted his U.S. visit to be distinct from other leaders' travel, Tung said. In planning the trip, PM Dung wanted to make sure he could showcase internally the "big deals" he secured, Tung added. ¶5. (C) Colonel Nhung told Poloff that the PM's recent trip to Beijing allowed him to show his domestic audience that Chinese leaders cannot "easily influence" him. The Colonel and InvestConsult's Tran Bat separately told Poloff that many Vietnamese regard Dung as "pro-western" because of his travel to Europe and America earlier this year and his economic reform credentials. In going to Beijing, Dung was able to HANOI 00001286 002.2 OF 002 demonstrate that he is "pro-Vietnam" more than anything else and is willing to go wherever it takes to defend Vietnam's interests and secure good deals, Nhung declared. ¶6. (SBU) As for specifics surrounding the Beijing trip, the Vietnam/China joint statement cited eight important documents the two sides signed, including deals on infrastructure development and a "strategic cooperation" agreement between PetroVietnam and Chinese National Oil Company. Though details and timelines were vague, PM Dung and his Chinese hosts also reportedly agreed that their two countries would conduct joint surveys in Gulf of Tonkin waters and to "gradually advance negotiations on maritime economic zones." (Note: Ref. B provides an analysis of Vietnam's relations with Beijing). ¶7. (C) During President Triet's trip to Russia, the president agreed with his Russian hosts to expand cooperation in oil and gas, energy, manufacturing, mining, banking and telecommunications. (Note: Ref. C examines Vietnam's dealings with Russia. End Note). However, Colonel Nhung assessed President Triet's trip to Russia as "unsuccessful." He pointed out that, while Triet received a warm welcome (he met President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin) and the two sides signed agreements, two-way trade between Vietnam and Russia remains relatively low and the agreements likely will "not bring much concrete benefit" to Vietnam. (Ref. A examines the PetroVietnam and Gazprom deal. End Note). When pressed as to why Triet went to Russia at all, the Colonel said he "had to go" because it was just after Prime Minister Dung's trip to China and the GVN wants to preserve "balanced relations" with the big powers. Comment: Smile for the Cameras -------------- ¶8. (C) Not a week goes by in Vietnam without a front page story in State press about Government or Party leaders visiting a foreign capital or receiving a foreign head of state. The constant level of exchanges shows just how far Vietnam has come from the dark days of the 1980's, when Hanoi was diplomatically isolated because of its occupation of Cambodia. Vietnamese leaders now seem to be competing with one another to generate headline news about their high-level exchanges. Vietnam's state-run press was, for example, careful to balance its coverage of PM Dung's June visit to the White House with stories emphasizing GS Manh's role as host to the Cambodian King. That said, determining exactly how these high-level exchanges advance individual leaders' standing within Vietnam remains an art, not a science. MICHALAK