SCENESETTER FOR VISIT BY OES ASSISTANT SECRETARY MCMURRAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 HANOI 001258 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR OES, EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV TBIO SOCI PREL ECON KFLU KHIV VM SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT BY OES ASSISTANT SECRETARY MCMURRAY TO VIETNAM Introduction -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Mission Vietnam looks forward to welcoming you to Ho Chi Minh City, Can Tho and Cat Tien National Park. Your visit will be an important signal to the Vietnamese of the importance of our growing bilateral environmental relationship, especially as we seek to build on the progress made during Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung's June visit to the White House. Your participation in the opening of the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) Institute at Can Tho University will highlight U.S.-Vietnam cooperation on climate change. Meetings with several Government of Vietnam (GVN) ministries and agencies will provide the opportunity to build upon ongoing wildlife protection efforts. You may also wish to stress Vietnam's need to balance rapid economic growth with environmental considerations. Your interlocutors may raise the issue of Agent Orange/dioxin and will seek increased U.S. assistance in this area. ¶2. (SBU) Our bilateral relationship with Vietnam is arguably at its highest point since relations were normalized in 1995. Our strengthening relations are in large part due to Vietnam and the US seeing the mutual strategic value of expanding their partnership. Vietnam is the 13th most populous country in the world and a critical geo-strategic partner for the US in Asia, while the US is one of Vietnam's largest economic and trading partners, as well as, the key balance force in maintaining a stable geopolitical environment, assured independence and freedom of action. Conservative voices in Vietnam's leadership remain wary of U.S. intentions, but their influence is waning as the country's young population -- the first generation in memory to live without war -- looks to the West. The United States is Vietnam's largest export market and third largest overall trade partner, and U.S. investment in Vietnam continues to grow. Vietnam also sees in the United States an increasingly important source of investment and financial and technical assistance. We see this quite explicitly in the context of our environmental and science and technology interactions, where our Vietnamese partners repeatedly seek broader and deeper cooperation. Strategically, Vietnam increasingly views the U.S. presence in the region as a force for stability, a perspective evident in the inaugural rounds of Political-Defense and Policy Planning talks, held October 6 and 31, respectively. Vietnam is also taking a more active role in multilateral diplomacy, both as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and as an emerging leader in ASEAN. In addition to supporting regional efforts to combat infectious disease and mitigate climate change, we are encouraging Vietnam to play a more proactive, constructive role at the UNSC and to contribute to global peacekeeping operations. ¶3. (SBU) Profound differences remain, however, particularly in our approach to human rights. While Vietnam has made strides in improving religious freedom -- resulting in the country being removed from the list of "Countries of Particular Concern" -- there has not been a corresponding improvement in political rights or press freedom. Suspicion over our human rights reporting and advocacy almost certainly are a main reason for the cumbersome restrictions that the GVN continues to place on our HCMC consulate operations. Although Vietnamese are overall quite positive about the United States, they react defensively to criticism, particularly on human rights, and tend to counter with references to "legacies of the war," in particular Agent Orange. We have our differences too on how Vietnam approaches international issues. While taking its UNSC obligations seriously, Vietnam's non-interventionist line has caused it to align with Russia and China on issues such as Georgia and Darfur. China, understandably, remains Vietnam's strategic obsession and provides the subtext for Hanoi's "friends to all" foreign policy -- an approach that can at first seem naive, but which is firmly rooted in real politic. Climate Change -------------- ¶4. (U) Thanks to your support, during Prime Minister Dung's recent visit to Washington, the two nations agreed to set up a new joint subcommittee under the existing bilateral Science and Technology Agreement to advance specific areas of cooperation on climate change adaptation and mitigation. The two nations have named co-chairs for the subcommittee and those co-chairs are finalizing terms of reference for the group in anticipation of the first meeting in early 2009. Also during the Prime Minister's visit, the United States and Vietnam announced the creation of the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) Institute at Can Tho University. Supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, the DRAGON Institute will facilitate cooperation among scientists and policy makers to address environmental issues, especially climate change, threatening the Mekong Delta. You will lead the U.S. delegation attending the official opening of the Institute in Can Tho on November 20. HANOI 00001258 002 OF 005 ¶5. (U) The June 2008 Joint Statement between President Bush and Prime Minister Dung prominently mentioned climate change and reflected the high level attention the GVN now pays to this issue. Prime Minister Dung recently agreed to chair the GVN steering committee on climate change and the Prime Minister expects to release the Vietnamese National Target Program on climate change within the next few weeks. While the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) will coordinate GVN climate change policy, several other ministries, particularly the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD),will play important roles in developing GVN adaptation and mitigation responses. Vietnamese officials now are well-versed about the environmental, social, economic, and security threats posed by rising sea levels, higher temperatures, and changing storm patterns. ¶6. (U) U.S. climate change support has expanded rapidly over the past few years. Mission Vietnam works to assure coordination among U.S. agencies, with our Vietnamese partners, and with other international donors. Various U.S. agencies, including USAID, the U.S. Forest Service, and NOAA participate in projects that directly or indirectly support Vietnam's climate change response. Expanded cooperation from the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to support the creation of the necessary safety and security infrastructure for Vietnam's planned civilian nuclear power sector may help mitigate Vietnam's future greenhouse gas emissions. Locally, the United States plays an active role in the Donor Coordinating Committee on Climate Change headed by UNDP. Wildlife Protection -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Domestic consumption and regional exports of wild animal products threaten Vietnam's once-abundant wildlife. Vietnam serves as a source, destination, and transit point for the illegal wildlife trade. According to the Vietnam office of INTERPOL, illegally traded wildlife in Vietnam primarily consists of pangolins, various species of rare snakes, and monkeys, with an annual value in the tens of millions dollars. Within Vietnam, the lucrative illegal wildlife trade attracts a diverse group of participants, ranging from farmers and underemployed rural villagers to high-ranking government officials and well-connected trading companies. Lack of high-level political will hamstrings GVN enforcement of wildlife protection laws, but increasingly strong NGO-funded public education campaigns, and a bureaucratic framework of protection that's already in place, may help turn the tide. However, since Vietnamese craving for wild meat and animal-based traditional medicines seemingly trump conservation concerns, changing the behavior of Vietnamese consumers is critical. ¶8. (SBU) Vietnam became a member of CITES in 1994 and domestic law requires permits to import and export threatened wildlife. Over the past decade the GVN has issued numerous strategies and decrees to protect wild fauna and flora and the Vietnamese criminal code authorizes stiff penalties, including long jail sentences, for those involved in the illegal wildlife trade. However, as in many developing countries, enforcement remains the issue. The Forest Protection Department (FPD) within MARD has primary (but not exclusive) responsibility for the protection of Vietnamese flora and fauna. However, FPD must coordinate with many of the other entities with wildlife protection responsibilities, including local police forces, customs officials, and border guards, and has no enforcement powers. The Environmental Police Department, recently established by the powerful Ministry of Public Security, has jumped into wildlife protection and earns strong marks from local NGOs. Nevertheless, while various entities within the GVN initiated over 600 criminal investigations over the past eight years, they have targeted a small fraction of the trade. ¶9. (U) Through the ASEAN Wildlife Enforcement Network, the United States has paired with prominent international wildlife NGOs to provide a full range of training programs to Vietnamese wildlife protection agencies. In August, ASEAN WEN sponsored a conference for Vietnamese prosecutors, judges, and environmental police to meet with their counterparts from the United States, Malaysia, and Indonesia to share information about regional wildlife trafficking, wildlife crimes in Vietnam, and challenges facing Vietnamese efforts to respond to wildlife smuggling. A local NGO, Education for Nature Vietnam (ENV),recently received State Department grant to host a seminar bringing together wildlife protection NGOs from throughout Asia to strengthen regional cooperation in the battle against wildlife trafficking. Additionally, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service funds an ENV project focused on stopping the illegal tiger trade. Agent Orange/Dioxin -------------- HANOI 00001258 003 OF 005 ¶10. (SBU) While debate continues over the possible human effects of exposure to dioxin, a contaminant in the wartime defoliant Agent Orange, recent environmental studies show that dioxin contamination is concentrated in approximately 20 "hotspots," mostly areas within former U.S. airbases where Agent Orange was stored, loaded and transferred. Areas subjected to heavy aerial spraying do not currently have soil concentrations considered hazardous. The United States and Vietnam have not reached agreement on the scope of possible health effects, with Vietnam continuing to argue that over three million handicapped can trace their disabilities to dioxin exposure. We do not believe that this figure can be supported by scientifically-sound data and analysis. Statements that describe every child born with a birth defect anywhere in Vietnam as a "victim of agent orange" are common and remain a favorite propaganda tool for persons opposed to closer U.S.-Vietnam relations. However, our engagement on this issue has accomplished much, in both transforming the tone of the dialogue and capacity building to address environmental issues and provide assistance for the disabled. ¶11. (SBU) Since 2001, the USG has spent over USD 2 million to initiate technical dialogues, scientific conferences on the effects of AO/dioxin, and fund a 4-year project to build the capacity of Vietnamese scientists to analyze soil samples collected from the Danang airport. The Joint Advisory Committee (JAC) for Agent Orange/dioxin, which brings together scientists and researchers from both governments to provide science-based advice to policy makers for potential environmental and health cooperation, held its third annual meeting in September, during which Vietnamese and U.S. members set up task forces to implement health and remediation recommendations. An EPA remediation expert, currently serving as an Embassy Science Fellow in Hanoi, is working with the remediation task force to develop a remediation work plan for Danang. USAID has started to implement a USD 3 million Congressional appropriation for "dioxin mitigation and health activities," with the recent announcement of USD 1 million in grants to three partner organizations to strengthen services for the disabled in Danang. We continue to work with the GVN, UNDP, Ford Foundation and other donors to form a multilateral coalition to environmental remediation of three priority hotspots in Danang, Hoa Binh and Phu Cat airfields. Biodiversity -------------- ¶12. (U) The Greater Mekong Sub-region harbors one of the world's most diverse ecosystems and supports millions of people who rely directly on forest and river habitats. The Asia Regional Biodiversity Conservation Program (ARBCP),supported by USAID, is a regional biodiversity conservation landscape program designed to conserve natural resources and biodiversity in Vietnam. With its implementing partners -- Winrock International and the World Conservation Union-IUCN, the United States aims to conserve the region's biodiversity through economic development methods that will promote livelihood security for the rural poor. This April, the U.S. Forest Service and the Vietnamese Forest Protection Department signed a Letter of Intent to increase cooperation in several areas, notably biodiversity conservation. In June, the U.S. Museum of Natural History and Vietnam's Institute of Biology and Creature began implementing a bio-diversity conservation project in three central Vietnamese provinces. The USAID-supported Responsible Asia Forest (RAFT) program recently started work in Vietnam to improve the quality and extent of sustainable management of forest resources and biodiversity. Balancing Environment and Economic Growth -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Vietnam's rapid economic growth has strained its ability to protect the environment. In particular, the GVN has not been able to control growing pollution, particularly from booming Export Processing Zones and Industrial Parks. Recently, local media has turned its focus onto this issue, highlighting several cases of egregious violations of Vietnamese pollution control laws. We have also seen growing concern about the environment from average Vietnamese, particularly the wealthier urbanized population, which now concerns itself with quality of life issues as well as economic well being. While the GVN has drafted an array of environmental laws, it lacks the ability (and perhaps the will) to enforce these provisions and lacks sufficient penalties to deter illegal behavior. Our counterparts in the Environmental Police Department and Vietnam Environmental Protection Agency frequently request assistance from legislative drafting to technical training to financial assistance. To date, U.S. support for these "brown" issues has been modest. We have identified the need to balance economic growth with environmental protection as perhaps the most important future ESTH issue in Vietnam and strive to document many of the areas in which U.S. assistance could make a difference. HANOI 00001258 004 OF 005 Science and Technology Cooperation -------------- ¶14. (U) In the eight years since the United States and Vietnam signed our bilateral Agreement on Scientific and Technical Cooperation, such cooperation has steadily increased. In February, you co-chaired the sixth U.S.-Vietnam Joint Commission Meeting, during which the two delegations reviewed the broad nature of ongoing collaborative efforts. As you will recall, the Vietnamese brought over 40 delegates to Washington, reflecting the importance which they attach to U.S.-Vietnamese efforts. Since the JCM, the two governments have moved forward in several areas, including road safety and nuclear cooperation. At the same time, the private sector and academic institutions continue to link up in a variety of areas. While Vietnam's scientific research and development capacities remain limited, the GVN recently formed the Vietnamese National Science Foundation and the local government in Ho Chi Minh City provides substantial funding for S&T activities. We also have seen a dramatic increase in Vietnamese college and graduate students traveling to study in the United States, many of whom (with GVN encouragement) focus on the sciences and engineering. Health Development, including HIV/AIDS -------------- ¶15. (U) Approximately eighty percent of all U.S. official development assistance to Vietnam focuses on health issues, and our cooperative efforts to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS and combat avian influenza (AI) are the hallmarks of our bilateral health relationship. In 2005, Vietnam became one of fifteen focus countries under the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. Led by the Ambassador and jointly planned and implemented by USAID, HHS/CDC, and DOD, the program focuses on prevention, care and treatment for those infected and strengthening of the health system in Vietnam. The program continues to successfully build local capacity to prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS and to provide care, treatment and support for an increasing proportion of the estimated 302,000 Vietnamese currently infected with HIV. As of April 2008, 89,605 individuals received counseling and testing for HIV/AIDS, while 45,736 individuals had been provided with HIV/AIDS palliative care. From an initial budget of USD 17.3 million, PEPFAR funding has grown to USD 88.5 million for FY 2008 with a cumulative total of 226.3 million since 2004. About 25 percent has gone directly to the Government of Vietnam (GVN). In FY 09 the USG will again receive approximately USD 88 million in PEPFAR funding aimed at preventing new infections, providing care to 110,000 persons, including orphans and vulnerable children, and supporting anti-Retroviral treatment for 22,000 patients. Avian Influenza (AI) -------------- ¶16. (U) USG AI-related assistance has focused on preventing a pandemic, including strengthening emergency preparedness, building veterinary laboratory capacity, animal vaccination campaigns, animal surveillance and response, and public awareness. In FY2008, the USG became the largest bilateral donor, surpassing investment by the Government of Japan, with contributions totaling USD 12.4 million (double the amount from FY2007). Since 2005, the USG has provided USD 34.6 million to counter the threat of avian influenza to Vietnam. U.S. efforts have made a difference in Vietnam's fight to contain highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and have contributed to Vietnam's overall efforts to improve health systems capacity. With international assistance, the GVN took quick action to contain AI, and has been rewarded with a notable drop in the number and intensity of animal outbreaks and human infections. Vietnam has moved from an emergency response phase (evident from late 2003 through the epidemic waves of 2006) into a crisis management phase. However, Vietnam now needs to develop a sustainable long-term strategy focusing on improved poultry management practices to minimize the risk of a pandemic. Though internal GVN communications difficulties sometimes delay notification to the international health community, and bureaucratic friction may slow sample sharing, our Vietnamese counterparts remain committed to the campaign. Other Health Issues -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Our health diplomacy program extends into many other areas, including assistance to combat other infectious diseases (including cholera, tuberculosis, malaria and dengue fever),road safety, and food safety. U.S. financial support is complemented by the provision of in-kind technical assistance as we seek to assist Vietnam in the challenging road of health sector reform, given the rapid pace of economic change and modernization. U.S. assistance, largely focused on targeted, disease-specific programs, has provided HANOI 00001258 005 OF 005 tangible benefits to the people of Vietnam. Yet, we need to continue these collaborative efforts, while assisting Vietnam to create a public health system responsive to the needs of its population. Increasingly, we try to focus on two principal challenges to health sector reform: insufficient human resource capacity and the insufficient pace and quality in implementing policies necessary to ensure the health of Vietnamese citizens. Economic Successes and Challenges -------------- ¶18. (SBU) After a decade of isolation and failed economic policies, Vietnam is determined to catch up with the Asian tigers. Vietnam's "doi moi" (renovation) program of economic reform, begun in 1986, has set the country on a successful market economy path, with an average growth rate of 7.5 percent over the past decade. A recent World Bank study described Vietnam's poverty reduction rate as the most significant in such a short period of time of any nation in history. The GVN focuses on exports and foreign direct investment in its drive to achieve middle-income status by 2010. ¶19. (U) The United States is currently Vietnam's largest export market and third largest overall trade partner. Total two-way trade in goods with the United States in 2007 was USD 12.53 billion, up 29 percent from 2006. One of the most positive stories from 2007 was the surge in U.S. exports to Vietnam which rose 73 percent from USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.9 billion. Driven by the technology industry, the United States is Vietnam's seventh largest investor, with USD 2.6 billion in registered FDI since 1988, and USD 2 billion more in "U.S.-related investment." ¶20. (SBU) While the great majority of experts consider Vietnam's long-term economic prospects to be bright, short-term macroeconomic imbalances are worrying investors. Vietnam's current turmoil is rooted in high inflation (27 percent year-on-year),the large current account deficit, and inefficient allocation of resources, which is particularly obvious in the disproportionate amount of state resources devoted to powerful State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). Economic instability threatens many of the tentative steps the GVN has taken to address environmental issues or to fund science and technology research and development. What You Can Expect -------------- ¶21. (SBU) You can expect your interlocutors not only to be articulate and well informed, but also to actively seek increased bilateral cooperation, particularly in the form of U.S. assistance. You may also hear some of your hosts (or, more likely, the press) raise Agent Orange/dioxin, whether or not the subject fits within the bounds of the scheduled discussion. While lingering suspicions still exist among conservatives in leadership about the development of closer ties with the United States, such concerns rarely enter the calculus of cooperation on environment, science, technology and health issues. We expect press interest in your visit with strong turnout at any press events and at the opening of the DRAGON Institute in Can Tho. ¶22. (SBU) We look forward to your visit and stand ready to do everything we can to make your time in Vietnam as productive as possible. MICHALAK