U.S.-VIETNAM POLICY PLANNING TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 001243 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR EAP/MLS (BLACKSHAW),S/P (GREEN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON ETRD EFIN VM SUBJECT: U.S.-VIETNAM POLICY PLANNING TALKS HANOI 00001243 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Ambassador Michael Michalak. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Meeting for the inaugural round of U.S.-Vietnam policy planning discussions, S/P Director David Gordon and the MFA's DG for Policy Planning, Bui Thanh Son, engaged in a candid, cordial, and at times freewheeling exchange of views on the implications of the global financial crisis; food, energy security, and climate change; China's rise; and regional institutions. The Vietnamese side, led by DG Son with frequent contributions from his colleague from the Vietnamese Diplomatic Academy, was well-briefed and articulate on a range of topics. These talks, as well as subsequent discussions with VFM Pham Binh Minh and the State Bank of Vietnam (septel), showcased the Vietnam government's eagerness to be considered a responsible, thoughtful actor on regional and transnational issues. END SUMMARY. Financial Crisis -- New Alignments, but U.S. Still Key -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The first annual round of U.S.-Vietnam policy planning discussions began October 31 with a spirited, open exchange about the implications of the global financial crisis. S/P Director David Gordon emphasized that the current turmoil -- which began with sub-prime mortgages, but quickly spread throughout the international financial system -- had decisively refuted notions of economic "decoupling." Financial systems around the globe are hurting, he stressed; solutions must likewise be broad-based and international. In taking the lead in coordinating a global response to a global crisis, the United States would be emphasizing three principles: 1) continued commitment to free trade, open economies, and completing Doha; 2) an understanding that poorer countries should not bear a disproportionate burden; and 3) a need to restore confidence in the ability of international markets to regain balance and ensure continued growth. ¶3. (SBU) MFA Policy Planning DG Bui Thanh Son and his counterpart from the MFA Diplomatic Academy, Dang Dinh Quy sought to depict the financial turbulence as symptomatic of a broader decline in U.S. economic and financial clout. DG Son acknowledged that as the world's leading economy, the United States would continue to play a central role in fashioning a solution to the credit crisis. At the same time, he insisted that trust in the U.S.-led financial system, and in the U.S. Dollar, had been seriously eroded. What was likely to emerge from the present crisis, DG Son asserted, was a "multi-polarization" of the international financial system, with Asian economies diversifying their foreign exchange holdings and institutions such as the Chang Mai Initiative and groupings such as the G20 increasingly supplanting the IMF, World Bank, and G8. In such a world, the United States would be prominent, but not necessarily predominant, as "BRIC" economies China, India, and Brazil play an increasingly large role. Com menting on U.S. moves to allay the financial crisis, Quy offered the playfully provocative comment that Vietnam welcomed the U.S. administration's interest in "socialist" economic intervention. ¶4. (SBU) The Ambassador suggested that for all the theoretical talk about a realignment of the financial system, it was unclear what this would actually mean in practice. While operating in a multi-polar world, the United States would for the foreseeable future remain the central player. Both the Ambassador and Director Gordon noted that the dollar had actually strengthened in recent days as the crisis deepened. Pakistan and Iceland had turned not to new mechanisms, but to the IMF, just as it was the U.S. Treasury that had engineered a swap agreement to stabilize the Korean Won. Similarly, while China and India's rise was undeniable, it was the United States that had called the G20 together to begin discussions on regenerating consensus around a reformed international financial system. Far from "socialist," these interventions represent prudent measures to reinforce to the international capitalist system and were firmly based on market-oriented principles. Food, Fuel, and Climate Change -------------- HANOI 00001243 002.2 OF 004 ¶5. (SBU) Leading the discussion on "non-traditional" security threats, Director Gordon noted that spikes in energy and food prices were symptomatic of a broader, positive development: the dramatic growth of a global middle class and the lifting of hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. While China and India were the most prominent exemplars, Vietnam was also part of this trend. The economic growth that has made this massive improvement in living conditions possible has also generated its own set of problems, Dr. Gordon stated. Both he and the Ambassador emphasized that recent declines in commodity prices were unlikely to be sustained. The Ambassador noted that as a major producer of rice, Vietnam -- together with Brazil and the United States -- should be prepared to meet the challenges of increased worldwide demand for food. ¶6. (SBU) The same dynamics that affect energy and food demand are directly related to another significant challenge: climate change. Not only does the broadening of economic growth contribute to global warming, climate change threatens global food supply. The Ambassador pointed out that a half-meter increase in sea levels would cut the Mekong Delta's rice productivity in half. Taken together, these forces make the search for alternate energy sources all the more essential, the U.S. side stated. In contemplating the intersection of climate change, energy security, and economic growth, two principles must be considered, Director Gordon stressed: 1) the importance of innovation, including efforts to develop new resources and boost energy efficiency, and 2) a strong, shared commitment to adaptation and mitigation. In implementing measures to combat global warming, the international community must further take steps to ensure that prospects for sustained economic growth in the developing world -- key to redu cing poverty -- not be sacrificed. ¶7. (SBU) DG Son and Quy agreed that these were serious issues, which would have a major impact on Vietnam. The effects would not necessarily be all negative: as a net exporter of rice, Vietnam was in a position to help dampen regional price shocks; Vietnam could also become self-reliant in terms of energy, at least in the medium term as it develops a domestic refining capacity. Climate change presents a significant challenge, however, whose effects are already being felt, DG Son noted. Joking -- though only in part -- DG Son said that the persistently heavy rains on the day of the talks could likely be attributed to global warming. More generally, Vietnam faced real problems with flooding in low-land areas and increased salinity in the Mekong Delta area. China, Russia -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In a revealing segue, Quy commented that increased demand and rising commodity prices have major security implications for Vietnam, as "large countries" -- a clear allusion to China -- become more aggressive in securing energy supplies. Echoing Quy's remarks, DG Son noted that China's construction of dams on the upper Mekong had already begun to affect water levels and flow, and that this threatened to exacerbate some of the negative consequences of climate change. ¶9. (C) Later in the discussion, Quy returned more explicitly to the question of disputed maritime claims in the South China Sea, urging the United States to use ExxonMobil as a "test case" to push the Chinese. Director Gordon and the Ambassador acknowledged Vietnam's concerns, but said that it was extremely unlikely that the United States would take a more aggressive posture than Vietnam in supporting Vietnam's territorial claims. Where is ASEAN in all of this, the Ambassador asked rhetorically? Warming to his theme, Quy warned the United States not to be naive in its dealings with China. After a rather disjointed presentation on Vietnam's fears of "economic invasion," Quy remarked, somewhat ominously, that China knows more about the United States than the United States does about China. ¶10. (SBU) Director Gordon and S/P Member James Green assured the Vietnamese that U.S. China policy was not at all naive, and in fact was largely consistent with Vietnam's own stated approach. U.S. engagement with China HANOI 00001243 003.2 OF 004 over the past thirty years has consistently been pursued within the context of an overall Asia policy that has sought, successfully, to strengthen old alliances while developing new friendships, such as with Vietnam. The accomplishment over the past eight years has been to make the terms of this engagement more explicit. As a result, not only have tensions over Taiwan been contained, but the United States and the countries of Northeast Asia have been able to work as constructively with China on the issue of Korean denuclearization through the Six-Party Process. At the same time, the United States has endeavored to encourage China to take a less zero-sum, mercantilist approach to energy policy and to be more transparent in its military modernization. ¶11. (C) Turning to Russia, Director Gordon stated that while there was little prospect of a return to the Cold War, the United States had watched with growing concern the rise of bellicose rhetoric emanating from Moscow, followed by aggressive actions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Green noted that one positive effect of recently lower energy prices has been a muting of Russia's ambitions. DG Son agreed that Russia's "recovery" as a great power was still uncertain, and that its economic growth remained far too reliant on oil. Regional Integration -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Speaking of the region as a whole, DG Son observed that potential "hot spots" such as North Korea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea aside, Asia remained quite stable and prosperous. ASEAN had greatly contributed to this stability, DG Son argued, and the body plays a central role in Vietnam's approach to regional issues. DG Son expressed optimism that all ten members would ratify the ASEAN Charter by early 2009. ASEAN-based bodies such as ARF, ASEAN 1, ASEAN 2 have also been of value, adding to the region's "soft power" and fostering cooperation on energy, finance, education, Avian Influenza, and disaster response. DG Son said that he understood there was continuing discussion in the United States about the merits of the East Asian Summit, but commented that from Vietnam's perspective, the grouping represented another useful forum for exchanging views. ¶13. (SBU) The two sides agreed that APEC was an extremely useful mechanism for bringing the United States into closer cooperation with its Asian partners. The Ambassador praised ASEAN, noting that it had repeatedly proven itself as a community-building institution. On the economic side, however, APEC has been much more valuable. DG Son said that Vietnam is seriously considering participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); the Ambassador said that he would not be surprised if the TPP were to morph into a larger, more robust free trade area. Green noted that for all the emphasis on multilateral engagement, the United States would continue to give pride of place to its bilateral relationships. ¶14. (SBU) COMMENT: As a first round of discussions, the talks were highly successful. Well-briefed and well-spoken -- at times, playfully provocative -- the Vietnamese delegation displayed remarkable fluency on a range of issues. In these and subsequent meetings with VFM Pham Binh Minh and State Bank Foreign Exchange Department Director, Nguyen Quang Huy, (septel) the Vietnamese showed an eagerness to be taken seriously. END COMMENT. ¶15. (U) Participants: U.S. S/P Director David Gordon Ambassador Michalak S/P Member James Green Deputy PolCouns Mike Goldman Vietnam AFM Bui Thanh Son, DG MFA Policy Planning Dan Dinh Quy, DG, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Vu Dang Dung, DGG, MFA Americas Department Do Hung Viet, Assistant Director, MFA IO Department Nguyen Thanh Hai, Assistant Director, Policy Planning HANOI 00001243 004.2 OF 004 ¶16. (U) This cable was cleared by S/P. MICHALAK MICHALAK