VIETNAMESE THINK-TANK PUSHES CHANGE, RANKLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001102

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI VM
SUBJECT: VIETNAMESE THINK-TANK PUSHES CHANGE, RANKLES
OFFICIALDOM

REF: HANOI 563

HANOI 00001102 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Pol Counselor Brian Aggeler for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) An independent institute bringing together
well-connected Vietnamese experts is emerging as an
influential voice of reform, calling for political
liberalization and increased economic efficiency with a
frankness rare in this one-party state. According to the
President of the Institute for Development Studies (IDS),
some top Government of Vietnam (GVN) officials harbor
ill-will toward IDS because its scholars have publicly
criticized GVN policies, corruption and the arrest of two
journalists. IDS' nine founding members are well-known for
their writings and their experiences advising top GVN
leaders. IDS operates on a firm legal basis and aims to
promote the rights of the people: free speech, free assembly,
equality before the law and the right to protest. IDS
scholars have cited negative public reaction to corruption
scandals in arguing that the GVN should listen to their
opinions. IDS scholars' courage, high-profiles and
dedication to promoting Vietnam's development mean they will
continue to keep GVN leaders on their toes. End Summary.


2. (C) On September 12, President of the Institute for
Development Studies (IDS) Nguyen Quang A told Poloff that
some top Government of Vietnam (GVN) leaders are "hostile" to
the institute because its scholars have publicly criticized
GVN land policies and corruption and suggested that the GVN's
arrest of two journalists and their police source for reports
on the PMU-18 scandal (Ref) was a "mistake." Quang A relayed
that his Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) contacts told him
that the 14-member Politburo on two separate occasions
discussed how to deal with IDS and that General Secretary
Nong Duc Manh and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung privately
voiced frustration about the institute's work.


3. (C) Civil society expert Nguyen Manh Cuong separately told
us that IDS has organized seminars that have drawn numerous
other Vietnamese social and development organization
representatives. Participants in these seminars were quite
vocal in their criticism of the GVN, which angered top
leaders focused on preserving stability, Cuong said.

Operating on Firm Legal Grounds
--------------


4. (C) Despite efforts by some top GVN leaders to get IDS to
self-dissolve, the institute operates on firm legal
grounding, Quang A emphasized. A group of academic experts
established the institute in late 2007 with a license from
the Hanoi Department of Science and Technology, he said.
Civil society expert Cuong told us that the nine founding
members took advantage of a 2004 decree that makes it
relatively easy for Vietnamese to form a science and
technology organization and used general language about IDS's
proposed activities in the application.


5. (C) The nine founding members are well-known academics who
in prior careers advised top CPV leaders, which also helped
IDS get up and running, Cuong explained. An adviser to
communist Vietnam's first premier Phan Van Dong, advisers to
former Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet, an adviser to the General
Secretary who ushered in the "doi moi" reforms and an adviser
to former Prime Minister Phan Van Khai are among these nine
founding members. In addition, before he passed away earlier
this year, former PM Kiet gave moral support to the
Institute, providing cover for its activities.


6. (C) Another prominent IDS scholar told us separately that
IDS seeks to promote the rights of the people: free speech,
free assembly, equality before the law and the right to
protest. For his part, Quang A said IDS experts have
recommended how to improve the operational effectiveness of
state-owned enterprises and state bodies. IDS also has
analyzed protests over land and corruption, concluding that
the basic problem is one of lack of property rights, Quang A
added.

Financially Independent
--------------


7. (C) IDS has solid financial support from local businessmen
and has started to reach out to foreign entities and even
wealthy overseas Vietnamese ("Viet Khieu") for funding, Quang
A relayed. The main consumers of IDS research are government
entities and international development institutions, he said.
Government is the "hardware" and IDS provides the

HANOI 00001102 002.2 OF 002


"software," he stated.

What Is Wrong With "Peaceful Evolution?"
--------------


8. (C) Because some senior Party leaders are not happy with
the institute's work, IDS scholars lately have been more
careful in their writings and statements, Quang A said. They
have repeatedly assured GVN leaders that IDS does not seek to
"throw them out," he stated. IDS scholars have cited the
negative public reaction to corruption scandals and the
journalist arrests in arguing that it is in GVN leaders'
interest to listen to IDS scholars' advice, Quang A stated.
He added that IDS' message is simple: "We are proud
Vietnamese who want to help the GVN govern more effectively."


9. (C) IDS stands ready to do contract research for
non-Vietnamese government entities, Quang A continued. When
asked if this type of work could feed CPV leaders'
perceptions that IDS is working with the West to subvert the
CPV through "peaceful evolution," the IDS President
responded, "What is wrong with peaceful evolution?" Now, the
poor have no voice and Vietnam faces many problems, he said.
Vietnam needs change, but this change must be gradual and
peaceful, he added. IDS's role is to help bring this change
about, he concluded.

Comment: Keeping GVN Leaders on Their Toes
--------------


10. (C) In 2005, an IDS member's advice to the Politburo
leaked to the media; he reportedly said at that time that the
"weakest point of the system is the regime of one-party rule,
which is authoritarian and undemocratic." This scholar has
also privately suggested to us that the USG and other
countries provide -- but not "impose" -- a "menu" on
gradually reforming Vietnam's communist political system. We
have no indications top leaders agree with IDS's goals and
many of them seem to want the institute closed. However,
IDS's ability to criticize GVN policies speaks to some
political maturity in Vietnam. Because of their courage,
high-profiles and dedication to promoting Vietnam's
development, IDS will continue to keep GVN leaders on their
toes. End Comment.


11. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen Ho Chi Minh
City.
MICHALAK