VIETNAMESE THINK-TANK PUSHES CHANGE, RANKLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001102 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI VM SUBJECT: VIETNAMESE THINK-TANK PUSHES CHANGE, RANKLES OFFICIALDOM REF: HANOI 563 HANOI 00001102 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol Counselor Brian Aggeler for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) An independent institute bringing together well-connected Vietnamese experts is emerging as an influential voice of reform, calling for political liberalization and increased economic efficiency with a frankness rare in this one-party state. According to the President of the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), some top Government of Vietnam (GVN) officials harbor ill-will toward IDS because its scholars have publicly criticized GVN policies, corruption and the arrest of two journalists. IDS' nine founding members are well-known for their writings and their experiences advising top GVN leaders. IDS operates on a firm legal basis and aims to promote the rights of the people: free speech, free assembly, equality before the law and the right to protest. IDS scholars have cited negative public reaction to corruption scandals in arguing that the GVN should listen to their opinions. IDS scholars' courage, high-profiles and dedication to promoting Vietnam's development mean they will continue to keep GVN leaders on their toes. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On September 12, President of the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) Nguyen Quang A told Poloff that some top Government of Vietnam (GVN) leaders are "hostile" to the institute because its scholars have publicly criticized GVN land policies and corruption and suggested that the GVN's arrest of two journalists and their police source for reports on the PMU-18 scandal (Ref) was a "mistake." Quang A relayed that his Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) contacts told him that the 14-member Politburo on two separate occasions discussed how to deal with IDS and that General Secretary Nong Duc Manh and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung privately voiced frustration about the institute's work. ¶3. (C) Civil society expert Nguyen Manh Cuong separately told us that IDS has organized seminars that have drawn numerous other Vietnamese social and development organization representatives. Participants in these seminars were quite vocal in their criticism of the GVN, which angered top leaders focused on preserving stability, Cuong said. Operating on Firm Legal Grounds -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite efforts by some top GVN leaders to get IDS to self-dissolve, the institute operates on firm legal grounding, Quang A emphasized. A group of academic experts established the institute in late 2007 with a license from the Hanoi Department of Science and Technology, he said. Civil society expert Cuong told us that the nine founding members took advantage of a 2004 decree that makes it relatively easy for Vietnamese to form a science and technology organization and used general language about IDS's proposed activities in the application. ¶5. (C) The nine founding members are well-known academics who in prior careers advised top CPV leaders, which also helped IDS get up and running, Cuong explained. An adviser to communist Vietnam's first premier Phan Van Dong, advisers to former Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet, an adviser to the General Secretary who ushered in the "doi moi" reforms and an adviser to former Prime Minister Phan Van Khai are among these nine founding members. In addition, before he passed away earlier this year, former PM Kiet gave moral support to the Institute, providing cover for its activities. ¶6. (C) Another prominent IDS scholar told us separately that IDS seeks to promote the rights of the people: free speech, free assembly, equality before the law and the right to protest. For his part, Quang A said IDS experts have recommended how to improve the operational effectiveness of state-owned enterprises and state bodies. IDS also has analyzed protests over land and corruption, concluding that the basic problem is one of lack of property rights, Quang A added. Financially Independent -------------- ¶7. (C) IDS has solid financial support from local businessmen and has started to reach out to foreign entities and even wealthy overseas Vietnamese ("Viet Khieu") for funding, Quang A relayed. The main consumers of IDS research are government entities and international development institutions, he said. Government is the "hardware" and IDS provides the HANOI 00001102 002.2 OF 002 "software," he stated. What Is Wrong With "Peaceful Evolution?" -------------- ¶8. (C) Because some senior Party leaders are not happy with the institute's work, IDS scholars lately have been more careful in their writings and statements, Quang A said. They have repeatedly assured GVN leaders that IDS does not seek to "throw them out," he stated. IDS scholars have cited the negative public reaction to corruption scandals and the journalist arrests in arguing that it is in GVN leaders' interest to listen to IDS scholars' advice, Quang A stated. He added that IDS' message is simple: "We are proud Vietnamese who want to help the GVN govern more effectively." ¶9. (C) IDS stands ready to do contract research for non-Vietnamese government entities, Quang A continued. When asked if this type of work could feed CPV leaders' perceptions that IDS is working with the West to subvert the CPV through "peaceful evolution," the IDS President responded, "What is wrong with peaceful evolution?" Now, the poor have no voice and Vietnam faces many problems, he said. Vietnam needs change, but this change must be gradual and peaceful, he added. IDS's role is to help bring this change about, he concluded. Comment: Keeping GVN Leaders on Their Toes -------------- ¶10. (C) In 2005, an IDS member's advice to the Politburo leaked to the media; he reportedly said at that time that the "weakest point of the system is the regime of one-party rule, which is authoritarian and undemocratic." This scholar has also privately suggested to us that the USG and other countries provide -- but not "impose" -- a "menu" on gradually reforming Vietnam's communist political system. We have no indications top leaders agree with IDS's goals and many of them seem to want the institute closed. However, IDS's ability to criticize GVN policies speaks to some political maturity in Vietnam. Because of their courage, high-profiles and dedication to promoting Vietnam's development, IDS will continue to keep GVN leaders on their toes. End Comment. ¶11. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen Ho Chi Minh City. MICHALAK