FORMER PSC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE VITERI PLOTS HER

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: FORMER PSC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE VITERI PLOTS HER
RETURN

REF: A. REF: A) 2007 GUAYAQUIL 460


B. B) GUAYAQUIL 25

C. C) 2006 GUAYAQUIL 1050

Classified By: Consul General Douglas Griffiths for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Social Christian Party (PSC)
presidential candidate Cynthia Viteri will reenter the
political arena this year through a new center-right
movement. Viteri is soliciting funds, talking to potential
allies and recruiting candidates in provinces on the coast
and in the southern highlands. With few other viable
candidates, Viteri immediately makes the short list of
politicians who have enough name recognition to compete in a
national campaign. However, her PSC past and poor track
record in the last elections make it unlikely that she could
beat the popular president if elections are held following
the Constituent Assembly. The politically astute Viteri will
therefore probably focus on securing a seat in congress and
positioning herself for a presidential campaign when her
chances are better. END SUMMARY.

FORMER PSC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE VITERI BACK IN POLITICS
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2. (C) After quitting the Social Christian Party (PSC) in
early 2007 (Ref A),former presidential candidate Cynthia
Viteri has emerged from her self-imposed exile with a new
political movement and an eye on the elections that are
likely to follow the Constituent Assembly. Capitalizing on
the slogan of Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot's successful
January 24 rally, "Guayaquil on the March" (Ref B),she has
named her new movement "Ecuador on the March" and is
recruiting potential candidates in the areas where she
herself was strongest as a candidate: the coast and the
southern highlands. "We have identified ten or eleven
provinces (out of 24 total) in which we will groom
candidates," she explained. Viteri had been waiting to see
how the political landscape developed before returning to the
arena (Ref A). "I was tired of waiting and decided that the
time was right to get back in the game," she told Poloff.


3. (SBU) A protege of former President and Guayaquil Mayor
Leon Febres-Cordero, Viteri is a charismatic and
media-friendly former beauty queen, attorney and journalist.
After Viteri served in a variety of public relations jobs
within the PSC, Febres-Cordero tapped her as the party's 2006
presidential candidate. She polled strongly early in the
campaign and appeared to be a good bet to finish in the top
two and land in the runoff round. However, when
Febres-Cordero pulled his financial support in order to back
banana magnate Alvaro Noboa's campaign, Viteri plummeted in
the polls, finishing a disappointing fifth (Ref C). Despite
her bitterness over the election results, she agreed to
become the party's second vice president in early 2007,
vowing to reform what had become a discredited organization.
Frustration over the PSC's reluctance to pursue grassroots
change led her to quit the party shortly thereafter.

NEW PARTY SEEKING ALLIANCES, FUNDS & SEATS IN NEW CONGRESS
--------------


4. (C) According to Viteri, her new movement is shopping for
candidates and funds for the congressional elections likely
to take place later this year. While eager to make Ecuador
on the March a force in the new congress, she admitted that
she was having some difficulty identifying good potential
candidates. "I have been looking at a number of former
congressmen, such as Jorge Cevallos (the former Congressional
President from PRIAN),Manuel Gonzalez (Democratic Left (ID))
and Ramses Torres (Pachakutik)," she told Poloff. "The
problem is that congress has such a bad reputation. On the
other hand, new faces can be very hard to get elected."
Viteri also mentioned that her sister Natalie, a
congresswoman who lost her seat in a controversial move by
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal in early 2007, would run as a
candidate in Guayas province. In addition, Ecuador on the
March is exploring alliances with other like-minded,
center-right opposition parties like Humberto Mata's Ecuador
Force and Eduardo Maruri's A New Option (UNO). However,
Viteri ruled out any partnership with PRIAN. "Noboa is just
too difficult to work with," she told Poloff.

VITERI UNDECIDED WHETHER TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OR CONGRESS
--------------


5. (C) Viteri herself is keen to secure an office in 2008

and plans to run either for president or for a national
congressional seat. "It really depends on which elections
are held this year," she explained. Her preference at this
point would be congress, as she feels that Correa is still
too popular to challenge. However, she told the Consul
General that Correa's success and the current U.S. electoral
campaign demonstrate that "charisma and money can forge an
unbeatable alliance in a short period of time." She
emphatically denied any interest in running against incumbent
Jaime Nebot for mayor of Guayaquil. Although the two were
members of rival factions within the PSC, they maintain a
cordial relationship, and Viteri respects Nebot's strength in
Guayaquil enough to stay out of that race.

SOME CHARISMA BUT LOTS OF BAGGAGE
--------------


6. (C) COMMENT: Many political observers here expect a quick
round of congressional and presidential elections later this
year if the new constitution being drafted by the Constituent
Assembly is approved. With Nebot reluctant to step forward
as a national leader, Noboa discredited and harassed by the
Correa government and the Gutierrez brothers under similar
scrutiny, the door is open for Viteri, Mata, Maruri or
another outsider to assume the mantle of "opposition leader".
Viteri is media-friendly, but the 2007 elections
demonstrated that she has limited appeal outside of the
coast. She also may be fatally tainted by her past
association with the PSC and thus an easy target for Correa
on the campaign trail. She rightly recognizes that to launch
a national campaign she would need a backer with deep
pockets. With this in mind, she will probably choose to
focus on capturing a seat and a small bloc in the new
congress to position herself for a subsequent presidential
run.

GRIFFITHS