OPPOSITION TO CONSTITUTION STRUGGLES FOR MESSAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000233

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TO CONSTITUTION STRUGGLES FOR MESSAGE
AND RELEVANCE

REF: A. QUITO 616

B. QUITO 409

C. GUAYAQUIL 158

D. QUITO 477

E. GUAYAQUIL 202

F. QUITO 732

Classified By: Consul General Douglas Griffiths for reason 1.4.(D)


1. (SBU) Summary. In the final days of the campaign for
approval of the draft constitution, the opposition has yet to
find a coherent or unified theme. The Catholic Church and
disparate evangelical Christian pastors have led the most
visible campaign against the new constitution, claiming that
it would weaken families and legalize abortion. In addition,
Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot has campaigned actively against
the draft constitution. His enormous popularity in Guayaquil
and his warnings that the new constitution would erode the
city,s treasured autonomy and imperil its decade-long
renaissance mean that the "yes" vote will likely fail to
carry Ecuador,s largest city. However neither religious
leaders nor Mayor Nebot have had much traction in convincing
the rest of the country to vote against the draft
constitution. President Correa has successfully
outmaneuvered and intimidated the traditional parties and
political figures, who have largely abstained from the
campaign. Most importantly, opponents of the Constitution
have failed to craft a message that would lead voters to vote
against the draft constitution. See Quito's companion piece
(Septel) on the "yes" vote. End summary.

Leaders of the "No"
--------------


2. (C) Mayor of Guayaquil Jaime Nebot (PSC),continues to be
the most visible leader of the "No" campaign. On September
8, Nebot announced that if the "Yes" won in the city of
Guayaquil, he would not run for reelection for mayor. He
explained that without a strong opposition mandate from his
constituents, he would not want constantly to battle the
central government to receive benefits and resources for the
city. President Correa clearly recognizes Nebot as his most
formidable opponent. Correa has campaigned weekly in
Guayaquil, repeatedly attacking what he considers to be
Nebot,s failure to address the needs of the poor in
Guayaquil. Nebot, too, has been in full campaign mode for
the past month, visiting every neighborhood in Guayaquil, and
underscoring how the municipality has delivered services
where the national government has failed. Nebot told the CG
that the draft constitution represents a "clear and present
danger to Guayaquil, its autonomy and the free market system
in Ecuador." While he is campaigning aggressively in the
final week of the campaign, Nebot assured the CG that the
"Yes" vote would not win in the city of Guayaquil.
However, Nebot,s popularity does not stretch far outside of
the city of Guayaquil, especially his emphasis on municipal
autonomy.


3. (C) Ex president Lucio Gutierrez of the Patriotic Society
Party (PSP) and his brother, party leader Gilmar Gutierrez,
have been traveling around the country urging voters to vote
"No." They have led the most organized opposition campaign
on the referendum, with a focus on rural areas where they are
directly confronting PAIS efforts. The Gutierrez brothers
have managed to retain support in rural areas, but the
President has been aggressively showcasing government public
work programs in many PSP strongholds. Correa has also
directed virulent personal attacks against Lucio Gutierrez,
indicating that he does not take Gutierrez lightly.
Speaking to POLCOUNS in the last days of the campaign, Gilmar
Gutierrez implicitly recognized that PSP was fighting a
losing battle, saying PSP hoped to reduce the margin of the
"yes" win. Center left former Vice President Leon Roldos has
also been a thorn in the side of government efforts to rally
support for the Constitution. Roldos, an ex-Assembly member
under the Red Etica y Democracia, or RED movement, has filed
a formal complaint that the referendum is invalid as the text
of the constitution was changed at the last minute without
the approval of the Constituent Assembly. In private
meetings with us, Roldos has vehemently criticized the
constitution-drafting process as completely controlled by the
President and his advisors. Roldos fears that the draft
constitution and the transition documents will give the
President far too much power. While Roldos is widely
respected, the rather technical nature of his accusations has
failed to engage the electorate.

Traditional Political Leaders Invisible

--------------


4. (C) Neither of the traditionally strong Coastal parties,
the Social Christian Party (PSC) and Partido Renovador
Institucional Accion Nacional (PRIAN),has campaigned against
the constitution. The PSC has not even announced a public
position for or against the document. PRIAN,s Constituent
Assembly (CA) members are campaigning against the draft
constitution, but party leader and ex presidential candidate,
Alvaro Noboa, has been almost invisible during the campaign.
In fact, he only returned from his summer holidays in the
Hamptons on September 11. Humberto Mata, the feisty leader
of the Fuerza Ecuador, or Ecuador Strength movement, was a
fierce critic of President Correa during the campaign for the
Constituent Assembly. Mata told the CG that he was sitting
out the referendum campaign as it was futile to fight against
the "unlimited power and money of the President." Cynthia
Viteri, former presidential candidate for PSC, explained that
she is now working at a grassroots level, door-to-door to
explain why one should vote "No". She has convoked hundreds
of women in Guayaquil to support the "No" on various issues,
such as centralism, abortion, health, and gay marriage.
Viteri said she does not want to be publicly recognized as a
party talking head because any ties to a party at this point
would be the death knell for the "No" campaign. PSC leader
Pascual del Chioppa told the CG that he would not publicly
comment on the referendum for two reasons. First, the PSC is
so discredited that campaigning for the no vote would be a
"Christmas present for Correa." Secondly, he said that his
American business partners had asked him to abstain from
campaigning.

Limited Funding for "No" campaigns
--------------


5. (C) Activists who are willing to step forward to campaign
against the referendum repeatedly complain about the lack of
funding and the "climate of fear" among the business
community. Pacho Harb, PSC Assembly member, and deposed
member of Congress, told the Consul General that the
"freedom" wing of Ecuadorian politics (need to explain what
the "freedom" wing means) was almost dead. Back in July,
Harb was making the rounds looking for funding to campaign
against the Constituent Assembly for what he perceived as an
attack on liberties in Ecuador. For one month, Harb funded
ads in the newspapers and radio decrying the government and
the new constitution. Unable to raise additional funds for
his campaign, Harb abandoned the media effort in August.
Opposition members of the Constituent Assembly, NGOs and
student leaders have shared similar complaints that they have
been unable to raise funds. A number of them told us that
they themselves or potential donors have been silenced by
fear of investigation by local tax authorities (the SRI)
and/or the fallout from the government,s seizures of the
Isaias family holdings (Ref A). Diana Acosta and Rosanna
Querolo, former assembly members who left President Correa,s
party Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement, stated
that since their departure over ideological differences with
PAIS, they have both been investigated by SRI for possible
tax charges. Jorge Fadul, a PSC assembly member from Machala
said that two weeks after speaking against the
sub-contracting issue in the Assembly in February, SRI opened
an investigation in his company over not declaring $ 275,000
USD (Ref B). He noted that the accusation was petty given
that his company makes $ 25 million USD a year, but that it
is more the effort of trying to resolve the case that drains
him of resources. Another PSC assembly member from Manabi
province, Leonardo Viteri, said that he too, has been hounded
by the SRI for value added tax issues in his private medical
practice. In late July, Mayor of Machala Carlos Falquez's
special advisor, Roger Porras, informed Pol/econoff that he
expected Falquez to be charged with tax evasion by the
Attorney General as retaliation for their support of the
"No" (Ref C). Eduardo Maruri, an Assembly member for the
center-right UNO movement told the CG that the SRI opened
investigations on both his advertising agency and the
Barcelona Soccer Club (Maruri is the current President) the
day before the election campaign began. Maria Gloria
Alarcon, President of the Guayaquil Chamber of Commerce,
decided to discontinue the Chamber,s "No" campaign after
the government took over her businesses for links to the
fugitive Isaias brothers. Indeed, the director of the Guayas
Province tax office told the CG last year that he would be
aggressively pursuing local businesses for failure to comply
with the complex tax code. We cannot say whether the SRI
actions equal intimidation or compliance enforcement efforts
in a culture where tax evasion is rampant. However, deep
pockets in the Coast are feeling the heat, and have been

unwilling to fund the "No" campaign.

Campaign to Vote Null
--------------


6. (C) Likewise, the movement to vote null has failed to gain
steam. Proponents of the null vote pitch it as both a
rejection of the previous corrupt and flawed system, and
rejection of Correa and the new constitution. Jimmy Jairala,
ex-Congressman for the Partido Roldocista Ecuador, or PRE,
and leading figure of the "Nulo" campaign has told us that
a "null" vote is essentially a "no" vote, as election rules
dictate that the Constitution needs a majority of "yes"
voted to pass. He underscored that the only hope for the
opposition is to split up and offer various reasons for a
"no" because otherwise Correa will attack them as a whole and
as a part of the "partidocracia", or old party. Some members
of the leftist party, Izquierda Democratica, or ID are also
supporting the "null" vote. Diego Monsalve Vintimilla, a
former ID congress person told Pol/econoff that the ID is
most concerned about the concentration of executive powers
and fear what any future presidents may do with these powers
as outlined in the constitution. However, the decision to
support the null vote has deeply divided the party, forcing
the party congress to step back from its original position
and allow members to vote however they wished on the
referendum. Cuenca, the former ID strong-hold in the
southern Andes, is expected overwhelmingly to support the
opposition.

Guayaquil's Central Role in the Opposition
--------------


7. (SBU) Guayaquil continues to be the geographic center of
the opposition movement. Following the violent protests at
Universidad Catolica (Ref E),student movements have
flourished in support of the "No". The individual students
who were signaled out by the Correa government,s public
service announcements explaining its version of the events
have joined with other students in a grass-roots effort to
protest what it believes is the Correa government,s
increasing authoritarianism and clamping down of freedom of
expression. Pol/econoff met with the student leaders, who
range from 19-22 years old, and are all law students at the
Universidad Catolica. Cesar Coronel and Francisco Icaza
presented a complaint to the Quito office of the Organization
of American States, but stated it was returned back to them
for lack of serious proof. Besides the student movements,
the church, comprised of the Roman Catholic Church under its
Episcopal Conference, along with some evangelical leaders,
have continued to maintain a stance against the referendum
(Ref F). On September 14, the Catholic Church in Guayaquil
organized outdoor masses in the street, which convoked more
than 4000. While the organizers claimed it was not
political, this was a clear message of support for the "No."


8. (C) The only two groups visibly campaigning for the "no"
vote in Ecuador's highlands region are the Christian
Democrats Union (UDC),led by Diego Ordonez, and the National
Democratic Agreement, a small NGO under Cesar Montufar.
Their campaign approach, focusing on balance of powers and
other issues that concern well-educated elites, and their
small size, minimizes their impact.

Hard to Fight Against Change
--------------


9. (C) Comment: The bottom line is the "no" campaign has
been unable to articulate a message to compete against the
President,s charismatic call for approval of the referendum.
Correa has ably captured the aspirations of the Ecuadorian
people for a more just and prosperous country. In many ways
the referendum is an affirmation of the President,s
popularity, and desire for change, rather than an evaluation
of the merits of the draft constitution. Religious leaders
have successfully raised questions among "values voters,"
and Mayor Nebot has rallied his most fervent fans to vote
against the draft constitution. Doubts among these groups
of voters will make the vote close in the city of Guayaquil.
However, in the rest of the country, the "no" vote looks
like a step backward to the politics of past. End Comment

GRIFFITHS