VICE PRESIDENT ESPADA SPEAKS OUT ON WEAKNESS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001592 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV MARR PINR PREL GT SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT ESPADA SPEAKS OUT ON WEAKNESS OF GUATEMALA'S DEMOCRACY Classified By: Poloff Lance Hegerle for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On December 17, Vice President Rafael Espada delivered the keynote address at the graduation ceremony for the National Strategic Studies Program. Espada criticized Guatemalan political parties, including his own UNE party, as personal vehicles rather than genuine institutions. He also spoke candidly about the country's lack of social progress, as well as the threat of authoritarian populism. Espada has a track record of making controversial statements brusquely challenging the status quo, at times causing discomfort within to the GOG. End Summary. Espada Speaks His Mind -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During his December 17 keynote address at the graduation ceremony for the National Strategic Studies Program, Vice President Espada discussed his views on security, the need to change how the country deals with the issues of poverty and social inclusion, recent Guatemalan history, Cuba, and the regional challenges of authoritarian populism. The event was attended by many high-ranking members of the military including the Minister of Defense, academics involved in strategic studies and security issues, members of the diplomatic community, and local media. Espada characterized his remarks as &personal opinions,8 adding that he felt it important that controversial issues be discussed openly in such forums to help foster debate and discussion. What followed was a 45-minute discourse on Guatemalan history starting in the 1940's that centered on the need to increase social inclusion and reform Guatemala's institutions. Espada was not following prepared remarks, and some of his statements were at odds with policies espoused by President Colom. UNE "Not a Real Political Party" -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Espada declared that there were "no true political parties in Guatemala," and stated that creating true political parties was necessary for Guatemala to progress. A long-time Houston resident, he held up America's political parties as examples of institutions that allowed voters to select leaders who represented their interests, as opposed to Guatemala's parties which are centered around personalities. He stated that even his own UNE party "was not a real political party," but added that he had hopes that it could eventually transition into Guatemala's first genuine institutional party. On Corruption -------------- ¶4. (SBU) At one point Espada stated that his willingness to speak frankly had in the past gotten him into trouble. As an example he referred to comments he had made regarding corruption in the judiciary, which had drawn sharp criticism from influential judges. At first he stated that his comments referred to corruption in the judiciary in general and not to particular judges, implying that he had been taken out of context. However, he later elaborated on his accusation by saying that the entire rule of law apparatus, including the Public Ministry, the Police, and the judiciary, was extremely corrupt. He added that recent rulings by high ranking judges that freed corrupt former Portillo Government officials, as well as former President Portillo himself, was clear evidence that his prior statements had been accurate. On Hugo Chavez and CUBA -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Espada talked at length about Guatemala's historic problem with income inequality and the failure of prior governments to provide poor and indigenous groups with a sense of inclusion in the political process. He stated that Qsense of inclusion in the political process. He stated that in recent history most of the region's political problems had less to do with political ideology than with a failure of governments to address income inequality and social inclusion issues. To support his point he stated that "Che Guevara was the only true communist in pre-revolutionary Cuba," adding that the rest of the revolutionary leaders were simply reacting against social injustice. He also pointed to Hugo Chavez's rise to power in Venezuela as an example of the failure of prior governments to address social issues. He prefaced his remarks by saying that the GOG enjoyed good relations with Venezuela, but stated that Chavez was the natural response to a system that did not address fundamental social problems. He stated that the same sort of populist movement could appear in Guatemala if the government did not address the underlying social issues that fed social exclusion and poverty. He added that "we could have one, two, three, or even ten Chavezes in Guatemala if we do not address these issues, and in Guatemala the upheaval would be much more violent than in Venezuela, because our society has a much more violent history." He concluded by adding that as we enter the 21st century, all governments in the region needed to be more humane and focus more on the underlying causes of poverty. On the Millennium Challenge and Benchmarks -------------- ¶6. (SBU) During his comments Espada referred repeatedly to the Millennium Challenge as a possible way forward for Guatemala. He stressed that Guatemala's Millennium Challenge indicators were "even lower than Haiti's," and called them a good measure of progress in Guatemala. He painted a bleak picture of Guatemala and stated that the country's elites were largely to blame for the state of the country. He complained that elites were "not willing to make sacrifices," and have not done enough to help. ¶7. (C) Comment: Vice President Espada, who practiced heart surgery in Houston for 38 years and is beholden to no Guatemalan political interest group, has earned a reputation as an outspoken critic of Guatemalan society and the state. He once blasted the business class from the distance of Havana's Revolution Plaza, and on another occasion scoured elites for their support of Guatemalan society's "feudal" structure. President Colom and his spokesman have distanced the GOG from Espada's public comments on several occasions. Uncomfortable as Espada's criticisms may be for the government and others, they frequently provoke debate about Guatemala's social ills. McFarland