Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08GUATEMALA1281 | 2008-10-15 14:00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Guatemala |
1. (C) Summary. President of Congress Crespo told the Ambassador October 3 that he believed Congress would approve neither the GOG's tax reform package nor the pending Arms and Ammunition Bill. Crespo supported President Colom's request for a substantial national budget increase to address deteriorating security conditions, but said Colom needed make clear how he intended to pay for it. Given recent corruption scandals, the GOG would need to provide for enhanced transparency of public accounts -- including those administered by the First Lady's "Social Cohesion Council" -- if it wants to raise more taxes, he said. Crespo said he was not seeking to remain in office as President of Congress during 2009, but he appeared open to the possibility of doing so. End Summary. 2. (SBU) During an October 3 meeting with the Ambassador and Pol/Econ Couns, President of Congress Aristides Crespo said he did not know how President Colom planned to pay for his proposed national budget increase, from approximately USD 5.8 billion for 2008 to approximately USD 6.97 billion for 2009 -- a 20.2% increase. (Much of the proposed increase would be for security, and specifically to increase the size of the army and national police, see septel report.) Reactions to Colom's proposal to increase security spending were generally positive, but to effect such changes the GOG would have to produce a plausible plan to pay for them, Crespo said. Crespo and other members of the FRG (Guatemalan Republican Front) take a dim view of IFIs' suggestion that the GOG simply take on more debt, given its continuing fiscal conservatism. The Ambassador noted that President Colom has not yet made clear how the proposed additional troops and police would be employed, and that it would be important that he do so. 3. (C) Crespo said he did not believe the GOG has enough votes in Congress to pass its tax reform proposal in its current form, despite its concession to the private sector to postpone discussion of the income tax portion of the package (ref a). In the wake of the recent congressional funds scandal and other corruption cases, public confidence in the state has ebbed. That being case, Crespo opined, a successful tax reform package would need to be accompanied by enhanced transparency guarantees. Crespo and fellow FRG Congressman Luis Fernando Perez, who chairs Congress's International Relations Committee, said that Congress and the public are also concerned about the transparency of First Lady Sandra de Colom's "Social Cohesion Council." The Council, which is President Colom's vehicle for his Conditional Cash Transfer plan (CCT, "My Family Progresses") and other flagship social welfare programs, manages approximately USD 40 million, but is exempt from the usual transparency rules. Perez noted that the GOG's CCT was modeled on Brazil's, and said the GOG ought to also consider Brazil's companion transparency regulations. 4. (SBU) Crespo and Perez said they thought that the Arms and Ammunition Bill, formally presented to Congress October 7, was also unlikely to pass in its current form. The bill is an attempt to address the widespread problem of illegal gun ownership, including possession of military weapons, and would establish sanctions for infractions of the law. Perez Qwould establish sanctions for infractions of the law. Perez asserted that the bill's definitions of offensive (and therefore illegal) and defensive arms were inadequate and poorly informed. For example, the bill makes references to "large caliber" weapons as offensive, but caliber is irrelevant to such considerations, he asserted. 5. (SBU) Perez also opposed the bill's proposed caps on consumers' monthly ammunition purcases. Some sportsmen have valid reasons for exceding the proposed cap. Furthermore, the ammunition provisions do not differentiate among kinds of ammunition. For example, while it might be desirable to cap purchases of AK-47 rounds, there is no reason to limit purchases of bird shot for shotguns, Perez said. He noted that large land owners continue to oppose any ban on long-distance weapons, which they might employ against cattle rustlers or other thieves. Finally, no consensus had yet been reached on whether the Department of Control of Arms and Ammunition (DECAM), which as the state's gun licensing authority brings in much revenue, should remain within the Ministry of Defense or be transferred to the civilian Ministry of Government, as proposed in the draft legislation. 6. (SBU) Crespo said he is not interested in retaining the Presidency of Congress in 2009. His party, the FRG, has only 14 of the 158 congressional seats, and it would be logical that a candidate from a larger party assume the presidency. He said, however, that in the midst of the congressional funds scandal (ref b), the leadership of Congress needs to demonstrate "tranquillity" and work toward restoring confidence in the institution. He opined that two frequently mentioned candidates, Mario Taracena of the governing UNE (National Union for Hope) and Roxana Baldetti of the opposition PP (Patriot Party), are both polemical figures and would not contribute toward that end. Crespo was pleased that President Colom had cooled developing rivalries for the presidency within his own UNE party by saying the UNE would not take a position on who should assume the Presidency of Congress until January 2009. 7. (C) Comment. Many informed observers believed that the GOG-private sector compromise to postpone discussion of income taxes had breathed new life into the rest of the GOG's tax reform package. Crespo's view is among the most pessimistic we have heard, but it may be accurate. That would be unfortunate, since reform is needed to invigorate Guatemala's chronically under-funded state. Crespo has so far demonstrated moderate and competent leadership of Congress; certainly Congress could do worse in electing its next leader. McFarland |