30 Years of Reform and Opening in Guangdong - Retreat to

UNCLAS GUANGZHOU 000732 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, S/P, INR/EAP STATE PASS USTR CHINA OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PGOV ELAB ETRD EINV EIND CH SUBJECT: 30 Years of Reform and Opening in Guangdong - Retreat to Economic Statism? REF: A) GUANGZHOU 600, B) GUANGZHOU 618, C) GUANGHZOU 685, D) GUANGZHOU 715, E) GUANGZHOU 723, F) BEIJING 4574 (U) This document is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. Not for release outside U.S. government channels. Not for internet publication. ¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Guangdong Province, where China's economic transformation began, is in a celebratory mood publicly, but behind the scenes, everyone - from top government and business leaders to think tankers whose job it is to peer into the future - is fretting over the meaning of 30 years of Reform and Opening and an uncertain economic future. The overriding theme in south China (for now) is the triumph of private entrepreneurship over state-ownership and the dramatic increase in living standards for the people of the province. But the global economic downturn has exacerbated trends that were already under way (especially the closing of many SMEs and a decline in job opportunities); there also appear to be significant disagreements among leaders within the province and between some provincial and national leaders, if reports are true of Premier Wen Jiabao's unhappiness with Party Secretary Wang Yang's desire to proceed with his "double transfer" policy. All of which makes for a very interesting upcoming year, with high stakes politically for those involved: playing for time by retrenching vs. playing for the future through innovative practices. ¶2. (SBU) Comment: Fear of unemployment and possible social unrest has led some academics and other observers to predict that there could be a resurgence in the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the future, largely for social stability reasons, but also because state credit institutions will be most comfortable with the limited risk of loaning to SOEs. How likely that might be is unclear, given how far south China has come in shaking off state-owned, but not necessarily state-supported, industry. We think that the next stage of development in the area is more likely to be based on technology and financial services, with the accent on high-value-added products and innovation. Still, Guangdong may be at a turning point; we only wish our crystal ball would give us some guidance on whether the Pearl River Delta (PRD) will more closely approximate the commercial strategies of the Yangzi River Delta, with a globally connected community, or be the answer to a trivia question about which once vibrant area used to be the locus of economic development in China. End summary and comment. (U) This is part a two cable report. A companion cable (septel) examines the political meaning of Guangdong's celebration of the 30-year anniversary of Reform and Opening. Guangdong Celebrates -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Guangdong is putting its best foot forward as it celebrates the 30 years of reform and opening. Every major Guangdong media outlet, from TV networks to Internet media and newspapers, has joined the propaganda push to remind people of how well they have fared under the far-sighted stewardship of the Communist Party. The government and academic institutions have also sponsored forums to mull over the meaning of the anniversary. The message is congratulatory - Reform and Opening has been an unparalleled success in improving the lives of the people of Guangdong. However, at a time of growing economic difficulty, further liberalization and the future structure of Guangdong's economy are less clear. Better Lives for All Citizens -------------- ¶4. (U) A Guangdong government vast exhibition commemorating the Reform and Opening achievements at the former site of the city's famous biannual Canton Trade Fair takes great pains to demonstrate the tangible economic benefits. The 60,000 visitors who walk through the exhibit each weekend are treated to displays that show primitive farming conditions, "clunky" household appliances and meal vouchers from 1978-79. But that's all past, as subsequent displays highlight the emergence of Guangdong's modern cities and advanced transportation links, widely available consumer appliances and electronics on a par with those sold in advanced western economies, and sporting and cultural achievements culminating with the province's Olympic medal winners. There are also renditions of Guangzhou's plans for the Asian Games, which it will host in 2010. ¶5. (U) The celebration of Reform and Opening focuses on the provincial leadership's "people first" policy (septel). There have been major economic accomplishments to be sure, with growth in GDP and trade volume, but more importantly, the people have benefited. Guangdong life expectancy in the last 30 years increased from 71.2 years in 1978 to 75.3 now, and infant mortality rates fell from 34.7 deaths per thousand births to 6.25 today, or less than half the national average. Per capita incomes for both farmers and urbanites have increased at a staggering rate, from RMB 193 in 1978 to RMB 5,450 today, and from RMB 412 to RMB 17,699, respectively. In addition, literacy rates have climbed from 75 percent to 96 percent, and the number of Guangdong's college graduates has surpassed 5 million, unimaginable in the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution when the country's schools were closed and a generation of students was sent to the countryside as laborers. Even those of our local contacts who are most critical about human and labor rights and who believe some of what has been accomplished could have been done differently, acknowledge that life is better and the move toward private enterprise and investment (with government support and incentives in many cases) has played an instrumental role. ¶6. (U) Expansion of consumer choice is another major benefit that has been highlighted in the celebration. Despite China's rash of product safety scandals for products ranging from pet food to toys and milk, improvements in the quality, selection and price of products and services are dramatically better than in 1978. Guangdong Province has emerged as both the richest and the second most populous province, with local residents purchasing and driving the most cars and using the most cell phones of any province in the country. "Capital of Reform and Opening" -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Guangdong Province's leading role in 30 years of Reform and Opening was inevitable and will continue for the next 30 years, according to the narrative commonly repeated in the province's official circles. Guangzhou Party School Vice Chairman Wang Yongping recently told econoffs that the city had always been a pioneer of reform and opening, not just in the past 30 years but for the previous two millennia. He cited proximity to Hong Kong and Macau as well as travel along ancient sea trade routes; a culture open to trade and experimental government policies; and a long history of progressive economic exchange even when the country was "closed" to outside interactions as factors that meant Reform and Opening was unstoppable in Guangdong. Economic Downturn Opens Door to Naysayers -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Nevertheless south China's economic future is today a hot subject for doubters, dissenters and detractors who are increasingly voicing concerns about the direction and policies of the past 30 years, and more importantly, the way forward. Peng Peng, a researcher at the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, said the criticisms primarily focus on two areas. First, many opponents claim that the policies have not only failed to achieve the goal of common prosperity, but have in fact been instrumental in creating the huge wealth gap between the rich and poor. Second, according to Peng, many dissenters view the environmental impact and excessive resource consumption as evidence that China's economic growth is unsustainable in its current form. ¶9. (SBU) At the same time, a spate of foreign-invested factory closures has attracted widespread media attention throughout south China, starting in late summer and growing steadily through the fall (refs B and D). Unemployment rates among factory workers and other labor groups rose faster than could have been foreseen six months ago, and fear of social unrest among the unemployed has gripped leaders at all levels. Recent media reports have suggested that there is some level of disagreement between provincial and central leadership on how much support should be provided to the small- and medium-sized enterprises that have felt the brunt of the global economic downturn. Guangdong Party Secretary reportedly wants to allow "backward productive forces" to die, consistent with his "double transfer" policy aimed at forcing labor-intensive industries out of the PRD. Meanwhile, Premier Wen Jiabao has been portrayed in the reports as the champion the struggling SMEs. ¶10. (SBU) Long-term solutions to these problems remain unclear, but many business and academic leaders in south China argue that without a reliable social safety net for China's population, domestic consumption will never increase to a level that can effectively rebalance the economy away from export-led growth. Citizens currently have little incentive to increase consumption if their personal savings are the only viable substitute for a nonexistent social safety net. This perception has been reinforced by some official media portrayals of western profligacy as the number one cause of the current economic downturn. Resurgence of State-Owned Enterprises? -------------- ¶11. (SBU) It this set of circumstances that leads Sun Yat-sen University Economics Professor Lin Jiang to believe that the government's role in south China's economy will expand in order to ensure stable employment for millions of workers and keep students in school longer. In a conversation with econoff, Lin predicted that despite the privatization and closure of thousands of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in recent years, an opposite trend would emerge, with the government directing funds and projects to SOEs in large part to raise employment levels. At the same time, Lin speculated that universities and graduate schools would also be expanded and students would be encouraged to continue attending school after completing their undergraduate programs as a way to temporarily stem the tide of unemployed college graduates. Capital Flooding into State-Owned Enterprises -------------- ¶12. (SBU) South China financiers also told us they have noticed a trend towards larger and stronger SOEs as China's fiscal stimulus package and more relaxed lending policies have funneled large amounts of capital to them. One international banker told us that in the current economic environment, loans to SOEs are a better risk than lending to SMEs. Another banker told us he believes that SOEs are receiving the most attractive terms on new financing, in part because state-owned bank employees might perceive a potential SOE default as less threatening than a private-enterprise default if risk management officers later ask why a particular loan was approved. News reports indicate that state-owned banks like China Construction Bank have agreed to underwrite provincial and local government policy loans and stimulus efforts, further demonstrating the government's reliance on state firms to step in and help stabilize south China's economy before the downturn becomes more severe. Comment: Two Steps Back, Then Step Forward? -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The real economic challenge facing China's leaders is how to continue economic liberalization at the same time as maintaining strong growth during the downturn. As academics and policy makers grapple with this dilemma, it appears that local authorities have already begun grasping at the only tools they have available to spur growth - the remnants of the state-controlled economy. ¶14. (SBU) One view is that heavy reliance on SOEs could be a short-term crutch until local and provincial governments feel more secure about their economic, and by extension, their political security. As the recent economic volatility stabilizes, policies less reliant on state-owned economic entities could then be reintroduced. On the other hand, with social harmony increasingly valued and leaders uncomfortable with free market forces, some may see the SOEs as more effective tools in addressing long-term problems such as unequal income distribution and the lack of a social safety net. In addition, many policy makers and Party members may benefit from the retrenchment of SOEs. The danger for private enterprise (mirrored perhaps by the opportunity for government managers) is that it may prove difficult to turn back toward the private sector when the current economic cycle returns to a positive direction. ¶15. (SBU) As one international banker told us, an SOE's monopoly advantages can be leveraged to produce a "good enough" economic scorecard in the short term, but will never spur the improvements and innovations that will yield long-term economic growth. In addition, the government has long called for expansion of the service sector, but the same banker contended that such a development would only be possible after greater deregulation, not more, an approach that would directly challenge the resurgence of SOE power and influence. There is little argument here about short-term problems and the long-term direction China should be moving in, which is greater reliance on market signals, a larger domestic market for consumers and more policies that help those less fortunate through difficult economic times. The problem is, as always, getting from the short term to the long term in a way that supports a leadership whose legitimacy resides in its ability to deliver the economic goods. GOLDBERG