LNG Expansion - A Key Component in South China's Energy

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 000007 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS EMB BEIJING FOR DOE USDOE FOR OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY USDOE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS USDOE FOR FOSSIL POLICY AND ENERGY STATE FOR EAP/CM, EB/TRA, AND EB STATE ALSO PASS USTR FOR CHINA OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG ECON EMIN SENV PGOV TRGY CH SUBJECT: LNG Expansion - A Key Component in South China's Energy Strategy REF: A) Guangzhou 418, B) Guangzhou 419 ¶1. (U) Summary: South China is betting big on liquefied natural gas to diversify its energy mix and plans to expand LNG import capacity dramatically over the next few years. Fujian Terminal will become the region's second LNG terminal in 2009. Dapeng Terminal in Shenzhen, currently China's only operational LNG terminal, also plans to expand. In addition, pipeline construction will bring more natural gas to south China, with Guangdong's provincial government planning to increase natural gas usage as its primary 'clean-energy' alternative to coal. As south China makes a move into cleaner energy sources, the region could in the long-term develop into a fertile market for LNG. End summary. -------------- Growing LNG Capacity in South China -------------- ¶2. (U) South China's capacity to import LNG will expand dramatically over the next few years. Thus far, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved nine LNG terminals countrywide, two of which will be located in the south China cities of Xiuyu, Fujian, and Zhuhai, Guangdong. The Fujian Terminal is set to have a capacity of 2.6 million tons per annum (mtpa),while the Zhuhai Terminal will have a 3.5-mtpa capacity. According to FACTS Global Energy, an energy consulting firm, two additional south China terminals are planned for Guangxi (3 mtpa capacity) and Hainan (2 mtpa capacity),pending NDRC approval. ¶3. (U) The Fujian Terminal, which is already under construction, is a joint venture between China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and U.S.-based Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Total investment in the project is expected to reach RMB 300 million (US$40 million). The terminal will become fully operational in 2009 and will be China's first plant to capture cold energy as the LNG is regasified. The cold energy will be used in the production of industrial gasses. CNOOC has reported that five city gas distributors and three power plants in Fujian are scheduled to purchase 2.6 million tons of LNG per year imported from Indonesia over a 25-year period. �0A; -------------- -------------- Dapeng Terminal: 1 Year in Operation and Expanding -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) China's only operational LNG port terminal is also in south China. The Dapeng LNG Terminal, located in Shenzhen, began operations September 28, 2006. The joint venture has 11 major shareholders, including CNOOC Gas and Power, Co. (33%),BP (30%), and Shenzhen Gas Corporation (10%). Dapeng Terminal currently has three 160,000-cubic-meter LNG storage tanks and a 385-km pipeline transmission system that delivers gas across south China. As of August 2007, Dapeng Terminal had taken delivery of 43 LNG shipments carrying a total of 2.25 million tons of LNG. Expansion in the planned second phase of the terminal includes enlarged storage capacity, expanded trucking facilities, and a new terminal and pipeline construction. Dapeng supplies 63.4 percent of its imports to power plant customers, including Guangdong Huizhou LNG Power Co., and 36.6 percent to gas companies in five major Pearl River Delta cities. -------------- Buying from Australia -------------- ¶5. (U) Australia's Northwest Shelf has been the exclusive source for LNG shipments to Dapeng Terminal, and Australia will continue to be an important source for China's LNG imports. In September, PetroChina signed a non-binding agreement with Woodside Petroleum, Australia's largest publicly traded oil and gas company, for a 15-to-20-year LNG supply at 2-3 mtpa from the Browse Basin Gas Project off Australia's northwest coast. Also in September, PetroChina signed an agreement with Royal Dutch/Shell for a 20-year LNG supply at 1 mtpa from the Gorgon LNG Project in Western Australia. Both agreements are still subject to final company and government approvals. Additionally, China remains in negotiation GUANGZHOU 00000007 002 OF 002 with several other countries such as Qatar, Iran, Sakalin (Russia), and Indonesia to secure long-term LNG supplies. -------------- Growing Demand in Guangdong Province -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Guangdong's provincial government is pursuing a plan to increase natural gas usage as its primary 'clean-energy' alternative to coal. Qingbiao Wu, Chairman of the Guangdong Oil and Gas Association (GOGA) told us that natural gas demand in the province will increase for both residential use and power generation. The government has set a goal that 50% of residences use natural gas by ¶2010. It also aims to increase power output fueled by natural gas to 10% of Guangdong's total power output. Nevertheless, natural gas still only accounts for 2-3 percent of China's overall energy mix, versus a world average of nearly 25 percent. Beijing currently plans to increase China's natural gas usage to 5.6 percent of its energy mix by 2010. ¶7. (U) In order to enhance the attractiveness of natural gas to consumers, the Guangdong Pricing Bureau recently set the natural gas price cap for residential use at RMB 3.45 per cubic meter and announced the price would be fixed for one year. Comparatively, residential-use natural gas is priced at RMB 1.90 to RMB 2.05 per cubic meter in Beijing and RMB 2.10 in Shanghai. Natural gas used in Beijing and Shanghai is from domestic sources, which lowers costs of shipment. LNG utilized in Guangdong, which is imported from Australia, involves additional overhead costs and limits the government's ability to control supply costs. -------------- Pipeline Expansion -------------- ¶8. (U) Construction of China's longest pipeline will also increase the supply of natural gas available for south China. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC),China's largest petroleum company, will begin construction of the pipeline in 2008. It will transport natural gas from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to south China, stretching 6,500 kilometers from the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region to Guangzhou. This project is expected to cover double the distance of the West-East pipeline, currently the longest in China, and will have an annual capacity of 30 billion cubic meters. Supply contracts are still under negotiation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and the pipeline may also carry domestic gas as exploration continues in China. The project has a 2010 scheduled completion date. ¶9. (SBU) GOGA's Wu also said that PetroChina is planning a second phase of the West-East pipeline, which will connect to Guangdong through Hunan and Hubei provinces. The project is expected to carry natural gas from domestic sources as well as Russia, Uzbekistan and other central Asian countries. In addition, Guangdong's provincial government is considering a province-wide distribution network for natural gas, though the final plan for the project has yet to be announced publicly. -------------- -------------- Comment-Market Realities and the Price of Clean Energy -------------- -------------- ¶10. (U) China must look overseas for much of this proposed added natural gas as domestic production is unable to fill the gap. China's ability to expand LNG use to help meet these goals depends on its willingness to pay international market prices. Even though, LNG is an environmentally-friendly alternative, coal remains a much cheaper option. In the past several years, Beijing's unwillingness to pay market price has delayed, or derailed several LNG project negotiations. Progress on new LNG terminals in South China suggests that Beijing may have learned from these past failures. If so, as south China makes a move into cleaner energy sources, the region could in the long-term develop into a fertile market for LNG. GOLDBERG