BIC-X: BILATERAL IMPLEMENTATION COMMISSION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L GENEVA 000958 DEPT FOR T, VCI AND EUR/PRA DOE FOR NNSA/A-24 CIA FOR WINPAC JCS FOR J5/DDGSP SECDEF FOR OSD(P)/STRATCAP NAVY FOR CNO-N5JA AND DIRSSP AIRFORCE FOR HQ USAF/ASX AND ASXP DTRA FOR OP-OSA AND DIRECTOR NSC FOR LUTI DIA FOR LEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018 TAGS: KACT PARM BIC JCIC US RS SUBJECT: BIC-X: BILATERAL IMPLEMENTATION COMMISSION, SESSION X, NOVEMBER 12, 2008 REF: A. GENEVA 561 (BIC-IX-001) ¶B. 04 GENEVA 127 (BIC-I-003) Classified By: Jerry A. Taylor, United States Representative to the Bilateral Implementation Commission. Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is BIC-X-001. ¶2. (U) Meeting Date: November 12, 2008 Time: 10:00 A.M. - 11:10 A.M. Place: Russian Mission, Geneva -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶3. (C) U.S. and Russian representatives to the Moscow Treaty's Bilateral Implementation Commission (BIC) met at the Russian Mission in Geneva, Switzerland, on November 12, 2008, to conduct the Tenth Session of the BIC. The sides presented briefings on the status of, and plans for, reductions in their strategic nuclear forces. The United States briefing specified that the number of operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads (ODSNW) as of September 30, 2008, was 2303. The Russian briefing specified that the number of Russian strategic nuclear warheads (SNW) as of October 1, 2008, was ¶1833. There were no significant changes in terms of plans to meet the Moscow Treaty limits reported by either side since the Ninth Session of the BIC (Ref A). -------------- OPENING REMARKS -------------- ¶4. (C) Koshelev welcomed the U.S. Delegation and introduced the Russian Delegation. Taylor reciprocated after expressing U.S. condolences for the military and civilian personnel who were killed or injured as a result of the November 8, 2008, accident on a Russian submarine. Koshelev then made the following comments: - There have been rapid developments in the political sphere since the July session of the BIC, including the tragic events in the North Caucasus. - These events were followed by a period of cooling down of some relations. However, this cooling down did not impact U.S.-Russian interactions with regard to strategic offensive reductions. In this regard, the Russian Federation received the U.S. draft post-START text and regards this as a positive step forward concerning interactions on strategic offensive reductions. - There have also been positive developments in the U.S. political sphere, and Russia congratulates the United States on the election of its 44th President. Russia cannot but like the intentions expressed by the President-elect, in particular with regard to change. Reiterating the statement made by President Medvedev, the Russian Federation is prepared to cooperate constructively with the United States. Russia only hopes that the positive statements that have been made can be successfully implemented. - This marks the Tenth Session of the BIC, and can be regarded as a sort of anniversary session. The Russian Federation considers the BIC to be a critical element of interaction with the United States. - Because the START Treaty expires in December 2009, the work of the BIC may be elevated. We should have a common goal to improve the practicality of our work. The current system for exchanging information provides the required level of confidence and predictability. However, the information exchanged is based on START information and notifications, and we must consider the volume and structure of the information provided under START. With this in mind, Russia believes the Parties should revisit the proposals of the Russian Federation made during BIC-I (Ref B),and expects these proposals will be considered favorably by the United States. Taylor replied that the United States would study Koshelev's comments and would review the proposals from the first session of the BIC. -------------- U.S. BRIEFING ON STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES -------------- ¶5. (U) Yaguchi presented the following unclassified briefing updating the status of U.S. ODSNW. (Begin comment: What follows are the briefing slides and the narrative used for each slide. End comment.) Begin text of U.S. presentation: Title Slide: U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Bilateral Implementation Commission November 2008 Narrative: - This briefing will provide an update on U.S. strategic nuclear forces. - It will summarize actions taken since the last BIC briefing and long-range plans for these forces. Slide 2 U.S. Plans for Strategic Nuclear Forces - Reduce total operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1700-2200 by 31 December 2012: -- Remove some delivery systems from service; and -- For delivery systems retained, remove some warheads from operational missiles to reduce the number of operationally deployed nuclear warheads - Completed actions: -- Removed 4 Trident I SSBNs from strategic service -- B-1B conventional role only -- Deactivated Peacekeeper ICBMs -- Deactivated Trident I SLBMs -- Converted 4 Trident I SSBNs to carry Trident II SLBMs -- Removed 50 Minuteman III ICBM silo launchers from strategic service - Ongoing actions: -- Removing some warheads from operational missiles -- Deactivating all AGM-129 Advanced Cruise Missiles - Baseline 2012 Strategic Nuclear Force Structure: -- 14 Trident II SSBNs -- 450 Minuteman III ICBMs -- 20 B-2 Bombers -- 76 B-52H Bombers Narrative: - Our existing strategic nuclear force structure, with the reductions mentioned during previous briefings, will remain in service at least through 2020. -- Minuteman service life is projected through 2030. -- Ohio class ballistic missile submarines have been extended in life and the oldest of the remaining 14 is planned to be operational beyond 2025. -- Our oldest bomber, the B-52, has had numerous upgrades and, along with the B-2, should remain operational for several decades. - We have underway, or in the planning stages, life extension programs to ensure that these systems remain reliable and safe and incorporate modern electronics. - In addition, we are beginning to examine options to replace these weapon systems when each reaches the end of its service life. Slide 3 Update on ICBMs Minuteman III - Status: Removed the last 5 of 50 Minuteman III ICBM silo launchers from strategic service in July 2008. Narrative: - We started to deactivate 50 Minuteman III silo launchers in early summer 2007. - Complete deactivation occurred in July 2008. Slide 4 Update on SSBNs Modification of 4 SSBNs to SSGNs - Status: Four Trident I SSBNs have been removed from strategic service and have completed their refueling overhauls -- All four SSGNs have completed modification -- There are no plans to return Trident I SSBNs to strategic service Conversion of 4 Trident I SSBNs to Trident II - Status: Four submarines have been converted from Trident I to Trident II SLBM launchers -- Trident I SLBMs are deactivated Narrative: - There are no operational Trident I launchers. Slide 5 Update on Heavy Bombers Heavy Bombers - Status: Lost one B-52 in July 2008. Nuclear Air-Launched Cruise Missiles - Status: The United States plans to complete the deactivation of the AGM-129 Advanced Cruise Missile by December 31, 2012. Narrative: - One B-52 crashed since the last report. - The United States plans to complete the deactivation of the AGM-129 by December 31, 2012. - The FY08 National Defense Authorization Act mandated that the Air Force not reduce the force structure below 76 B-52s. The deactivation of B-52s has not yet begun. Slide 6 Total U.S. Operationally Deployed Strategic Nuclear Warheads - For purposes of the Moscow Treaty, the United States considers Operationally Deployed Strategic Nuclear Warheads to be: -- Reentry vehicles on intercontinental ballistic missiles in their launchers -- Reentry vehicles on submarine-launched ballistic missiles in their launchers onboard submarines, and -- Nuclear armaments loaded on heavy bombers or stored in weapons storage areas of heavy bomber bases - A small number of spare strategic nuclear warheads (including spare ICBM warheads) are located at heavy bomber bases. -- The U.S. does not consider these warheads to be operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads. - As of September 30, 2008, the aggregate number of U.S. Operationally Deployed Strategic Nuclear Warheads was 2303. Narrative: - This is the U.S. definition of operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads. - The U.S. does not consider spare warheads to be operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads. - During BIC IX, the U.S. reported that as of May 31, 2008, the aggregate number of U.S. ODSNW was 2647. - As of September 30, 2008, the aggregate number of U.S. ODSNW was 2303. Slide 7 Summary - Current and planned strategic nuclear force structure and activities are consistent with the current strategic environment. Narrative: In summary, - Our operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads continue to be reduced consistent with the terms of the Moscow Treaty. - The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review recommended reducing MM-III ICBMs to 450. - We are deactivating all AGM-129 Advanced Cruise Missiles. - We have a number of activities in progress related to sustainment of our strategic forces and implementation of our defense strategy. These are consistent with the new strategic environment. - Our intention is to continue to provide transparency and predictability on our activities and forces through actions such as this briefing. End text of U.S. presentation. -------------- RUSSIAN BRIEFING ON STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES -------------- ¶6. (C) Ryzhkov presented the following briefing, classified confidential, updating the status of and plans for Russia's strategic nuclear forces. At the beginning of the briefing he noted that the information was current as of October 1, 2008, which is Russia's traditional cut-off date for information presented during the fall session of the BIC. Begin text of official translation of Russian briefing: Official Translation Title Page: Reduction of Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation Under the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions Tenth Session of the Bilateral Implementation Commission for the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions Geneva, November 2008 Page 2 Plans to Reduce and Limit Strategic Nuclear Warheads The Russian Federation's plans have not changed since the previous session of the Bilateral Implementation Commission for the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions: -- The Russian Federation will reduce and limit its strategic nuclear warheads so that by December 31, 2012, the aggregate number of such warheads will not exceed 1700-2200; -- For the purposes of counting nuclear warheads under the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions, the Russian Federation considers the following: - reentry vehicles on ICBMs in their launchers; - reentry vehicles on SLBMs in their launchers on board submarines; - nuclear armaments loaded on heavy bombers and those stored in weapons storage areas directly at heavy bomber bases. Page 3 The Russian Federation is implementing its plans by: -- removing from service and subsequently eliminating missiles, launchers, submarines, and heavy bombers that have reached the end of their warrantied service life; -- converting silo launchers of ICBMs for new armaments and modernizing heavy bombers; -- developing and putting into service land-based and sea-based strategic missile systems of a new type: - tests of the RSM-56 SLBM will continue; - tests of the prototype of the RS-24 ICBM, which is intended to replace obsolete missiles on alert status, will continue; - work on equipping the Strategic Rocket Forces with missile systems with silo-based and mobile-based SS-27 ICBMs will continue. Page 4 Progress in Strategic Offensive Arms Reductions in 2008 By October 1, 2008, the Russian Federation had eliminated: -- 19 road-mobile launchers for SS-25 ICBMs (including 1 by means of conversion to static display); -- 20 launchers of SS-N-20 SLBMs; -- 39 SS-25 ICBMs (including 1 by means of launching); -- 10 SS-19 ICBMs (including 1 by means of launching); -- 3 SS-18 ICBMs (including 2 by means of launching); -- 3 SS-24 ICBMs; -- 1 SS-N-18 SLBM(by means of launching); -- 2 SS-N-20 SLBMs; -- 2 SS-N-23 SLBMs; -- 1 Bear H heavy bomber. (Begin comment: Ryzhkov noted that eliminations will continue during the year and the Russian Federation will complete by the end of 2008 the eliminations that it had planned for the year and had presented during BIC-IX (Ref A). End comment.) Page 5 Results of Implementation of the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions in 2008 As of October 1, 2008, the Russian Federation had 1833 strategic nuclear warheads, which is 199 fewer than as of May 1, 2008. Page 6 Conclusion -- The Russian Federation continues to reduce its strategic nuclear warheads under the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions. -- The Russian Federation determines for itself the composition and structure of its strategic nuclear forces. In this connection, the Russian Federation is guided by national security interests and the interests of maintaining strategic stability. End text of official translation of Russian briefing. -------------- MEETING CONCLUSION -------------- ¶7. (C) No questions were raised by either side concerning the information presented by the other. Taylor noted that during the First Session of the BIC, the delegations approached information exchanges cautiously, unsure of the manner for presenting sensitive information associated with future plans for implementing the Moscow Treaty. He considered it a credit to the U.S. and Russian Governments how each has approached information exchanges in the BIC, and the positive progression that has occurred in this regard since the First Session. As a result, the United States had no questions concerning the presentation by the Russian Federation. Taylor concluded that it was clear both sides were working hard to implement the Moscow Treaty, and he appreciated the opportunity to exchange information in the BIC. ¶8. (C) Koshelev replied by stating that Taylor's assessment confirmed the wisdom of the political leadership, which sometimes makes decisions that are not understood at the experts' level. In this regard a political decision concerning an agreement to replace the START Treaty is necessary, and perhaps in the next 5-10 years contentious issues will be resolved and there will continue to be an exchange of information as well as verification measures for the data exchanged. Koshelev concluded by stating that the Russian Federation had no questions concerning the U.S. briefing. ¶9. (U) Documents exchanged: - U.S.: -- U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Presentation, dated November 2008. - Russia: -- Russian Presentation on Reductions of Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation under the SOR Treaty, dated November 2008. ¶10. (U) Delegation lists: U.S. Delegation Mr. Taylor Lt Col Comeau Mr. DeNinno Mr. Dunn Mr. Fortier Mr. Hanchett Mr. Johnston Mr. Kuehne Mr. Vogel Mr. Yaguchi Ms. Gross (Int) Russian Delegation Mr. Koshelev Mr. Artem'yev Mr. Kashirin CAPT (1st Rank) Kuz'min Maj Gen Nikishin Col Novikov Col Ryzhkov Mr. Serov Ms. Sorokina Col Zaytsev Mr. Gusov (Int) ¶11. (U) Taylor sends. TICHENOR NNNN End Cable Text