SKELEMANI: ZIM POWERSHARING DEAL IS DEAD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000994 SIPDIS ADDIS FOR USAU LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2018 TAGS: PREL ZI BC SUBJECT: SKELEMANI: ZIM POWERSHARING DEAL IS DEAD REF: GABORONE 975 Classified By: AMBASSADOR STEPHEN J. NOLAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During an office call with Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani November 17, Ambassador Nolan asked for Botswana's view on the status of the powersharing agreement in Zimbabwe and next steps that SADC and the wider international community should take. Skelemani declared that "the deal is dead," and said that he and President Khama hope to meet with South African President and SADC Chair Motlanthe later this week to try and convince him that the powersharing negotiations have failed and that SADC is "back to square one" on Zimbabwe. The Foreign Minister counseled that elevating the Zimbabwe problem to the African Union would be the next logical step, but he had little hope that the AU would take any useful action. He maintained that the western friends of Zimbabwe should continue providing food assistance, but warned that other actions may be counterproductive. Skelemani remains concerned about hunger in Zimbabwe, and he believes there is a strong possibility of political violence against the MDC once the powersharing agreement formally collapses. END SUMMARY. "The Deal is Dead" -------------- ¶2. (C) During an office call with Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani November 17, Ambassador Nolan asked for Botswana's view on the status of the powersharing agreement in Zimbabwe and next steps that SADC and the wider international community should take. Ambassador was accompanied by DCM and Pol/Econ Chief, and Skelemani was joined by the MFA's Director for African and Asian Affairs and Director for American and European Affairs. The Foreign Minister was deeply pessimistic about the prospects for powersharing in Zimbabwe, and he opened the meeting by declaring that "the deal is dead" even though none of the players have formally said so. Giving a brief read-out of the November 9 summit in Sandton, Skelemani said the South African delegation vocally supported the proposal that ZANU-PF and MDC-T should simply co-share the disputed Home Affairs Ministry and immediately form a government. The Foreign Minister noted that the RSA Defense Minister Charles Nqukula was the biggest advocate of co-sharing within the SADC summit. He explained that only Lesotho, Zambia, and Tanzania had sided with Botswana against �00A;co-sharing, and admitted that the clear consensus among the other 10 SADC members (eleven if you include Zimbabwe) was for co-sharing the Home Affairs Ministry. Zimbabwe's allegation that the GOB has trained MDC members to fight against the Government of Zimbabwe were briefly raised at the Summit. When Botswana refuted this notion as ridiculous and invited SADC to investigate, President Mugabe spoke up to "clarify" the charge, explaining that he had never said Botswana was training MDC soldiers but instead mentioned some kind of "youth symposium" from which MDC supporters have emerged who could later "infiltrate" Zimbabwe. (Note: Skelemani dismissed this idea again as pure fantasy on Mugabe's part, and he seemed to have no idea what sort of "youth symposium" Mugabe was talking about or how/why the "infiltration" would take place. End Note.) No African Solution Likely for this African Problem -------------- -------------- ¶3. (S) Minister Skelemani said that he and President Khama hope to meet with South African President and SADC Chair Kgalema Motlanthe later this week to try and convince him that the powersharing negotiations have failed and that SADC is "back to square one" on Zimbabwe. He said that elevating the Zimbabwe problem to the African Union would be the logical next step, but Skelamani offered little hope that the AU would be of any assistance. He explained that SADC was already selling the idea of co-sharing the Home Affairs Ministry to the AU, and he doubted that the AU would take any action that would contradict the SADC consensus position. Furthermore, Skelemani despaired that the African Union would see reason with regard to Zimbabwe. He complained that "half of the AU members don't even know what democracy is about" and said that most of them think the only problem in Zimbabwe is hunger. He called the African Union "useless" and noted GABORONE 00000994 002 OF 002 that many of its member states won't criticize Mugabe because they aren't doing much better than he is. Skelemani mentioned that Liberia was the only AU member likely to side with Botswana and criticize the GOZ. ¶4. (S) Ambassador Nlan asked what the United States and other westen friends of Zimbabwe could do to assist. The Miister replied that th US, UK, and Europe should cntinue to provide food to the people of Zimbabweand to engage diplomatically behind the scenes, ut he counseled that right now the west cannot do much else to bring pressure to bear on Mugabe without providing him the excuse of "western interference" to use to gain sympathy. Skelemani said that Mugabe would find a way to twist any western actions against him and said that Mugabe "is good at manufacturing stories with a straight face." The Foreign Minister also mentioned that the Russian Ambassador had called on him November 14 to ask about next steps regarding Zimbabwe. Skelemani told the Russian envoy that after the AU is brought in, the next step would be the United Nations, but the Russians asked skeptically what the UN could do. Skelemani maintained that AU or the UN need to say that "time is up" in Zimbabwe and call for internationally supervised elections. He also repeated his idea from our previous meeting on Zimbabwe (reftel) that Mugabe would quickly step down and agree to new elections if Zimbabwe's petrol supply was cut off. GOB Concerned About Hunger, Violence in Zimbabwe -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Minister Skelemani predicted that the MDC will soon announce publicly that the September 15 powersharing agreement is finished, since it cannot be implemented in practice. He worried that once the MDC formally withdraws, the GOZ will step up arrests of opposition supporters and engage in a campaign of political violence. In particular, Skelemani is concerned that Morgan Tsvangirai will be arrested almost immediately upon the failure of the powersharing agreement, and the Minister believes that Zimbabwe's complaints about Botswana training MDC youth will be used as a pretext to charge Tsvangirai and other MDC leaders with subversion. The Foreign Minister noted that Tsvangirai told the SADC summit that at least 12 MDC members have gone missing and they are believed to have been seized by the government. Skelemani speculated that MDC Members of Parliament will be targeted (either arrested or attacked) in order to keep them out of Parliament and reduce the MDC's presence in the legislature. He hinted that Tsvangirai might announce the MDC's withdrawal from the powersharing agreement from outside Zimbabwe (perhaps South Africa or Botswana) in order to avoid arrest. Skelemani stressed that the humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe is severe and he reported that according to one of his sources, some parts of Matabeleland North province are not receiving any food deliveries. The Minister also noted that stocks of mealie meal in Francistown and surrounding communities have been completely bought out by visiting Zimbabweans. Comment-- Seeking Hope Among the Hopeless -------------- ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Foreign Minister Skelemani was not able to offer much hope about the future of Zimbabwe. He seems to have no faith that within SADC or the AU there will be any African solutions to this African problem (or perhaps any other). It is clear that Botswana feels increasingly isolated within SADC and the AU for its stance on Zimbabwe. The USG and other friends of democracy must do all we can to quietly bolster and support Botswana for its courageous stance, and perhaps find opportunities to bring together the few like-minded African nations (including Liberia, which has undergone its own renaissance and transformation from tyranny) to build alliances and search for new solutions for Zimbabwe. For now, the mood is not optimistic in Gaborone, while SADC slumbers. End Comment. NOLAN