BOTSWANA: SADC MUST TAKE A TOUGHER LINE ON ZIM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000946 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018 TAGS: PREL UNSC ZI BC SUBJECT: BOTSWANA: SADC MUST TAKE A TOUGHER LINE ON ZIM REF: STATE 112727 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador Nolan and Botswana's Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani discussed Zimbabwe at length during their initial meeting at the Minister's office on October 27. The GOB is doubtful that any real progress will be made during the October 27 SADC troika meeting in Harare. The next step is likely to be a full SADC summit meeting to discuss the Zimbabwe impasse, at which the GOB will argue that the only way forward is for new internationally-supervised elections. If the GOZ will not implement the September 15 agreement or allow new elections to take place, SADC may be forced to impose "true sanctions" on the GOZ. Skelemani argues that sanctions would be extremely painful for ordinary citizens, but perhaps the only way to remove the Mugabe government. Finally, Skelemani discussed the possibility of United Nations intervention to remove Mugabe and allow new elections. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Ambassador Nolan paid his initial courtesy call on Botswana's Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani on October 27 in the Minister's office. Ambassador was accompanied by DCM and Pol/Econ Chief, while Skelemani was accompanied by his private secretary and the MFA's Deputy Director for the Americas. Zimbabwe was a main topic of discussion during the 90 minute meeting, and Ambassador used the opportunity to deliver reftel demarche points. (Note: The rest of the meeting will be reported septel. End Note.) Minister Skelemani reiterated the GOB's position, as stated in the MFA's October 20 press release, that if the current impasse in implementing the September 15 powersharing agreement cannot be broken, new internationally-supervised elections should be held in Zimbabwe. ¶3. (C) Skelemani seemed doubtful that any real progress will be made at the October 27 SADC troika meeting in Harare. He complained that the troika should have waited until after a full SADC summit, which might have given them a more powerful mandate to pressure Mugabe. Skelemani indicated that should the troika fail to make progress, the next step will be a SADC summit to discuss Zimbabwe, at which the GOB will argue for internationally-supervised elections to be held. Though Skelemani was not certain that other SADC members would agree with the GOB position, he said that Botswana would ask the other SADC members what other options they could suggest besides the status quo (which is not working). Skelemani said that other SADC leaders are growing tired of simply backing Mugabe, as his stubbornness is starting to shame them. He indicated that "if we could simply get SADC to speak with one voice on Zimbabwe, by January we could have change." Implying that Mugabe would not agree to new elections, even if called for by a unified SADC, Skelemani argued that SADC may have to impose "true sanctions" on Zimbabwe to force a change in its leadership. He noted that if Botswana suddenly cuts off rail connections from Francistown, if South Africa closes Beit Bridge, if Mozambique declares the Beira port too crowded... Mugabe will get the message." Skelemani lamented the pain that real sanctions would cause to the already suffering ordinary Zimbabwean citizens, but argued that the pain would be short lived (a matter of months) and might be necessary for regime change. ¶4. (C) Finally, Minister Skelemani noted that if SADC cannot resolve the Zimbabwe impasse alone, "shouldn't we be bold enough to ask for the UN to come in and help remove Mugabe?" He noted that SADC "still doesn't have its brigade, and unfortunately the African Union has dust in its eyes." DCM noted that Skelemani recently returned from the UN General Assembly in New York, and asked for the Minister's impression of UN readiness to intervene, especially given the Russian and Chinese vetoes of the most recent UNSC resolution on Zimbabwe. Minister Skelemani explained that he has been in touch with the Russian and Chinese Ambassadors in Botswana. The Chinese Ambassador told the Foreign Minister that China is "waiting for SADC to come out clearly" on what to do about Zimbabwe, and said that China will vote in accordance with SADC's unified position. The Russian Ambassador claimed that his country's vote was related to China's. The Russians do not want China to be seen as Zimbabwe's only friend, so they felt that if China were to veto, Russia must veto too. Skelemani argued that neither China nor Russia had problems with the resolution itself. GABORONE 00000946 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Ambassador reiterated that the U.S. and Botswana share very similar views on Zimbabwe. He commended the GOB and President Khama for their courage and leadership in the region. While acknowledging that SADC has primary responsibility for breaking the political impasse, Ambassador asked the Foreign Minister what international friends and partners like the United States can do to help. Minister Skelemani said that the U.S. and international community can help by "feeding Zimbabweans wherever they run." Ambassador reiterated that the USG is providing significant food aid to Zimbabwe through credible NGOs, and that we stand ready to provide additional assistance. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: It was clear that Foreign Minister Skelemani (an ethnic Kalanga whose family is from the Zimbabwean border area around Francistown) has a deep and personal interest in seeing the situation in Zimbabwe improve. He was passionate in his concern for the ordinary Zimbabwean citizens who are suffering under the current regime and who would bear the brunt of political instability or sanctions. Still, Minister Skelemani argues vociferously that short-term pain for the people may be necessary to bring political change and ultimately improve the situation in Zimbabwe. It is unclear whether Botswana's hardline message on Zimbabwe will have any resonance with other SADC members, but perhaps as Skelemani reports other leaders are finally beginning to tire of backing the Mugabe regime and being embarrassed by his actions. While post is doubtful that economic sanctions or UN intervention are likely in the near term, Skelemani's tough talk shows how impatient Zimbabwe's neighbors -- at least Botswana -- have become with the current impasse. End Comment. NOLAN