PRESIDENT KHAMA'S NEW CABINET -- CHANGE WITH ORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L GABORONE 000248 SIPDIS ABUJA FOR H. MERRITT E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018 TAGS: BC PGOV PINR PINS PREL SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KHAMA'S NEW CABINET -- CHANGE WITH ORDER REF: GABORONE 245 Classified By: Ambassador K. Canavan, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Newly installed President Khama stayed well within his comfort zone by selecting Foreign Minister Lt. General Merafhe to serve as his vice president, and the choice also underscores Khama's inaugural remarks pledging continuity of government policy and vision. Similarly, his newly announced cabinet created no real surprises. The apprehensions of some observers concerning Khama's tendencies to rely on a close circle of active and former military officers have been somewhat reinforced, as he moved swiftly to install his vision of change and new order in Botswana. End summary. ¶2. (C) Ian Khama kept his choice for vice president secret until after his swearing-in, when he officially proposed the name of Foreign Minister Lt. General Mompati Merafhe to the Parliament for its pro forma ratification. Khama and Merafhe have worked together for years, and the President clearly is at ease with the man who was his predecessor as commander of the Botswana Defence Force (BDF). As Foreign Minister, Merafhe kept Botswana on a cautious and low-profile path, avoiding any major missteps but also missing most opportunities for the country to play a more significant international role. The 72 year old Merafhe will not serve as VP for all of the Khama presidency, according to published reports, but rather will be an "interim" figure until Khama settles upon a younger politician to be groomed as his own successor. In the meantime, the new VP will be responsible for chairing a "special committee of cabinet" that Khama announced he will create, that will be charged with generating new approaches on economic and employment issues. ¶3. (C) Vice President Merafhe's greatest asset will likely be his compatibility with Ian Khama -- and his greatest weakness will likely be that same compatibility. Specifically, the two men are simply too similar in background and in thinking to offer each other new perspectives or to serve as mutual intellectual foils. Both Khama and Merafhe hail from the "royal village" sanctuary of Serowe in north central Botswana, both were career military officers before entering politics, and both commanded the BDF. Neither of the two has a university degree, neither has economic or commercial experience or expertise, and neither is considered an instinctive "small d democrat." ¶4. (C) Vice President Merafhe will join the rest of the new cabinet: Presidential Affairs and Public Administration -- Mr. Daniel Kwelagobe (unchanged). This is a key position, responsible for many of the President's non-security, non-ministerial functions such as elections, general oversight, parliamentary relations, and HIV/AIDS coordination. Kwelagobe is well-known and respected by this Mission, and had been widely viewed as a leading VP contender, perhaps to provide regional balance from Molepolole in the south. Local Government -- Ms. Margaret Nasha (unchanged). Trade and Industry -- Mr. Neo Moroka (unchanged). Moroka is quite pleased to remain in this important position , and told the Ambassador he is hoping to "make a deal" with Khama to stay in the job as long as he remains in parliament. Finance and Development Planning -- Mr. Baledzi Gaolathe (unchanged). Youth, Sports and Culture -- Ms. Gladys Kokorwe (vice Pheto, who was not given a new ministerial position). Kokorwe was previously Deputy Speaker of the Parliament. Minerals, Energy and Water Resources -- Mr. Ponatshego Kedikilwe (unchanged). Another VP runner-up, and an economic expert. Communications, Science and Technology -- Ms. Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi (unchanged). Her ministry is a key point of contact for IBB/VOA-related business. Defense, Justice and Security -- Mr. Dikgakgamatso Seretse (vice Skelemani, who was moved to Foreign Affairs). A previous Minister of Lands and Housing, Seretse is also a retired BDF Brigadier, and in his new position is responsible for a range of critical security and law enforcement functions. A cousin of the President, he is one of the MPs representing Serowe. Agriculture -- Mr. Christian De Graf (vice Swartz, who was moved to Works and Transport). An Afrikaner from Ghanzi, commercial farmer, and the only white Motswana presently in parliament. Works and Transport -- Mr. Johnnie Swartz (vice Motsumi, who was moved to Health). Labor and Home Affairs -- Mr. Peter Siele (vice Tibone, who was not given a new ministerial position). Health -- Ms. Lesego Motsumi (vice Tlou, who was not given a new ministerial position). This is a pivotal portfolio for the U.S. due to PEPFAR. We worked closely with Tlou and will engage early with Motsumi. Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation -- Mr. Phandu Skelemani (vice Merafhe, who became VP). Skelemani has previously served as Attorney General, Minister of Presidential Affairs, and Minister of Defense, Justice and Security. Articulate and able, he was perhaps the most consistently impressive member of President Mogae's cabinet. Environment, Wildlife and Tourism -- Mr. Kitso Mokaila (unchanged). Also was an officer in the BDF. Education and Skills Development -- Mr. Jacob Nkate (unchanged). Seen by some as an activist and younger rising star in the ruling BDP, he was also a dark-horse VP contender. Lands and Housing -- Mr. Nonofo Molefhi (vice Seretse). Well known to us as active in HIV/AIDS prevention. ¶5. (C) Many local commentators over the years have noted Ian Khama's military background with some unease, especially as it is coupled with what even his supporters admit is a certain tendency toward an authoritarian management style as well as an apparent dislike for political give-and-take. Khama is also known to socialize largely with active and former military personnel, and to have relied on that circle for advice and support when he was Vice President. Those observers who believe that Khama is over-reliant on his military friends will find some early signs to fuel their worry about the "militarization" of his administration. The most obvious such sign is the selection of retired Lt. General Merafhe to be vice president, another is the elevation of retired Brigadier Seretse to the key post of Minister for Defence, Justice and Security. The Minister of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism, Kitso Mokaila, is also a former BDF officer. Perhaps most significant, though, is that Khama arranged the promotion of his personal chief of staff, BDF Colonel Isaac Kgosi, to head Botswana's new national intelligence service -- and to report directly to the President, without statutory provision for Parliamentary review or oversight. Yet another BDF officer, Colonel Duke Masilo, will assume most of Kgosi's previous duties on Khama's personal staff. Finally, despite having heard years of negative speculation about the significance of their military backgrounds, both Khama and Merafhe have chosen to retain and use their retired military ranks as part of their current official titles. ¶6. (C) Comment: What will be important to watch in coming months is where -- if anywhere -- President Khama decides to point his new ship of state. "Stay the course" has been the standing order for the Botswana government for the last decade or so, even as the need for various reforms has become ever more evident. Government inertia has prevented modernization and reform in the economic and commercial sectors, and stymied an exit from the fiasco resulting from the relocation of the San from the Central KalaQi Game Reserve. In his inaugural address, Khama endorsed the existing national development plan and ruling party manifesto, but warned that citizens "may detect a change in style and special emphasis on a number of issues." He went on to rule out "radical changes in the way we have been setting out our objectives as agreed upon by the ruling party and government." Those mixed messages on change, coupled with his very conservative personnel choices, do not yet reveal much about his intentions to move the nation. ¶7. (C) Comment, continued: When the Ambassador asked Trade Minister Moroka how Khama's first cabinet meeting went on April 2, his face lit up and he said "very well." He went on to say that Khama was very precise, as he was in his inaugural speech, about where he wants to go and how he wants to get there -- something Moroka said he had been missing under President Mogae. Khama had also reiterated his comments about people in the civil service being promoted on merit, and that those who do not perform will be let go. ¶8. (C) Comment, continued: With two days on the job, we will spot President and pilot Khama some air space, and a honeymoon to allow his vision to perhaps fuel a more rapid ascent, especially in the economic area. Whether the two Lt. Generals now running the country can successfully impose military efficiencies and discipline to stimulate economic growth and social progress is still an open question. One thing is certain, however: there is definitely a new order in Botswana. End comment. CANAVAN