DPJ DEFEATS LDP IN YAMAGUCHI LOWER HOUSE BY-ELECTION

UNCLAS FUKUOKA 000027 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: DPJ DEFEATS LDP IN YAMAGUCHI LOWER HOUSE BY-ELECTION REF: A) TOKYO 1076; B) TOKYO 1148 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Japan's main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won the April 27 Lower House by-election in Yamaguchi prefecture, dealing another blow to Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's administration. DPJ candidate Hideo Hiraoka defeated LDP candidate Shigetaro Yamamoto to fill the vacant seat that was created after Yoshihiko Fukuda was elected mayor of Iwakuni. Hiraoka's victory has been attributed largely to pocketbook issues, including negative reactions to the restoration of the provisional gas tax, continued national pension problems and the launch of a new payment system for the elderly in the national health insurance system. Our contacts inform us that the DPJ's victory will not impact the planned move of Carrier Air Wing 5 from Atsugi to Iwakuni. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) Japan's main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),won the April 27 by-election in Yamaguchi prefecture, dealing another blow to Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's administration. DPJ candidate Hideo Hiraoka, a former Lower House member (who also had the support of the Social Democratic Party) defeated the LDP-Komeito candidate Shigetaro Yamamoto. The by-election was held to fill a vacant seat that was created after Yoshihiko Fukuda of the LDP, who had defeated Hiraoka in the 2005 general election, was elected mayor of Iwakuni. ¶3. (SBU) Demonstrating the importance of this election to both parties, the DPJ and LDP sent a number of political celebrities to the district to drum up support for their respective candidates. DPJ leaders such as Ichiro Ozawa and Yukio Hatoyama, as well as LDP leading lights Taro Aso and Yuriko Koike, pressed the flesh and gave town square speeches. For his part, PM Fukuda -- against the advice of local LDP supporters who believed his visit would have a negative impact -- visited prefectural capital Iwakuni on April 20 to support Yamamoto's campaign. ¶4. (U) DPJ victor Hiraoka enjoyed local name recognition, having run in and won elections on two previous occasions. The LDP candidate, on the other hand, joined the race only a month prior to the election as a relative unknown. Further bolstering the DPJ candidate's changes on election day was the relatively high turnout of voters (69%). Generally, a low turnout rate generally benefits the LDP and its organizational ability to get out the vote. ¶5. (SBU) Most observers are crediting Hiraoka's victory to negative reactions to the restoration of the provisional gas tax, continued national pension problems and the recent launch of a new payment system for the elderly under the national health insurance system. In particular, the elderly in Yamaguchi -- 70% of whom usually vote for the LDP -- deserted the party in droves, and their vote this time was evenly split between the LDP and DPJ, LDP party insiders informed us. Less clear is the impact of Communist Party sympathizers. Unlike in previous elections, the Communist Party did not run a candidate, and how the party's supporters would vote was an issue of great interest. One LDP insider confided that, while the Communist Party's voters likely did not support the LDP, in the end their impact was likely not that big. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Contacts in the local business community and Iwakuni Chamber of Commerce are confident that the election's result will not impact the planned relocation of Carrier Air Wing 5 from Atsugi to Iwakuni and that the governor and mayor will continue to work towards commercial air service at MCAS Iwakuni. End Comment. CARRINGTON WONG