Hesse SPD's Risky Opening to the Left Creates Opportunity

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 000698 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: Hesse SPD's Risky Opening to the Left Creates Opportunity for Opponents REF: a. Berlin 0265; b. Frankfurt 0447 Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Following weeks of political deadlock in the wake of the extremely close January 27 state parliamentary elections, Hesse SPD leader Andrea Ypsilanti has retreated from a controversial plan to form a minority government with the Greens, tolerated by the Left Party. The plan foundered on internal resistance within the SPD. For his part, CDU Minister President Roland Koch announced March 10 that he would consider stepping aside to pave the way for a possible CDU-Green-FDP coalition. Ypsilanti's initiative has turned into an embarrassment for the SPD: it has given the state CDU a new opening to propose a realistic alternative to an SPD-led coalition, damaged the SPD's credibility, contributed to a drop in the party's poll numbers (and those of SPD national chairman Kurt Beck),and generated public infighting within the SPD. END SUMMARY. -------------- YPSILANTI FAILS... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Hesse Social Democratic Party (SPD) Chairwoman Andrea Ypsilanti was forced on March 7 to reconsider her decision -- announced only three days earlier -- to accept the support of the Left Party in her bid to become Hesse Minister President when the new state parliament (Landtag) convenes April 5. The decision to accept the support of the Left Party broke a major taboo in western Germany and required de facto permission from SPD national chairman Kurt Beck as well as an affirmative decision by the SPD National Board (reftel a). The plan ran aground after Hesse SPD parliamentarian Dagmar Metzger publicly stated that she would not vote for Ypsilanti because it would violate the SPD's campaign promise not to cooperate with the Left Party. ¶3. (U) Over the weekend, the state SPD met and voted to continue to back Ypsilanti as party leader, but she announced March 10 that she would not be a candidate on April 5 after pressure grew within the national SPD to stop the plan. The Hesse SPD will hold a party convention on March 29, where the question of a minority government will again be discussed. At the national level, conservative SPD leaders have criticized Kurt Beck's support of Ypsilanti and press reports indicate that some would like to see him step aside as the party's candidate for the 2009 federal election. -------------- ...KOCH BLINKS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In the midst of this SPD drama, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Minister President Roland Koch announced March 10 that he would consider stepping aside if the Greens and the Free Democratic Party agree to form a so-called "Jamaica" coalition (the name comes from the party colors of the CDU -- black, FDP -- yellow, and the Greens, which together form the colors of the Jamaican flag). The announcement opens the door for CDU cooperation with the Greens, who have a long-standing antipathy for Koch. One of the few potential CDU candidates for minister president in this scenario would be Frankfurt Lord Mayor Petra Roth, whose CDU governs with the Greens in the city council. She, however, lacks broad support in the Hesse CDU and is not highly regarded by the Greens. If this option fails, Roland Koch could stay on in a caretaker government without a majority in the parliament, leaving open the possibility that the Hesse SPD could form a minority government at a later date. ¶5. (SBU) Kai Klose, Secretary General of the Hesse Greens, told Pol Spec that the Green Party would have to consider the Jamaica option if Koch resigned. With the Greens and the CDU leaning toward forming a government in Hamburg, the Hesse Greens would feel obligated to show political leadership and help ward off the rise of the Left Party. The Greens would have (reluctantly) gone along with Ypsilanti's risky plan because of their strong motivation to unseat Koch, but a Jamaica government would be far less controversial for the Greens locally and nationally. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Ypsilanti's plan to ascend to the top post in Hesse with the support of the Left Party has turned into a fiasco for the SPD. Her initiative may not only have cleared the way for the CDU to take the lead in forming a new government, it has also put the SPD's credibility into question, contributed to a drop in the party's and Beck's nationwide poll numbers, and put intra-party infighting on full public display. Ypsilanti and Beck may pay a high political price for their botched gambit. End comment. ¶7. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. POWELL