SPD's New Leadership Faces Challenges on the Left

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002853 DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: SPD's New Leadership Faces Challenges on the Left REF: Frankfurt 2701; Berlin 1231 ¶1. SUMMARY: Newly-chosen SPD national leaders FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Franz Muentefering face the critical task of reuniting a divided party and fending off the rise of the Left Party in the run up to the 2009 federal election. In two western states, Hesse and Saarland, the local SPDs present challenges to the national party as both consider cooperation with the Left as a way to gain power at the state level. The Hesse SPD and Greens are moving forward with plans to form a minority government in November supported by the Left. In Saarland, the SPD faces a strong challenge from the Left and its candidate Oskar Lafontaine in the August 2009 state election and the possibility that forming a coalition with the Left represents its best chance to govern. As the SPD's new right-leaning national leaders plot the way forward, the actions of their left-leaning compatriots in Hesse and Saarland will test Steinmeier and Muenterfering's leadership and credibility. END SUMMARY. Hesse and Saarland SPDs Register Break ¶2. The national Social Democratic Party (SPD) party executive board's September 7 decision to have Frank-Walter Steinmeier become the SPD's Chancellor candidate in 2009 and Franz Muentefering party chairman marked an abrupt move to the right in the party's leadership. While the party executive board approved the change with forty-four votes for, one against and five abstentions, the voting revealed existing fissures in the SPD. State Chairpersons from Hesse and Saarland, Andrea Ypsilanti and Heiko Maas, both abstained while Saarland Bundestag member Ottmar Schreiner was the only board member to vote against the move. The left-leaning parties in Hesse and Saarland support additional rollbacks of economic reform that the new leadership is likely to resist and voting for the leadership change would no doubt have damaged credibility with the party base in both those states. Hesse Stays the Course on Minority Government ¶3. Despite the changes in national leadership, the Hesse SPD plans to move forward with its plan to unseat the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) caretaker government of Minister President Roland Koch by forming a Red-Green minority government supported by the Left Party (see ref A). The vote will take place in the beginning of November. One of Ypsilanti's advisors, Thorsten Schaefer-Guembel, told Pol Spec that the state party will not change its course, even though the new national leaders have previously spoken out against this option. Steinmeier and Muentefering have both stressed that they do not intend to interfere with Ypsilanti's plans, but also emphasized they would not cooperate with the Left on the national level. ¶4. With cooperation between the SPD and the Left also looming in Saarland, the national leadership stands to gain little by taking a hard line in Hesse at a time when it needs to unite the party for the national election. Juergen Walter, the unofficial leader of the conservative wing of the Hesse SPD, agreed, telling Pol Spec that the change in leadership all but guaranteed the success of the minority government plan in Hesse as the national leadership can not risk alienating a local chapter. Without any better options, Steinmeier and Muntefering can only hope that the minority government will succeed in Hesse and serve as proof that the dangers of Left Party cooperation are overstated. Saarland SPD Also Leaning Left ¶5. The election in Saarland scheduled for August 30, 2009 (one month before the federal election) will be an important show-down between the SPD and the Left Party, with the latter led by the populist National Left Party Chairperson Oskar Lafontaine. The Left Party in this western state is now polling at 24%, one point above the SPD. Both sides are fighting for positions on the left of the political spectrum. Lafontaine did not hesitate to argue that the change in SPD's national leadership shows that the SPD has returned to its old reform-oriented politics, while the Left is the only party that represents the have-nots. Saarland SPD leader Maas rejected the argument saying that the SPD has moved decidedly away from its reform agenda. As in Hesse, the Saarland SPD leadership continues to lean left, away from the politics of Steinmeier and Muentefering and may face a tough choice after the election of governing with the Left Party, if it comes out ahead of the Left or being a junior partner in a coalition with the CDU, if the CDU has no other viable coalition options. Maas has opposed the option of being the junior partner in a coalition with the Left. ¶5. COMMENT: Going into the 2009 election, Steinmeier and Muentefering face the daunting task of turning around a divided party and reversing its precipitous drop in popularity. The challenge of uniting the party is exemplified in both Hesse and Saarland where the local parties lean far to the left. Most FRANKFURT 00002853 002 OF 002 importantly, both state parties currently entertain setting a precedent in a western state by working with the Left Party - something at odds with the views of the new national SPD leadership. However, the national leadership appears to have no choice but to allow the state parties to go forward with such plans at this point for the sake of party unity. The challenge for the national SPD will remain to convince voters that developments in these states will not apply at the national level and to present itself as the credible party of social justice and a viable alternative to the CDU. END COMMENT. ¶6. This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. POWELL