Hesse's Ypsilanti Could Again Raise SPD-Left Party

C O N F I D E N T I A L FRANKFURT 001756 DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: Hesse's Ypsilanti Could Again Raise SPD-Left Party Cooperation REF: Frankfurt 0698; Berlin 0265 Classified by: CG Jo Ellen Powell for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: More than four months after the Hesse state elections of January 2008 and more than two months of a CDU minority caretaker government, none of the political parties have been able to find an answer to the ongoing political stalemate. Cooperation on individual legislation in the parliament has generally still functioned well, but coalition calculations are a driving factor for all the parties in every vote. Our discussions with contacts in Hesse's capital, Wiesbaden, have highlighted two scenarios most likely to play out over the next year: a second attempt this fall by SPD chief Andrea Ypsilanti to form a Red-Green coalition with support from the Left Party; or, should that fail, a CDU plan to force new elections for June 2009. END SUMMARY. -------------- SECOND TIME A CHARM? -------------- ¶2. (C) Many political observers from both the SPD and CDU agree that Andrea Ypsilanti will try again to form a minority government, despite the risk of failure and the divisions it could create in the state and national party. Juergen Walter, a leader of the state party's moderate wing, told PolSpec that he expects Ypsilanti to use the state party convention in September to seek a mandate to form a minority government with the Green Party and tolerated by the Left Party. He predicted that the convention would be marked by stark intra-party conflict between moderates and leftists over the direction of the party, with no guarantee that Ypsilanti will prevail. Her close advisor Thorsten Schaefer-Guembel agrees that she will probably try again in the fall, but told PolOff and PolSpec that she is not likely to make a final decision until the summer holidays. ¶3. (SBU) The Left Party, for its part, has not made it easy for the SPD to portray it as an acceptable partner. The party and its chair Willi von Ooyen have taken positions well outside the mainstream in, among other things, opposing ratification of the EU Lisbon Treaty, refusing to welcome the USAREUR/7th Army headquarters in Wiesbaden, and comparing the Office for Protection of the Constitution with the East German Stasi. The party's unwillingness or inability to counter its reputation as an extremist party may win points with its base but �0A;greatly hampers SPD efforts at cooperation. -------------- OR A PATH TO A NEW ELECTION -------------- ¶4. (C) If Ypsilanti is not elected Minister-President in the fall, both CDU and SPD contacts tell us that Minister-President Koch will use the budget process to trigger new elections, most likely in June ¶2009. Wolf-Dieter Adlhoch, political advisor to Koch, spelled out this "exit strategy" to PolOff and PolSpec. Koch will submit a budget for 2009 as late in the year as possible, meaning the issue will not be discussed until February or March. The parties will almost certainly not be able to agree on a new budget, particularly as our SPD contacts say Koch will be sure to submit a budget unpalatable to the other parties. Failure to pass a new budget would dramatically increase the sense of urgency in parliament - the government would go into 2009 on a stripped-down emergency budget, only making payments required by law - and the parliament would almost certainly have to dissolve itself in April. Since new elections would have to be held within six weeks, this timeline would conveniently allow the election to take place on the same day as the European Parliamentary elections in June 2009. -------------- A THIRD SCENARIO -------------- ¶5. (SBU) There is an outside possibility of a three-party coalition, with the FDP and Greens joining one of the big parties. The CDU and SPD have each made overtures to the small parties, but both Koch and Ypsilanti are seen as polarizing figures unlikely to be able to put together such an ideologically broad coalition. We have also heard faint indications that some in the local SPD are considering challenging Ypsilanti's leadership in September, but her broad support in the party makes such a possibility unlikely. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The SPD party convention in September is shaping up as the pivotal moment in Hesse politics. An SPD decision to try again for a Left Party-tolerated coalition with the Greens would be all-or-nothing: either the Minister-Presidency or severe political damage in the event of failure. A second try at a Left Party-supported government would be fraught with risks for the national SPD as well, as it struggles to convince the electorate that it will not consider any cooperation with the Left Party after the 2009 federal election. ¶7. (SBU) New elections in June 2009 appear to be the most likely scenario, particularly considering the significant chance Ypsilanti would fail even if she makes the attempt. Such a scenario would add another election to an already crowded national calendar and put Hesse once again in the middle of the national political scene. With the CDU polling well ahead of the SPD, a new election is probably Koch's best chance to revive his national standing in the CDU. END COMMENT. ¶8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. POWELL