All Eyes on Left Party as Saarland Prepares for State

C O N F I D E N T I A L FRANKFURT 001752 DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: All Eyes on Left Party as Saarland Prepares for State Elections Next Year Classified by: CG Jo Ellen Powell for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The announcement by Oskar Lafontaine, co-chair of the federal Left Party, that he will run as the Left Party's Minister President candidate in next year's Saarland state elections has alarmed the other parties and primes the Left Party for a strong showing. The latest statewide poll suggests the race will be a close fight between the CDU and a potential SPD-Left Party coalition. The Greens and the FDP are polling under the five percent hurdle and face an uphill battle to enter parliament. Moreover, the possibility that the election in Saarland may come only a week or two before the federal election in September 2009 could help the state set the tone in the final run-up to the federal vote. END SUMMARY. -------------- BATTLE OVER A DATE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) While a small state, Saarland could have an outsized impact on federal politics next year if the CDU state government succeeds in fixing an election date that does not coincide with the federal election, which is expected be on either September 20 or 27, 2009. The CDU's politically correct explanation for its position is that it does not want the state elections to be overshadowed by the federal vote, but their motivation more likely stems from an assessment (which Minister-President Peter Mueller even conceded publicly) that the party does better in low-turnout elections. A state election before the federal vote could also be intensely embarrassing for the national SPD if the Left Party does well, particularly if the SPD and Left Party have a combined majority, which would prompt a wave of coalition speculation that could harm the national party. All other opposition parties want to hold the election on the same day as the federal election, but the all-CDU government will ultimately make the decision. It is unclear when a date will be set. -------------- THE 800 LB GORILLA: THE LAFONTAINE FACTOR -------------- ¶3. (SBU) With native son and federal Left Party chair Oskar Lafontaine at the head of the ticket, the Saarland Left Party is poised to score its highest vote total in any western election, with estimates by observers of all political stripes that the party could receive as much as 20% of the vote. The latest credible poll puts �0A;the Left Party at 19%, the SPD at 26% and the CDU at 43%. The party is well aware of its opportunity to make a national splash: Rolf Linsler, chairman for the Saarland Left Party, told PolOffs and PolSpec (with a little hyperbole) that all eyes in Germany will be on the Saarland in 2009, since it will be the ultimate test for the Left Party in the west and of the SPD's ability to deal with it. The party owes a good deal of its relatively high poll ratings to Lafontaine, who served as SDP Minister-President in Saarland from 1985-1998. His candidacy is probably more a political ploy than a serious bid for the Minister-Presidency -- the SPD has ruled out serving in a Lafontaine government -- but his presence on the Left Party list will clearly have an electoral impact. -------------- SPD ON THE SPOT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Local conditions put the Saarland SPD in an even trickier electoral position than in the rest of Germany. The party's leader, Heiko Maas, cannot match the star power of Lafontaine (under whom he once served as Germany's youngest state minister) and the two-term CDU incumbent Mueller, so the SPD will have to fight hard simply to finish in second place, ahead of the Left Party. Moreover, the state party could end up in the national spotlight if the SPD and Left Party combine for a majority of seats, as its decision on a leftist coalition may be seen as an indication of the SPD's direction nationwide. Local observers insist such a comparison would be unwarranted: they say the Left Party here is less radical than elsewhere and therefore a less problematic partner. Such details, however, are likely to be lost in the national coverage. Maas told PolOffs and PolSpec that serving as a junior partner to the Left Party was completely out of the question, but he would not rule out taking the lead role in a leftist coalition. -------------- CDU GOES FOR ALL OR NOTHING -------------- ¶5. (C) Stefan Toscani, CDU General Secretary, told us that the CDU is campaigning under the assumption that it will need another absolute majority to remain in government. He largely dismissed the FDP's chances of making it into the government and assessed that the SPD would prefer a coalition with the Left Party, assuming it would be the senior party, to a grand coalition. The CDU plans to focus much of its rhetoric on Lafontaine, using his extensive record in the state to focus on his past failures in areas such as education and public security. Toscani conceded that it will be a neck-and-neck race between the CDU on one side and the combined SPD and Left Party vote. -------------- LOOKING BEYOND COAL -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Despite the industry's decline in the region, the future of Saarland's coal mines is likely to be a central issue in the campaign. Current CDU Minister President Mueller, who has governed the Saarland with a CDU absolute majority since 1999, implemented a substantial structural reform that has helped move the Saarland economy away from its traditional reliance on coal and steel. After the extensive coal mines in the region were blamed for an earthquake in February 2008 registering 4.5 on the Richter scale, Mueller ordered an immediate stop to activity in the remaining coal mines. Even with the previous evolution of the economy away from coal, the move will cost 3,000 jobs in the short term, and supporters of coal mining say that a total of 10,000 jobs may eventually be at stake. The Left Party has latched on to the issue and has said that coal mining must continue despite the environmental costs. While such a stance does not seem practical in the wake of the earthquake, it may lure away some SPD voters with a strong financial or emotional attachment to the coal industry. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The Saarland is a nearly ideal western electoral arena for the Left Party, since it can rely on loyalty to Oskar Lafontaine, discontent with the move from heavy industry to a more modern economy, and an SPD lacking in compelling personalities. For the 2009 federal election, a best case result for the SPD in the Saarland state elections may actually be a CDU absolute majority, as the national party could then avoid questions over a coalition with the Left Party in Saarland. But should the CDU fall short, the state SPD leadership made it clear to us that the party is more than ready to consider being a senior partner in a coalition with the Left Party. That would make Saarland, depending on one's perspective, either a potential model for future coalitions or a costly distraction for a national party that, so far, rejects any cooperation with the Left at the federal level. (See SEPTEL) END COMMENT. ¶8. This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. POWELL