Hesse Election Preview: CDU's Koch Steals the Headlines in

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000124 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: Hesse Election Preview: CDU's Koch Steals the Headlines in Close Race REF: Berlin 0022; Frankfurt 4380 Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. ¶1. SUMMARY. Two weeks before the state elections in Hesse, Roland Koch (CDU) has made the controversial issue of immigrant juvenile crime a centerpiece of his campaign. The move has captured media attention and stolen the spotlight from rival parties in an election that, along with two others in Germany this winter, will be closely watched as portents of what might happen in the 2009 federal election. While Koch has succeeded in putting his opponents off balance, his poll numbers still show him in danger of losing the absolute majority he now enjoys and in need of a coalition partner. His divisive campaign tactics and the possible entry of the Left Party into the Hesse state parliament could create a political stalemate after the election where few desirable coalition options are possible. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- Immigrant Juvenile Crime: Unexpected Campaign Issue -------------- -------------- ¶2. In a December 27 interview with the "Bild-Zeitung" newspaper, Hesse's Minister President Roland Koch (CDU) commented on a much-publicized recent attack on a pensioner by two foreign-born youths in the Munich subway, calling for tougher punishments for immigrant juvenile offenders. His statements made national headlines and have become the key issue in his bid for a third term in the January 27 state election. National CDU politicians such as Chancellor Angela Merkel and Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have rallied in support of Koch's call for tougher sentences, seeing a CDU victory in Hesse as essential for the prospects of the national party in the national 2009 elections. ¶3. Wolf-Dieter Adlhoch, Koch's executive assistant, told Pol Specialist in December 2007 that the CDU needed to find a key theme in its campaign in order to differentiate itself from the Social Democratic Party (SPD),saying that the current liberal direction of the national CDU is "poisonous for Koch." Known as a tough campaigner and a leading conservative voice in the CDU, Koch had previously used the issue of dual citizenship laws to win an upset victory in his 1999 campaign, stating famously that "Germany is not a nation of immigrants." ¶4. Both national and local SPD politicians have taken Koch's bait and spoken out against the call for tougher sentencing for youth, saying that current laws are adequate. The Hesse SPD had based its campaign on the issue of a national minimum wage, with a referendum on the issue led by Hesse SPD leader Andrea Ypsilanti, but the issue has now been buried by the CDU's more sensationalist theme. Important local issues such as education reform and airport expansion have also fallen by the wayside as the CDU attempts to score points on an issue it sees as its strength: law and order. The Hesse SPD even enlisted former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in the campaign, who accused Koch of doing little about crime in his nine years in office. -------------- Coalition Politics: Few Desirable Options -------------- ¶5. In running a divisive campaign, Koch is banking on either retaining his outright majority (which few expect) or forming a coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP). A January 9 Infratest poll gives the CDU 40%, the SPD 35%, the FDP 9%, the Greens 9% and The Left 4%, making the race too close to call. Both the CDU and the SPD have described a Grand Coalition as a "worst-case scenario." A CDU-Green coalition is highly unlikely, especially given the long-standing personal antipathy between Roland Koch and Green Party Chairman Tarek Al-Wazir, who himself has criticized Koch's approach to juvenile crime. Markus Bocklet, Green party state parliament member, however, speculated to Pol Specialist that a move by Al-Wazir to a position in the national Green party could clear the way for such a coalition. The CDU's most likely coalition partner is the FDP, which has little enthusiasm for Koch's law-and-order campaign, but sees the CDU as its only desirable option. ¶6. The Left Party is a major wild card in the election. In its first campaign in Hesse, the party has consistently polled around the 5% level required for a party to enter the parliament and has taken supporters away from the Greens and the SPD. The three leftist parties (SPD, Greens and The Left Party) could emerge on election night with a combined majority but with too many differences and animosities to form a coalition. Willi van Ooyen, leading candidate for The Left Party, told Poloff that he is open to a coalition but the SPD and the Greens have vociferously ruled out such a possibility. SPD caucus members told Pol Specialist that they prefer a coalition with the Greens, but would also consider bringing in the FDP if necessary. FRANKFURT 00000124 002 OF 002 ¶7. COMMENT: According to opinion surveys, voters in Hesse think that education and social justice are the most important issues. Roland Koch has done relatively little to address these issues in his campaign. He has instead seized on the immigrant juvenile crime issue to energize his conservative base in the face of voter fatigue with his government after nine years in office. While stealing the headlines, the move has not as yet resulted in a clear surge of support, leaving pundits to speculate on his next move. Some expect him to speak out more aggressively against The Left Party, which he frequently calls "the communists," playing to voter fears of an all-left government. The success (or lack thereof) of the hard-line electoral tactics of the Hesse CDU will be closely watched by the more centrist national party level as a possible indicator of voter sentiment next year. END COMMENT ¶8. This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. POWELL