NDJAMENA 005: CIVIL SOCIETY WARNS OF PRECARIOUS POLITICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 FEST TWO 000013 SIPDIS SIPDIS PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS ; CAPETOWN FOR DAS SWAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV PHUM SU CD SUBJECT: NDJAMENA 005: CIVIL SOCIETY WARNS OF PRECARIOUS POLITICAL AND SECURITY SITUATION REF: NDJAMENA 001 FEST TWO 00000013 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. In the aftermath of the February 2-3 "Battle of N'Djamena," Chadian civil society is expressing new levels of concern at the deteriorating human rights situation and the apparent single-minded determination of President Deby to proceed with a military solution to what they perceive to be a political crisis. In assuring the President military support without obtaining any concessions in return, they fear that the Government of France has given Deby free rein to indulge his most autocratic inclinations. They hope for peace, but are not optimistic that peace will return soon. While recognizing that the armed opposition brings no panacea, and in fact may ignite a new battle for succession, they still yearn for change -- any change. The EAC will meet to discuss the highly unsettled political situation. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Emboffs and the Ambassador met with members of civil society to discuss the current human rights situation and civil society perspectives on the political and security situation. Contacts included one of the few human rights activists remaining in country (the local representative of the League of Human Rights),the President of the business association Patronat, a leading lawyer active in defending the human rights community, two of Chad's most prominent businessmen, the only two members of the core group of the opposition coalition who are not in detention, hiding or exile and a banker with close family ties to President Deby. HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS - BUT WHO WILL BEAR WITNESS? -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Most of Chad's prominent human rights activists -- never many in number -- are in exile in France or biding their time in Cameroon. With their departure, Chad has lost the individuals and organizations who normally take the lead in advocacy and reporting on human rights abuses and liaise with international human rights organizations. As reported reftel, activists Delphine Djiraibe and Jacqueline Modeina sought French protection and are in Paris. Daniel Passalet of the Chadian League of Human Rights informed the Embassy that he had left Chad for Cameroon. The press is equally silenced. To protest the censorship effective under the State of Emergency, the independent press has announced that they will suspend publication indefinitely. FM Liberte, an independent radio station, had already been closed down by the government before the events of February 2-3. Radio France International (RFI) and BBC World Service, two important sources of information for Chadians, are only available on short wave until repairs are made to their antenna (damaged in the fighting). The only source of local information is the national radio (temporarily reporting via another radio station until its equipment is repaired) and the government mouthpiece newspaper "Le Progress." The work permit of the local RFI correspondent, Sonia Roulay, has been suspended and RFI has no other reporters on the ground. Roulay believes that the GOC responded to pressure from the French Government to suspend her permit as a result of French unhappiness with her reporting on the round-up of opposition leaders. She thinks she may soon be expelled. It is hard to understate the importance of RFI as a source of information on Chad and on events in the rest of the world. ¶4. (SBU) In the aftermath of the battle, and under the current State of Emergency, the Government of Chad appears to be casting a wide net to sweep up those individuals who might potentially have had contacts with the rebels or who would be, in the event of an Erdimi/Nouri victory, candidates for membership in a new transitional government. The arrest of Lol Mahamat Choa, former President and widely regarded as a national figure with stature and respect sufficient to lead a transitional government is the best example. Prominent Anakaza Gorans (the group to which Mahamat Nouri belongs) appear to be particularly targeted. For example, well-known Goran businessman Mahamat Abassi (the landlord of some Embassy properties) was taken for questioning on February 20. According to his sons, his name allegedly appeared on a list of members of a "welcome committee for the rebels." Emboffs have also heard rumors of summary executions FEST TWO 00000013 002.2 OF 003 in the palace, with bodies being dumped into the Chari and washing up in Guelfe (Cameroon). Human Rights Watch researcher David Buchbinder is in country investigating these and other reports. On a more prosaic level, systematic sweeps of the popular quartiers - allegedly to find goods that had been looted -- are providing opportunities for poorly disciplined police and gendarmes to terrorize the population and help themselves to goods which they claim are looted. The Governments announcement of an award (about $500) for information on wounded or hiding rebels is the talk of the town. Ironically, according to the local population, the conduct of the rebels during the two day battle was pretty much above reproach in terms of discipline and respect for civilian populations. AFTERMATH OF THE BATTLE - THE POPULATION BEARS THE BRUNT -------------- -------------- -------------- -- ¶5. (SBU) The fact that President Deby "allowed" the battle to enter the capital is a source of great anger to N'djamena residents. More than one contact has expressed outrage at the bombing of the Central Market by government helicopters which put many civilians at risk. In their words: "the President is using our oil money to buy helicopters to bomb his people.". The subsequent looting of much of the city has been cause for reflection. Most can understand looting for economic reasons, but the general view is that the looting was also a statement of rage against the government and the elites. "He has stolen for 17 years; I am only stealing today" a white-bearded gentleman told a contact as he toted off a piece of furniture from a looted house. Government official's houses were targeted. The Minister of Health and the Prime Minister's houses were among those looted. Looters sacked houses of relatives of the President, such as the Deputy Director of the BCC bank who is the President's son-in-law. According to a prominent lawyer with contacts in the government, government ministers are asking themselves "if the government cannot even protect the houses of its Cabinet Ministers, who can it protect?" The vandalizing and looting also suggested that if the people of N'Djamena one day chose to manifest themselves for a political cause, the government forces would be quickly overwhelmed. While political demonstrations are practically unknown, one contact warned that if prominent political opposition leader Yorongar (current whereabouts unknown) were to be killed, the people of N'Djamena - and particularly the southerners who constitute his primary political base - would rise up in anger in a way not seen before. POLITICAL DIALOGUE - THE ONLY WAY AHEAD? -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Looking ahead, there is no disagreement among civil society contacts that a political solution is the only way forward. A military solution cannot be found. All concur that this is a matter that the President needs to resolve with his family members and his other close associates. They have no love for the rebels, but see no sense in a "family argument" wrecking the painfully small gains in stability and development that Chad has been able to achieve over the past few years. Most contacts believe that the President urgently needs to signal to the country that there is a plan for transition. The President could agree not to run again and hand-pick his successor (this individual might even have a good chance of winning in a free election.) The goal may not be the individual, but simply change -- any change. But contacts is also recognized that the President is totally intransigent on the question of stepping down. In the face of his inability to move towards dialogue, contact after contact said that only international pressure - including from the United States - could bring a peaceful solution and spare the Chadians more war. FRENCH POSITION CRITICIZED -------------- -- ¶7. (SBU) In this context, the French Government decision to announce its military support for President Deby has shocked many here, including opposition political party leaders Salibo FEST TWO 00000013 003.2 OF 003 Garba and Jean Alingue . They feel that it is inconceivable that the French could do this without insisting on some sort of preconditions, such as a ceasefire, an opening for discussions, or a public announcement that the President would not run again. Their grave concern is that the President, having scored this diplomatic coup, may now act with complete impunity. Deby "watchers" say that the President, in the meantime, is "changed" "shocked," "in a state of distress," "overreacting" and visibly isolated in the Palace. ZAGHAWA CONCERNS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The concerns of the Zaghawa community represent a special case. Members of the President's clan are concerned that the President is ruining their chances of continuing to enjoy the fruits of power and prestige. Not only are they bearing the brunt of the battlefield losses, but they see President Deby heading down a path which will mean disaster for his country and for his clan. A contact recounted his aged relative lamenting the fact that Chad always been used as a "rear-base" for the Zaghawa when times were tough in Sudan. Now he was concerned that this zone of protection might be on the way out. The targeting of Zaghawa residences during the looting was a harbinger of things to come; one commentator warned that a mini-genocide against the Zaghawa was not out of the question in the event that President Deby was overthrown. Those who ascribe much of Chad's problems to its Sudan adventures - an enterprise of interest to a tiny fraction of the population -- are concerned that the Kobe wing of the clan - represented by the JEM, and highly militarized - is in the ascendancy. They believe that unless Chad is willing to decisively cease its involvement in Darfur matters, Sudan will continue to fan the flames of civil unrest in Chad. WHAT LIES AHEAD: RESUMPTION OF ATTACKS OR COUP D'ETAT? -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) It is commonly assumed that the rebels will seek to strike again. How and where the French would step in to stop them is not known. That the ANT will be useless in the face of a rebel threat is a given for most. Between defections and outright complicity with the rebels it is believed they will not defend the President. On the other hand, a coup d'etat is also seen as a highly plausible scenario given the unhappiness within the army and discontentment within the President's clan. ¶10. (SBU) Embassy EAC met informally on February 21 to discuss Embassy preparedness for a resumption of rebel attacks or coup d'etat. We will meet on February 22 to assess the local security situation and approve next steps. NIGRO