RESPONSE: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/COMMODITY PRICES -

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 000550

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP (SPECK) AND SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR EAID ETRD ECON PGOV PREL TI
SUBJECT: RESPONSE: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/COMMODITY PRICES -
IS GOD MAD AT TAJIKISTAN?

REF: A. STATE 39410

B. DUSHANBE 522

C. DUSHANBE 490

D. DUSHANBE 219

E. 2007 DUSHANBE 1760

F. 2007 DUSHANBE 1753


1. The following responds to Ref A's request to provide a
short summary of the impact of food and agricultural
commodity price increases and to catalogue previous reporting
on the subject.


2. Rising food prices are having a direct and detrimental
impact on all of Embassy Dushanbe's central strategic
objectives: economic growth and development, good governance
and democracy, and peace and stability. As reported in Refs
B through E, Tajikistan is suffering from a complex emergency
whose central elements include food insecurity, a collapsing
agricultural sector, financial sector crisis, and quickly
deteriorating energy infrastructure. Although Tajikistan is
not yet a "failed state," its status as the poorest country
in the former Soviet Union, its history of civil war, and its
strategic location on the porous northern border of
Afghanistan mean that we need to consider early interventions
to address threats to security, including food security.
The Embassy has recommended in referenced reports, our
Mission Strategic Plan, and other documents that the PL-480
Food For Peace program, scheduled to expire after fiscal year
2008, receive continued funding. This program has been our
most effective tool to address emergency and humanitarian
food needs in the short run and to contribute to longer term
economic growth, democratic process, and stability in
Tajikistan's most affected areas. Post is also working with
the Department and USAID to develop a proposal for Section
1210 funding for a complementary community development
program, and requests favorable consideration.


3. Following is a catalogue of recent Embassy Dushanbe
reporting on food security and related problems in
Tajikistan. The reporting should be read in the context of
post's Mission Strategic Plan which went through a senior
interagency review on April 10.

-- Dushanbe 522: Feed the People; Starve Extremism:
Continuing Needs for Food Aid in Tajikistan;
-- Dushanbe 490: Tajikistan Cotton Sector Heading for More
Trouble, as is Banking Sector;
-- Dushanbe 219: Complex and Chronic -- Tajikistan's Emerging
Emergency;
-- 2007 Dushanbe 1760: Rural Tajiks Face Cold and Hunger;
-- 2007 Dushanbe 1753: Tajikistan Misreported $325 Million in
Cotton Debt to International Monetary Fund.


4. Since the most recent reporting cable on April 15 (ref
B),there have been some additional developments. Early
reports of a serious locust infestation in southern
Tajikistan's main agricultural belt have been characterized
as "the worst in decades" by Food and Agriculture
Organization officials. The extent of the damage to Tajik
crops is not yet known. The local and regional press has
carried stories over the past week about a suspension of
exports of wheat from Kazakhstan. Wheat is Tajikistan's
major food staple and since Tajikistan imports approximately
60% of all wheat consumed from Kazakhstan, such a suspension
would lead to a sharp decline in food supplies with unknown
consequences in terms of governance and security. This
barrage of bad news, high prices, and scarce food has sparked
a sense of panic among Tajik consumers, prompting questions
Qa sense of panic among Tajik consumers, prompting questions
such as, "Is God mad at Tajikistan?"
HUSHEK