TIFA 2008 - TAJIKS WON'T PLAY, UNLESS IT'S THEIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 000228 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN DEPT PASS USTR USDOC FOR ITA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013 TAGS: EINV ETRD PGOV PREL TI SUBJECT: TIFA 2008 - TAJIKS WON'T PLAY, UNLESS IT'S THEIR SANDBOX REF: DUSHANBE 185 Classified By: Ambassador Tracey Jacobson; reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Government of Tajikistan threatened to not participate in the 2008 Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) conference, and in regional consultations with the EU Troika, unless one of these two meetings is held in Dushanbe. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In his first meeting with DCM, the new Director for European and American Affairs, Husrav Nosiri, used the occasion to deliver two sternly worded demarches -- one complaining about "a very serious security incident" and the other threatening to refrain from participating in the Central Asian Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) meeting this coming summer. For the second demarche, Nosiri invited the new European Commission representative too, making this a trilateral demarche, and linking the TIFA decision to the upcoming EU Troika consultations with Central Asian governments, slated for Ashgabat this spring. In both cases, Nosiri read from a prepared Russian language text and declined to pass us anything in writing. TIFA 2008 and EU Troika -------------- ¶3. (C) Nosiri stated that the Tajik embassies in Washington and Brussels had reported that the USG and EU intended to hold their respective meetings (TIFA and the Troika-Central Asia) in Ashgabat rather than in Dushanbe, and that the Government of Tajikistan was "disappointed" by these apparent decisions. If the USG and EU did not reconsider their decisions and agree to hold at least one of the two meetings in Dushanbe, then Tajikistan would refuse to participate in either meeting, and "reserved its right to cease its participation in these mechanisms." ¶4. (C) Reading from his prepared script, Nosiri said that the simultaneous decisions by Washington and Brussels indicated to Dushanbe that our countries were more interested in Turkmenistan's natural resources than honoring their commitments. The "commitments" Nosiri was referring to in the case of TIFA date from the last TIFA meeting in Washington, where Tajik Economics Minister Bobozoda offered to host the summer 2008 meeting in Dushanbe. At that time, TIFA members thanked Tajikistan for its offer and the Tajik Government considered this a done deal. In the case of the EU Troika meeting, Nosiri claimed that Tajik Foreign Minister Zarifi was the first to propose the idea of having the ministerial-level Troika meet collectively with Central Asian counterparts in Central Asia itself. The Foreign Minister was reportedly shocked to hear that "his idea" resulted in another high profile meeting for Ashgabat. ¶4. (C) The DCM explained that the decision where to host the TIFA is not Washington's decision to make alone. He asked Nosiri whether Dushanbe had been in touch with Ashgabat about this dispute; Nosiri acknowledged that Tajikistan has not discussed its TIFA invitation with any of its neighbors. The DCM explained that international interest in Turkmenistan has increased recently, not because of its natural resources, but because of a perceived opening toward democracy. The trend line in Tajikistan, on the other hand, is toward less space for civil society, as shown, for example, by the latest rejection of National Democratic Institute's application for registration. Nosiri reiterated that the Foreign Minister Qregistration. Nosiri reiterated that the Foreign Minister expects a response directly from Washington (and from Brussels). "A Very Serious Security Incident" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Nosiri also read a prepared demarche concerning an incident two weeks ago in which Americans participating in the popular running club, the Hash House Harriers, were briefly stopped by security officials while setting a trail in front of the Ministry of Interior and State Committee for National Security headquarters buildings. Nosiri explained that Tajik security officials were deeply concerned by the "unusual and unacceptable" behavior involving placing shredded paper and chalk marks "around the perimeter of sensitive government installations." The DCM explained that the running club included participants from many countries including Tajikistan, was a popular pastime all over the world, and had been active in Dushanbe for years. He agreed to pass word to the club not to set the trail again in front of these ministries. Nosiri seemed satisfied with the informal agreement but never cracked a smile at the description of the eccentric running club. Comment -- Settling the TIFA Question -------------- ¶6. (C) TIFA will only really produce results when the Central Asians themselves use it as a venue to discuss issues and find solutions. With that in mind, Embassy believes the Central Asian members themselves should decide who will host the next TIFA conference. The United States should avoid anointing one or another host, but the Department could play a positive role in resolving the current dispute by helping the two governments reach a joint decision. For example, SCA Acting DAS Pamela Spratlen might consider inviting Tajik Ambassador Shirinov and his Turkmen colleague to discuss the TIFA venue. The ultimatum presented by Nosiri no doubt comes straight from Foreign Minister Zarifi who sees his reputation on the line. His similarly petulant reaction to the announcement that U.S. energy company AES was suspending its operations in Tajikistan and his failure to attract other U.S. or foreign investors may indicate he's feeling pressure to produce in order to keep his job. JACOBSON