SHOOTOUT IN GARM: UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 000216 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV ASEC PTER TI SUBJECT: SHOOTOUT IN GARM: UPDATE REF: DUSHANBE 189 Classified By: Ambassador Tracey A. Jacobson; reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The killing of Oleg Zakharchenko, the head of OMON, the Interior Ministry,s elite police squad, appears to have been the result of a miscalculation by a local Interior Ministry official in Garm, who believed he could resist arrest and face down the consequences. We have been unable to confirm some key aspects of the incident, but it is unlikely that it will touch off broader unrest in the short term. The significance of the incident, however, will depend on perceptions of the government,s response. The GOTI cannot afford to appear either ineffectual or too heavy-handed in its handling of this incident. End summary. Exact Course of Events Unclear -------------- ¶2. (C) We have spoken to journalists and security personnel regarding the shootout in Garm on February 2, in which Zakharchenko was killed (reftel). Details remain sketchy, but we can piece together a rough outline of what happened. The Interior Ministry had come up with an elaborate plan to arrest Mirzokhuja Ahmadov, the Chief of the Ministry,s Organized Crime Section in Garm. On February 1, two Interior Ministry officials traveled from Dushanbe to conduct a general meeting with personnel at the Interior Ministry,s office in Garm. They spent the night in Garm, and went to the meeting the following morning, on February 2. One of the Dushanbe officials left the meeting several times to make some calls on his cell phone. During one of the calls, Ahmadov overheard the official saying &everything is OK ) you should come.8 Shortly thereafter, four Dushanbe OMON vehicles (Zakharchenko and his men) pulled up in front of the building. Zakharchenko exited his vehicle alone, approached the building and was shot by a sniper, setting off a fifteen-minute gunfight. At least three of Zakharchenko's men were injured. We do not have figures on the total number of dead and wounded. ¶3. (C) Our sources have told us that Ahmadov received advanced warning of the attempted arrest, and had made sure that men loyal to him were armed and prepared to fight back. Although we cannot confirm which side started the shooting, our assessment is that Ahmadov's men initiated the attack. Prior reports that Ahmadov had been fired from the Ministry a month ago appear to be inaccurate. ¶4. (SBU) It does not appear that Ahmadov fled after the incident. He remained in his office and called for a full investigation. On February 6, he was spotted in the office of the local prosecutor, presumably giving his version of the events in the context of a criminal investigation. Ahmadov was a Small Fry -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Rumors have been circulating about Ahmadov,s connections and support. He is a former fighter with the United Tajik Opposition who was integrated into the Interior Ministry in Garm under the peace agreement in 1997. He claims to have 100 &loyal men,8 and to have the support of some former warlords such as Mahmadruzi Iskanarov, who is currently in prison. He claims that in the last 10 years, there have been 5 assassination attempts against him (this being the 5th). ¶6. (SBU) Ahmadov very likely has engaged in dubious activity in Garm. He may be the head of a local crime syndicate; some have claimed that he &controls8 a local coal mine, and Qhave claimed that he &controls8 a local coal mine, and others have classified him as a &narco-baron.8 Nevertheless, he does not have a national profile, and his influence appears to be limited to Garm. Zakharchenko was well-regarded by those in the law enforcement and international communities. He was considered to be a competent professional and apolitical. An Isolated Incident, But Potential for Wider Significance -------------- ¶7. (C) Worries that the incident may touch off broader violence are likely overblown. The general population is deeply averse to rekindling the violence of the civil war, and little information about the incident has reached the public at large. Members of the opposition Islamic Revival Party have denounced the incident, and former United Tajik Opposition figures have been careful to distance themselves from Ahmadov. The law enforcement community has rallied around Zakharchenko,s death. Ahmadov seems to have overestimated his ability to inspire support and is in a very tenuous position. While it appears that a criminal investigation is ongoing, we understand that the Interior Ministry is planning to arrest Ahmadov. Our sources have told us that the Interior Ministry has been very deliberate in planning its arrest operation, and that they have also consulted Tajik military authorities. There is also a rumor that Tajik officials have consulted with Russia,s 201st military brigade. ¶8. (C) Comment: The Tajik authorities, response will determine the significance of the incident. The shootout occurred at a time when general dissatisfaction with President Rahmon,s government is higher, due to nationwide electricity shortages and sharply higher food prices. A response that is perceived as being soft or not concerted could signal to opponents that the regime is weak. A response that looks too heavy-handed could add to the overall disaffection with the government. End Comment. JACOBSON