ELECTORAL REFORM IN TAJIKISTAN - DON'T BET ON IT

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001498 DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM EAID KDEM PGOV TI SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORM IN TAJIKISTAN - DON'T BET ON IT REF: Dushanbe 433 ¶1. (SBU) Representatives from OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) visited Dushanbe last week to speak about amending electoral laws before the elections in 2010. In conjunction with this visit, OSCE held a roundtable on December 3 attended by representatives of political parties, the government, and civil society organizations. While observers of the roundtable were treated to some entertaining theatrics, it appears that the prospects for meaningful electoral reforms are slim to none. End Summary. SEVERAL YEARS OF KNOWING WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE ¶2. (U) Representatives from OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) were in Dushanbe last week to speak to Tajik officials about amending the country's electoral laws prior to the country's next elections in 2010. In 2006 and 2007, ODIHR issued several reports outlining necessary reforms to the country's electoral infrastructure; they found that the 2006 elections "did not fully test democratic electoral practices." In 2008, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, with USAID funding, brought together political party members to agree on a set of recommendations for changes to the country's election laws (reftel). These suggested changes are almost identical to the issues raised in ODIHR reports. ¶3. (U) In conjunction with the visit, OSCE held a roundtable on December 3 attended by representatives of political parties, the government, and civil society organizations. During the meeting Mats Lindberg, an ODIHR Election Adviser, raised 25 of the most pressing areas for reform, covering the entire spectrum of the electoral process: accountability for election violations; abolishing or amending election law provisions and enacting new legislation; improving electoral administration; establishing a fair environment for campaigning; and helping political parties to become more professional. GOVERNMENT LIP SERVICE ¶4. (U) Government representatives spoke in generalities about broad concepts of democracy. Muhibullo Dodojonov, the Deputy Head of the Central Election Commission, said "we need to move forward," and "transparency is important to us." Yusuf Salimov, the Head of the Department of Constitutional Guarantees and Citizens' Rights in President Rahmon's executive office, said that "our goal is to have transparent and democratic elections." Government officials, however, either downplayed or ignored the significant deficiencies outlined by ODIHR. Salimov said that in the 2006 elections, "observers said that there were some minor mistakes," but that overall the country has a "framework for fair elections." Mirzoali Boltuyev, the Head of the Central Election Commission, said that elections were "based in law," and that he was committed to fairly implementing that law. AND NOW, THE THEATER ¶5. (U) During the discussion session, Konrad Olszewski, the Deputy Head of ODIHR's Election Department, pointed out that many have reported on the major deficiencies in the countrys electoral framework for years, and he asked about the status of the recommendations for reforms. He expressed concern about the fact that elections were fast approaching (February 2010),and any changes to the legislation should be enacted at least six months ahead of the elections. The moderator, the head of an association of political scientists, moved on, inviting others to make general comments on the topic. Confused by the unwillingness to address Olszewskis question directly, PolOff asked if it was going to be QOlszewskis question directly, PolOff asked if it was going to be left unanswered. ¶6. (U) No one ever did actually answer the question, although Saifullo Safarov, the Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic Research, a government think tank, did say that government experts had received the recommendations and "are reviewing them." Ashurboi Imamov, a retired law professor, asked why the recommendations had not been submitted to parliament, so that deputies could discuss them. Again, this question went unanswered. ¶7. (U) Muhiddin Kabiri, the Head of the Islamic Revival Party, seized on the opportunity to speak while journalists were still at the meeting. He lamented that electoral reform was occasionally raised as a topic, but that nothing was actually done about it. Shodi Shabdolov, the head of the Communist Party who is generally thought of as a supporter of President Rahmon, agreed with Kabiri. Davlatali Davlatzoda, the Deputy Head of President Rahmon's People's Democratic Party, reminded everyone that it was "important to respect the Constitution, and the Constitution respects the rights and duties of the President of the country." After Kabiri left the room, Boltuyev, the head of the Central Election Commission, criticized Kabiri for criticizing Tajikistan's electoral record. LET'S STOP WASTING TIME ¶8. (SBU) Comment: It would be unwise to expect any meaningful reform in the near future; the Government of Tajikistan does not have the will to enact such reforms. The acts put on by the political party representatives were met with skeptical glances from civil society representatives; Kabiri was playing to the press, Shabdolov was pretending to be an opposition politician, and Davlatzoda rambled until he could finally reassert the greatness of President Rahmon. ¶9. (SBU) Comment continued: This meeting underscores the inability of the international community to engage with Tajikistan on a discussion of political reform. NGOs and international organizations sponsor many of these kinds of meetings, but productive discussions are rare. When government officials say something blatantly false or misleading, local and international interlocutors rarely confront them. When participants ask penetrating questions, moderators generally attempt to avoid confrontation. When the international community manages to engage officials in a discussion on the issues, it quickly becomes clear that the Government is against meaningful reform. This is unfortunate, since many Tajiks are able and willing to contribute to an active civil society. In a separate meeting on December 2, Olszewski, who had worked for the UN in Dushanbe several years ago, said that Tajikistan was "regressing politically," and he questioned whether it was even worth it for ODIHR to monitoring elections in Tajikistan. End comment. QUAST